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Luke Kawa

Applied Materials soars as Wall Street scrambles to boost price targets after “narrative-changing quarter”

Wall Street has fresh conviction that Applied Materials is a winner as the AI boom forces an expansion of chipmaking capacity.

The semicap company reported a top- and bottom-line beat, along with Q2 guidance that exceeded estimates, after the close on Thursday, sending shares sharply higher. Applied Materials is trading up double digits as of 8 a.m. ET.

“This is finally the narrative-changing quarter that we have been waiting for,” wrote Needham & Co. analyst Charles Shi, who boosted his price target to $440 from $390. “With AMAT shaking off the bad China narrative and returning to a strong AI-driven beat-and-raise cycle, we expect AMAT valuation gap vs. peers will narrow as AMAT should re-rate higher.”

The numbers speak for themselves, but the words on the conference call didn’t hurt either.

“Management’s decidedly more constructive tone on the call (relative to a more muted/conservative tone on the last call) we think was underpinned by a sharp acceleration in customer orders and activity levels in the quarter,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, who lifted his price target to $400 from $260.

He spotlighted the strong outlook for its advanced packaging business given “AMAT’s #1 position in HBM where spending is inflecting higher as the absorption of previously shipped equipment concludes and additional capacity/capability is required amid burgeoning demand growth and customers’ rapid technology transitions (HBM3e > HBM4 > HBM4e and beyond).”

Other sell-side shops that took a more more optimistic view and upped their price targets include:

  • Keybanc, up to $450 from $380;

  • Barclays, up to $450 from $360;

  • Wells Fargo, up to $435 from $350;

  • Citi, up to $420 from $400;

  • Morgan Stanley, up to $420 from $364;

  • And Mizuho, up to $410 from $370.

“This is finally the narrative-changing quarter that we have been waiting for,” wrote Needham & Co. analyst Charles Shi, who boosted his price target to $440 from $390. “With AMAT shaking off the bad China narrative and returning to a strong AI-driven beat-and-raise cycle, we expect AMAT valuation gap vs. peers will narrow as AMAT should re-rate higher.”

The numbers speak for themselves, but the words on the conference call didn’t hurt either.

“Management’s decidedly more constructive tone on the call (relative to a more muted/conservative tone on the last call) we think was underpinned by a sharp acceleration in customer orders and activity levels in the quarter,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, who lifted his price target to $400 from $260.

He spotlighted the strong outlook for its advanced packaging business given “AMAT’s #1 position in HBM where spending is inflecting higher as the absorption of previously shipped equipment concludes and additional capacity/capability is required amid burgeoning demand growth and customers’ rapid technology transitions (HBM3e > HBM4 > HBM4e and beyond).”

Other sell-side shops that took a more more optimistic view and upped their price targets include:

  • Keybanc, up to $450 from $380;

  • Barclays, up to $450 from $360;

  • Wells Fargo, up to $435 from $350;

  • Citi, up to $420 from $400;

  • Morgan Stanley, up to $420 from $364;

  • And Mizuho, up to $410 from $370.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

markets

US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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