What analysts expect from Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings
Tesla reports earnings after the bell Wednesday.
When Tesla reports its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings Wednesday, analysts expect its earnings per share and revenue to decline as spending grows from the same period last year.
After Tesla reported disappointing deliveries earlier this month, FactSet’s analyst consensus estimate put Q4 non-GAAP EPS at $0.45, down 38% from last year’s $0.73. Revenue is pegged at $24.8 billion, down 3.5% from last year’s $25.7 billion. Meanwhile, capital expenditures are expected to grow to nearly $3 billion, up from $2.8 billion last year, potentially pressuring free cash flow as margins compress.
At the same time, as Tesla continues to cut prices to move inventory, automotive gross margin will likely continue to fall as well.
On the earnings call, investors will be looking for more details of Tesla’s various forthcoming projects, including timelines for removing safety drivers from Robotaxis, Cybercab production, unsupervised Full Self-Driving rollout, and progress on Tesla’s next-generation chips. In particular, they’ll be listening for how near-term any of these initiatives are, after years of ambitious but shifting timelines.
They’ll also be paying attention to just how much Tesla’s AI ambitions might cost. Last quarter the company noted that capital expenditure would “increase substantially in 2026,” after already trending upward.
