Markets
People Holding Balloons
Getty Images

In-line core CPI inflation a relief after recent history of January price spikes

The January CPI report is out.

Luke Kawa

It’s January, and inflation isn’t surging. That’s good enough.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows headline inflation rose 0.2% month on month, while the core measure (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) was up 0.3%.

Both of these numbers are rounded to the first decimal place; to the second decimal point, core was a little softer than anticipated.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF edged higher following this release. Economists expected headline inflation to rise 0.26% month on month and core inflation to be up 0.34%, per The Wall Street Journal.

Coming into this report, prediction markets indicated that CPI would be between 0.2% and 0.3%, and that there was nearly an 80% chance of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged at its April decision.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

This inflation report has higher stakes than most because it’s for January. In the higher-inflation environment we’ve been living in for the past few years, January has seen outsized price increases.

The thinking here is that the start of the year is a common time to push through price hikes, and these are sufficiently large, and the inflation backdrop is sufficiently different, that these show up and aren’t filtered out by the seasonal adjustment process.

Since the start of 2022 through 2025, core CPI has risen 0.45% month on month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” writes Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a longstanding exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders aren't fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

markets

POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

markets

GE Aerospace falls after leaving earnings guidance unchanged

Jet engine maker GE Aerospace slid in early trading Tuesday, as its better-than-expected Q1 results were overshadowed by uninspiring guidance.

It reported:

  • Q1 adjusted revenue of $11.61 billion vs. the $10.71 billion consensus expectation.

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $1.86 vs. the $1.60 consensus estimate.

But management left full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance where it was at between $7.10 and $7.40, compared to a consensus expectation of $7.49 from analysts.

“Were holding our full-year guidance across the board, given the macro uncertainty, though, with our strong start to the year, we are trending toward the high end of that range,” CEO Larry Culp said on the conference call.

GE Aerospace hit an air pocket in March as the start of the US war against Iran sent energy prices soaring and hurt expectations for the profitability of commercial carriers. A rally in April had pushed the stock close to positive territory for the year, but it’s solidly in the red after the results today.

markets

Trump says he doesn’t like potential United-American merger but would “love somebody to buy Spirit”

President Trump on Tuesday told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea of a United Airlines-American Airlines merger, but would “love somebody to buy Spirit.”

“Maybe the federal government should help that one,” Trump said on Tuesday, referring to Spirit’s attempts to emerge from bankruptcy.

Trump’s thoughts on United-American are an update from last week, when White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the potential megamerger was “not something the president or the White House have an ​opinion on or are weighing in on.”

American and United shares dipped following Trump’s comments, as did Spirit rival Frontier Airlines.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.