Super Micro craters on report that Oracle canceled a more than $1 billion contract
GE Vernova and Vertiv are giving us a glimpse into the future of the AI boom
ServiceNow’s woes are dragging the entire software sector down
TSMC’s ADRs jumped 3% in premarket trading on Friday after the island’s financial regulator announced plans to ease limits on funds’ allocations to single funds.
Previously, active fund managers were limited to allocating up to a maximum of 10% of their net assets into any one company. Under the revised framework, local equity funds and active exchange traded funds that solely invest in Taiwanese stocks can allocate up to 25% of their assets in any listed company if it has a weighting above 10% in the Taiwan Stock Exchange.
The new rule, announced Thursday, will come into effect after the regulator issues an order on Friday. Relaxing the long-standing rule will mean fewer restrictions on local money managers to take full advantage of TSMC’s skyrocketing share price in recent years. TSMC, now Asia’s largest company by market cap, has seen its share price surge 150% in the past year — adding more to its gains in the last few days after crushing estimates in its first-quarter results.
TSMC is currently the only company that meets that 10% criterion, holding some 44% weight in Taiwan’s benchmark index, though the latest change also moved other large-cap Taiwanese stocks higher on Friday.
A strong set of Q1 results and Q2 guidance from Intel is sending shares of fellow CPU sellers Arm Holdings and Advanced Micro Devices about 6% and 4% higher in postmarket trading, respectively.
Intel’s robust report is seemingly a rising tide that lifts all boats in the industry, not just a company-specific dynamic.
Arm recently pivoted to designing and selling CPUs for data center customers (like Meta!) in addition to its long-standing business of licensing out the design architecture.
And AMD, of course, has been a well-established giant in the space before it ever started offering GPUs.
It’s the latest reminder that the AI boom isn’t just juicing demand for the most advanced chips, but also memory, older-school units, and a wide array of hardware.
You better belieb it. After Justin Bieber headlined the Coachella Valley Music & Arts Festival in Indio, California, Billboard reports the pop star is experiencing the biggest non-Super Bowl catalog bump this year, with his music tripling in streams just days after his first set on April 11.
Following Bieber’s performance on Weekend 2 at Coachella on April 18 (which included appearances from Billie Eilish and SZA), his streams climbed even higher.
On Monday (April 20), Bieber’s streams reached a new high for the year, amassing 32.4 million official on-demand US streams, according to Luminate, which is a 12% increase from his total the previous Monday (just over 29 million) and a 5% gain from the previous Tuesday (30.9 million), his previous high-water mark for 2026.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
Since the Coachella bump, he’s had a total of six days with at least 30 million streams, compared with only four days in all of 2025, when he released his “Swag” album.
Spotify reported that following Bieber’s first Coachella set, the pop star reached No. 1 on Spotify’s Global Top Artist chart, with his catalog surpassing 77 million streams in a single day, which marked his biggest streaming day of the year.
While prediction markets currently show that Bruno Mars is in the lead at 74% for the artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of April, Bieber could slowly catch up with a week left in the month. The “Baby” singer is currently in second place, with his odds at 27%.
On Monday (April 20), Bieber’s streams reached a new high for the year, amassing 32.4 million official on-demand US streams, according to Luminate, which is a 12% increase from his total the previous Monday (just over 29 million) and a 5% gain from the previous Tuesday (30.9 million), his previous high-water mark for 2026.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
Since the Coachella bump, he’s had a total of six days with at least 30 million streams, compared with only four days in all of 2025, when he released his “Swag” album.
Spotify reported that following Bieber’s first Coachella set, the pop star reached No. 1 on Spotify’s Global Top Artist chart, with his catalog surpassing 77 million streams in a single day, which marked his biggest streaming day of the year.
While prediction markets currently show that Bruno Mars is in the lead at 74% for the artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of April, Bieber could slowly catch up with a week left in the month. The “Baby” singer is currently in second place, with his odds at 27%.
Intel shares surged in after-hours trading Thursday after the semiconductor giant reported much better-than-expected Q1 earnings and sales numbers, as well as robust guidance for Q2.
Intel reported:
Q1 revenue of $13.6 billion vs. a consensus expectation for $12.42 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 vs. the $0.02 consensus estimate from FactSet.
A forecast for Q2 sales of between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion vs. analysts’ $13.11 billion expectation.
A forecast for adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.20 vs. Wall Street expectations for $0.10.
