Analyst: “We are now clearly in a bull market phase” as bitcoin hits highest level since February
So far this month, bitcoin is up nearly 15%, surpassing April’s historical average.
Bitcoin jumped past $78,500 Wednesday, its highest level since early February. The asset is up 3% over the past 24 hours as optimism builds following President Trump’s extension of the ceasefire with Iran. So far this month, bitcoin is up 14.77%, surpassing April’s historical average of 11.47%, according to CoinGlass.
Underscoring the enthusiasm, CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 62 (greed), its highest level since late July.
“We are now clearly in a bull market phase, characterized by the market shrugging off negative news, including the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the very recent record DeFi hack of 2026, where $300 million was stolen from KelpDAO. Despite both events occurring only in the past week, bitcoin is breaching new levels and sits at a more than two-month high,” Ishmael Asad, a research analyst at Bitwise, told Sherwood News.
Several analysts echoed the bullish sentiment, citing the realized price as a gauge for a potential upward trajectory.
Zach Pandl, Grayscale head of research, wrote in a post that as the realized price for bitcoin transacted over the last one to three months stands at $74,000, recent buyers are back to breakeven. He added that bitcoin moving higher would indicate that more recent buyers would move into positive profit and loss, a potential signal of the start of a bull market.
Pandl told Sherwood that we are seeing increasing evidence that bitcoin has put in a durable bottom.
“A sustained break above $80K would increase our conviction further. From a fundamental standpoint, progress on the CLARITY Act in the US Senate may hold the key,” Pandl said.
Wave Digital Assets’ head of international portfolio management, Rajiv Sawhney, told Sherwood that the rally was off the back of Trump extending the ceasefire indefinitely, as the market continues to treat these extensions as a path toward eventual resolution rather than a binary risk.
“Hence, outside of total war escalation, any negotiations or prospects for negotiations are, in general, priced into an eventual-resolution end state,” Sawhney said.
Sawhney added, however, that the KelpDAO hack and its knock-on secondary effects remain an overhang for crypto, as lending on Aave, the largest DeFi money market protocol, remains in limbo.
“As such, while BTC may be able to contend with a move higher towards $80K, the broader cryptocurrency complex may not necessarily follow suit,” he said.
Finally, bitcoin ETFs continue to stay in the green, though recording a meager $11.84 million in inflows on Tuesday, stemming solely from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF, and the newly launched Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust.
In April, bitcoin ETFs have registered $1.87 billion in inflows, their best month since October.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Sherwood that the near-term setup looks constructive, with expectations for bitcoin to trade within the $75,000 to $90,000 range in the coming weeks. A move toward the upper end depends on sustained institutional inflows and continued macro stability.
