Tesla’s Elon Musk doubles down on “a major rebound in demand” without giving evidence
Saying something aloud doesn’t make it true.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk asserted in a second interview yesterday that his electric car company has turned a corner after producing dismal results last quarter, telling CNBC reporter David Faber, “We’ve seen a major rebound in demand.” Earlier in the day, he told Bloomberg’s Mishal Husain that vehicle sales had “already turned around.”
Both times Musk provided little in the way of evidence.
Here’s the CNBC exchange, which happened right after Musk shared his standard line that the true value of Tesla is in autonomy and robots, and right before had to leave the call for another appointment:
Musk: ...we’ve seen a major rebound in demand at this point. I feel comfortable with—
Faber: You have seen a major rebound in demand?
Musk: Oh yeah.
Faber: You really believe — you have seen that?
Musk: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, look for most people, I mean, when you buy a product, I mean, how much do you care about the political views of the CEO? Or do even know what they are?
Musk came back for a second part of the interview, but the host didn’t pick up the same line of questioning. Musk didn’t provide any details about that demand rebound.
Of course there’s the possibility Musk has internal data that shows a bounce-back in demand, but it’s also worth noting that saying something doesn’t make it true — especially in the case of Musk.
What we do know for sure is that early indicators suggest demand is depressed.
Here are some:
Tesla told its workers it wouldn’t be running the production line next week at its Texas plant, where it produces its bestselling Model Y and its Cybertruck — typically not something you do when you’re trying to keep up with high demand. Business Insider reports that workers were told they could either show up for training and cleaning or use their PTO to take the time off.
When asked about lower sales, Musk continually cites a switch in production to the new Model Y in Q1 as the reason for the softness, as people held off buying it as they awaited the new one. However, demand for the new Model Y also looks soft, as the company is currently offering discounts on it.
April sales data, which represents the first month of Q2, is down in Europe and China, two of the company’s biggest markets besides the US.
While there’s no US data yet, analysts track VIN registrations and dealer inventory, among other data points, to come up with their estimates. The FactSet consensus analyst estimate for Q2 deliveries is 405,000 — 9% below what it delivered last year in Q2. Analysts expect the company to also deliver fewer vehicles in 2025 than it did in 2024, which was itself a disappointing year.
Tesla employees have confirmed the demand problem.