“The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic. This shift is significantly increasing the need for Intel’s CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings,” Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said in the company’s earnings release.
The quarterly result was clearly a surprise to both analysts and investors. Shares were up 15% shortly after the report in after-hours trading — despite having risen roughly 50% already in the month of April before the results were released.
Intel’s results could not be more different from the previous quarter. In its Q4 report, Intel issued lackluster guidance for Q1, which it blamed on a dearth of available silicon wafers it could use to make finished chips. The stock plunged 17% the next day.
“Intel was explicit on the Q4 call that they were living hand-to-mouth on wafers,” Cody Acree, a senior semiconductor analyst at brokerage firm Benchmark/StoneX, said in a brief phone interview with Sherwood News Thursday. “If this kind of upside was possible, than why the ultraconservative guidance?”
The Q1 results are a significant coda to what has been one of the best periods of share price performance for the company in decades. The stock has more than tripled over the last 12 months.
That run-up, however, had seemed to far outpace Intel’s actual business results, resulting in a nosebleed-inducing forward price-to-earnings valuation nearly 100x expected earnings over the next 12 months, dwarfing even the valuations the company was receiving during the peak of the dot-com boom of the 1990s. But the Q1 numbers suggest the market was picking up good vibrations that seem to have been borne out.
Right on the heels of Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7, OpenAI has also released the next incremental improvement to its flagship frontier model.
OpenAI says that ChatGPT 5.5 performs better on complex coding and data analysis tasks, and more carefully follows instructions, even when the instructions are vague.
Importantly, this gain in capability does not mean developers and companies have to shell out for more tokens (as is the case with Claude Opus 4.7) — the model uses fewer tokens that ChatGPT 5.4.
OpenAI says the new model has strengthened safeguards to ensure that the model’s strong cybersecurity capabilities aren’t used for malicious attacks.
Importantly, this gain in capability does not mean developers and companies have to shell out for more tokens (as is the case with Claude Opus 4.7) — the model uses fewer tokens that ChatGPT 5.4.
OpenAI says the new model has strengthened safeguards to ensure that the model’s strong cybersecurity capabilities aren’t used for malicious attacks.
In December, the White House announced a new program to let wealthy foreigners get a shortcut to US citizenship — the “Trump Gold Card.” After paying a $15,000 application fee, passing a vetting process, and ultimately paying a $1 million “contribution,” the applicant gets a card in President Trump’s favorite color that grants the owner US citizenship “in record time.”
So, how many of these rich foreigners have received their shiny ticket to American residency? Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a House committee today that only one of the cards has been issued, but “hundreds” of applications are being reviewed.
In December, Lutnick predicted that the cards could generate up to $1 trillion in revenue.
Drivers can breathe a small sigh of relief... for now. The national average gas price has gone down $0.06 since last week to $4.03 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.
The national average was at $4.09 per gallon a week ago.
Meanwhile, US crude oil prices have gone under $100 per barrel, which has played a part in helping drive down the cost of gas for customers. But how long the downward trend will continue remains uncertain due to instability along the Strait of Hormuz.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
Gas prices are currently the highest they’ve ever been this time of the year going back to 2022, when the national average was $4.11 on April 23.
As we head into the end of April, prediction markets currently show traders pricing in an 81% chance the price of gas could still rise above $4.10 by the end of the month.
Meanwhile, US crude oil prices have gone under $100 per barrel, which has played a part in helping drive down the cost of gas for customers. But how long the downward trend will continue remains uncertain due to instability along the Strait of Hormuz.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
Gas prices are currently the highest they’ve ever been this time of the year going back to 2022, when the national average was $4.11 on April 23.
As we head into the end of April, prediction markets currently show traders pricing in an 81% chance the price of gas could still rise above $4.10 by the end of the month.
Well, here is an absolute banger of a chart from Fundstrat that is sure to simultaneously please and annoy everyone:
Macro data scientist Alex Wang’s chart on the causes of the five best and worst market days during different presidencies demonstrates how much the Oval Office has driven US stock market volatility during President Trump’s second term in office.
My very loose, abstract description of what policymakers do is “try to make things better.” (As for what constitutes “things” and “better,” well, tens of millions of Americans will have to agree to disagree.)
Most of the time, these things the president and Congress pursue are not a massive shock to the financial system, though there’s always a doomsayer warning that something like Obamacare will spell the end for US stocks. And that means most of the time, you can probably expect a positive skew: policymakers will be coming in with stimulus to support the economy and markets in the face of unexpected downside.
