During President Trump’s first administration, Apple was exempted from a number of tariffs on China thanks to CEO Tim Cook’s amicable relationship with the president. This time around the iPhone maker might not be so lucky.

Morgan Stanley, in a research note this morning, rates the odds of Apple receiving a targeted tariff exemption at just 20%.

“During the first Trump administration, companies had weeks to formally respond to the USTR Section 301 tariff lists and provide feedback/reasons for specific product exemptions. This time, the Trump administration has implemented global tariffs through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which means no formal product list was presented in advance, and there is no official process for requesting tariff exemptions. Therefore, for Apple to receive an exemption, it would have to be a company (or product, i.e. smartphone) specific exemption granted specifically by the President. At this point, we believe it is unlikely (but subject to change).”

Morgan Stanley previously said tariffs would be “calamitous” for IT hardware companies like Apple, whose stock is down 3% today after shedding more than $300 billion in market cap yesterday in its deepest drop since the early pandemic.