Analyst says “liquidity conditions, not halvings” are now bitcoin’s primary clock
The breakdown of the four-year cycle removes a key empirical metric that investors relied on.
Bitcoin is holding steady at around $76,000 on Tuesday morning, while bitcoin ETF inflows notched a five-day positive streak. Monday saw $228.3 million in inflows, bringing the month’s total to $1.86 billion, the best showing since October, according to SoSoValue.
Caution still rules, as macro and geopolitical narratives continue to dictate bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
“Crypto is showing a split personality: ETF flows are improving, but structure remains fragile,” Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said.
Speaking of splitting, Misir said that the historical gauge for bitcoin, the halving, does not matter anymore; liquidity does, underscored currently by how it has been reacting to geopolitical shocks, which “now influence price more directly than halving-induced supply shocks.”
He added that the breakdown of the four-year cycle removes a key empirical metric that investors relied on. Without it, bitcoin “behaves more like a macro asset, similar to equities during liquidity cycles, similar to commodities during supply shocks, and influenced by capital flows rather than narrative momentum.”
The second driver for price formation lies in institutional flows, he said, which “have replaced retail reflexivity” from the past.
“Timing bitcoin in this regime requires a shift from calendar-based thinking to signal-based thinking,” he said, adding that with the pattern “losing its predictive power,” risks lie in “trading the past.”
“Investors who anchor to halving narratives risk mis-timing entries and underestimating volatility,” he said.
Misir said that bitcoin remains below the True Market Mean, the average cost basis of active investors, a “historically critical threshold” that it crossed 75 days ago.
“The max drawdown so far has been -20%, and the current performance sits at -5% from entry. Past drawdowns typically extended into months 5-9 before bottoming,” he said, adding that reclaiming TMM would mark a structural shift back into profitability for active investors.
In comparison, the 2018-19 bear market lasted 282 days with a 57% drawdown, while the 2022-23 cycle lasted 339 days with a 56% drawdown, he said.
“The market is stabilizing but not yet healed. The next move hinges on whether institutional demand can offset macro-driven volatility and lingering supply pressure,” he added.
Finally, Misir said that bitcoin is within a structurally important band, with active investors at $85,000 and the short-term holders’ cost basis at $81,300.
“This is not the profile of a euphoric cycle peak or a capitulation bottom. It is a market in transition,” Misir said.
Other experts stressed the increasing importance of ETF flows and institutional participation for bitcoin’s price, which is “creating a more consistent bid than we’ve seen in prior cycles,” Max Kahn, CEO of Digital Wealth Partners, told Sherwood News.
Kahn said he remains optimistic on bitcoin given the current macro backdrop and continued institutional participation, adding that $78,000 to $80,000 is the next range to watch where resistance or profit-taking could occur.