Per Fundstrat’s analysis, that clearly hasn’t been the case in the past 15 months. You can look at this one of two ways. Perhaps this period has been a time of such economic stability and impressive earnings growth that some of those other catalysts for massive one-day drops haven’t materialized. We’re blessed to have gotten to enjoy such a solid backdrop! Or you could suggest this is indicative of a fundamentally more activist presidency and more frequent policy decisions that carry higher macroeconomic consequences compared to previous presidencies. We’re doomed to swing wildly based on what we see next on Truth Social!
There have been a lot of wonderful studies released by asset managers on the importance of not missing the 10 best days in the market in any given year. (It’s less often mentioned by folks who have a vested interest in you investing your money about how much better returns would be if you miss the 10 worst days of the year!) The problem is that these sessions are typically clustered so close together that it’s an impossible task to navigate twisted, volatile waters so cleanly.
The upshot: Trump-induced volatility has been noise, with the biggest five losses nearly perfectly canceling out the biggest gains. There’s an underlying non-Trump, mainly AI trend that’s mattered, and that’s probably the main reason the US stock market is where it is.
Rising fuel prices are set to cost Southwest Airlines $1 billion in the second quarter, the carrier said in its investor call on Thursday morning. The airline, which stopped fuel hedging last year, has been rocked by higher prices amid the war in Iran along with the rest of the industry.
“Clearly revenues, and therefore fares, are underneath the increase in fuel. So we’ve not caught the increase in fuel by any any stretch of the imagination,” CEO Bob Jordan said.
Despite its fuel expense, Southwest said its earlier forecast of full-year earnings of $4 per share — which would be more than 4x its 2025 profit — could still happen. When it reported earnings after the bell on Wednesday, the airline declined to update the forecast given “ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.”
“There are scenarios where absolutely we could still hit the $4. It depends on, you know, fuel and revenue trends from here. We just felt like it was not productive to introduce a new guide or a range, given how volatile fuel is,” Jordan said.
What3words is crowdfunding for new shareholders... and seeking exits for current ones.
Why do investors like software stocks? Because they have high recurring revenues and extremely high margins.
Why are investors worried about the impact of AI on software stocks? At the most basic level, AI tools reduce the barriers to entry and the cost of creating software.
Nothing shows traders’ willingness to shoot first and ask questions later (or not bother to ask questions at all!) when the crux of the case for owning software seemingly shows cracks more than the reaction to ServiceNow’s Q1 results and updated outlook.
ServiceNow is cratering after the software company’s Q1 margins came in shy of estimates. Full-year guidance for ServiceNow’s gross and operating margins was revised lower, while subscription revenues got a big bump.
There are some extenuating circumstances that cut both ways: integrating recently acquired businesses is the proximate cause of the expected sales bump and operating margin pressure, according to management.
But given how important margins have been to the investment case for software stocks — and the significant profitability premium they’ve enjoyed relative to the S&P 500 as a whole — details don’t seem to matter.
In early February, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called the idea that the software industry would be replaced by AI the “most illogical thing in the world,” arguing that AI agents will leverage existing software tools rather than reinvent them.
(For what it’s worth, my view is that if AI is intelligent in a transcendent way, then reinventing the wheel is absolutely something you should expect. If AI is just fishing in the ocean of human consciousness with the best net possible, then it may work within our existing toolbox. I’m thinking about the story of why it took so long to develop a sewing machine — inventors were trying to mimic the motion of sewing by hand rather than taking a novel mechanical approach.)
But I digress. The bear case for software is that AI tools render many established giants obsolete. But going the way of the woolly mammoth isn’t something that happens overnight. You won’t be able to find any of them to ask, obviously, but I’m told it was a 10,000- to 16,000-year process.
Well before obsolescence comes the threat of incremental substitution. And margin pressure would be one way you’d expect competitive pressures to be absorbed. At the surface level, ServiceNow is affirming a base case for software stocks that traders have spent months fearing, which still apparently hasn’t taken the industry to levels where it’s viewed as attractively valued.
Nothing shows traders’ willingness to shoot first and ask questions later (or not bother to ask questions at all!) when the crux of the case for owning software seemingly shows cracks more than the reaction to ServiceNow’s Q1 results and updated outlook.
ServiceNow is cratering after the software company’s Q1 margins came in shy of estimates. Full-year guidance for ServiceNow’s gross and operating margins was revised lower, while subscription revenues got a big bump.
