Jack Raines4/1/24

Truth Social is crashing and Trump just lost $865 million

Donald Trump’s net worth has declined by $865 million since the market opened today, after Trump Media & Technology Group’s (TMTG) stock price slid by 22% as investors digested an updated 8-K filing where TMTG’s management noted that they had “substantial doubt that TMTG will have sufficient funds to meet its liabilities as they fall due, including liabilities related to promissory notes previously issued by TMTG.”

What does this mean for the former president?

Well, Bloomberg recently pegged Donald Trump’s net worth at $6.5 billion, but the majority of his wealth is tied up in his $3.9 billion stake in Trump Media, with the rest associated with his illiquid real estate properties.

While Trump’s paper stake in TMTG is worth $3.9 billion at current prices, his 78.75 million shares are about 57.1% of all shares outstanding. Only 17 million shares have changed hands in each of the last two days, down from 55 million on March 26th, the first day that TMTG hit the market.

Between declining trading volume and Trump’s six month lockup, it will be difficult for the former president to sell a notable portion of his TMTG holding without sending the stock price even lower.

With this kind of volatility, it might be a rough couple of months for the majority shareholder.

78.75M

(Trump’s shares in Truth Social)

6 Months until Trump can trade

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Upper-income consumers and megacap tech companies are both a) doing well and b) supply constrained.

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Retail traders are “skipping the dip” this time

Here’s one noteworthy feature of the recent market downturn that has the S&P 500 poised for its worst week since reciprocal tariffs were announced in early April: retail traders seemingly aren’t eager to buy the weakness in single stocks the way they used to be.

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain has flagged that retail traders instead appear to be “skipping the dip.”

“In contrast to the behavior observed during the post-Liberation Day selloff, retail investors did not seize the opportunity to buy-the-dip on Tuesday, with a few exceptions such as META,” he wrote of the day where the benchmark US stock index fell 1.2%. “In fact, they scaled back their ETF purchases and turned net sellers in single stocks.”

Then on Thursday, when the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, Jain projected that retail traders sold $261 million in single stocks. Through noon ET on Friday, his daily outflow estimate stands at $851 million.

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Air taxi maker Archer Aviation is deep in the red on Friday morning after reporting its third-quarter results after the bell Thursday. The stock is down more than 12%.

Investors don’t appear to be thrilled about the company’s $650 million direct stock offering, announced alongside its results.

The move marks at least the third major equity raise, and dilution, for Archer this year. The company raised $300 million from a new stock sale in February, and sold $850 million worth of shares in June.

On Archer’s earnings call Thursday, interim CFO Priya Gupta said the company came to the decision after “substantial inbound interest.” According to Gupta, the company has heard from government and commercial partners that liquidity is a “key driver to their decisions of who to partner with.” With its latest share sale, Archer said its total liquidity is more than $2 billion.

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The move marks at least the third major equity raise, and dilution, for Archer this year. The company raised $300 million from a new stock sale in February, and sold $850 million worth of shares in June.

On Archer’s earnings call Thursday, interim CFO Priya Gupta said the company came to the decision after “substantial inbound interest.” According to Gupta, the company has heard from government and commercial partners that liquidity is a “key driver to their decisions of who to partner with.” With its latest share sale, Archer said its total liquidity is more than $2 billion.

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