There are some extenuating circumstances that cut both ways: integrating recently acquired businesses is the proximate cause of the expected sales bump and operating margin pressure, according to management.
But given how important margins have been to the investment case for software stocks — and the significant profitability premium they’ve enjoyed relative to the S&P 500 as a whole — details don’t seem to matter.
In early February, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called the idea that the software industry would be replaced by AI the “most illogical thing in the world,” arguing that AI agents will leverage existing software tools rather than reinvent them.
(For what it’s worth, my view is that if AI is intelligent in a transcendent way, then reinventing the wheel is absolutely something you should expect. If AI is just fishing in the ocean of human consciousness with the best net possible, then it may work within our existing toolbox. I’m thinking about the story of why it took so long to develop a sewing machine — inventors were trying to mimic the motion of sewing by hand rather than taking a novel mechanical approach.)
But I digress. The bear case for software is that AI tools render many established giants obsolete. But going the way of the woolly mammoth isn’t something that happens overnight. You won’t be able to find any of them to ask, obviously, but I’m told it was a 10,000- to 16,000-year process.
Well before obsolescence comes the threat of incremental substitution. And margin pressure would be one way you’d expect competitive pressures to be absorbed. At the surface level, ServiceNow is affirming a base case for software stocks that traders have spent months fearing, which still apparently hasn’t taken the industry to levels where it’s viewed as attractively valued.
Oklo shares were up in early Thursday trading after the revenue-free retail favorite announced a collaboration between itself, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Nvidia “to support critical infrastructure development and accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy.”
Oklo said in its press release:
“Projects under the agreement include integrated full-stack solutions to support nuclear powered AI factories; AI development, including physics and chemistry trained AI models to support nuclear fuel R&D; grid stabilization, reliability, and redundancy studies; materials science efforts focused on plutonium-bearing fuel; and proof of concept work related to the development of a nuclear powered AI factory.”
The release leaves several questions about the agreement between Oklo, Nvidia, and the storied federal nuclear research center unanswered, including which entity, if any, is providing funding, and a timeline for the research to begin or yield possible useful findings. Sherwood News has reached out to Oklo for comment and will update with any additional information.
Oklo’s shares have been ripping lately. They’re up more than 8% in Thursday morning trading, pushing their gains so far this month to more than 50%.
That surge — in shares of a company with no commercially available products and no revenue — is part and parcel, after a few weeks of war-related jitters, of the return of the speculative appetite we saw last fall.
“Projects under the agreement include integrated full-stack solutions to support nuclear powered AI factories; AI development, including physics and chemistry trained AI models to support nuclear fuel R&D; grid stabilization, reliability, and redundancy studies; materials science efforts focused on plutonium-bearing fuel; and proof of concept work related to the development of a nuclear powered AI factory.”
The release leaves several questions about the agreement between Oklo, Nvidia, and the storied federal nuclear research center unanswered, including which entity, if any, is providing funding, and a timeline for the research to begin or yield possible useful findings. Sherwood News has reached out to Oklo for comment and will update with any additional information.
Oklo’s shares have been ripping lately. They’re up more than 8% in Thursday morning trading, pushing their gains so far this month to more than 50%.
That surge — in shares of a company with no commercially available products and no revenue — is part and parcel, after a few weeks of war-related jitters, of the return of the speculative appetite we saw last fall.
Hims providers can now send prescriptions to Eli Lilly’s direct-to-consumer pharmacy.
Super Micro’s share price was just on the verge of filling the gap caused by the bombshell revelation that its cofounder was indicted on allegations of smuggling servers containing Nvidia AI chips into China in violation of US export controls.
Now, that very same event may be fueling the latest rug-pull in the shares.
Super Micro Computer is down sharply in early trading after BlueFin Research said that the AI server company “lost a significant contract” with Oracle worth roughly $1.1 billion to $1.4 billion, according to reporting from Bloomberg. The canceled contract “is believed to be related” to the charges brought against Super Micro’s cofounder.
This contract loss “could be a leading indicator of companies seeking to de-risk their exposure to the server maker following the indictment of its co-founder for smuggling GPUs to China,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Woo Jin Ho, noting that this could weigh on its sales prospects next year. “We view Dell as a leading beneficiary in picking up the order slack.”
Dell, which benefited from the announcement of the allegations back in March, is modestly lower in premarket trading.