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Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon capex
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Capex marks the spot

Big Tech capex approaches $100 billion and Dan Ives loves it

AI spending shows no signs of flagging.

Rani Molla

Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft are approaching a record combined capex spending of nearly $100 billion for the quarter ended in September, as the tech giants plow ahead on AI spending. Their guidance for next year suggests this chart will keep going up and to the right:

Amazon, which reports earnings today, is the only one not expected to hit record purchases of property and equipment for the quarter. The FactSet analyst consensus estimate pegs Amazon’s capital expenditure at $31.9 billion in Q3, down slightly from the $32.2 billion it posted in Q2. (The other companies all reported yesterday.)

For what it’s worth, Wedbush Securities analyst and AI booster Dan Ives loves it. In a trio of notes after earnings, Ives praised their AI spending.

Here’s what he said about Meta:

“While the ultimate level of investment contemplated this year has increased, we believe the spending has been justified, with the infusion of AI capabilities across the company’s ad stack and content recommendation engines driving tangible results for Meta’s Family of Apps and Reality Labs.”

Microsoft:

“MSFT provided another quarter of strong guidance for FY2Q26 as it remains clear that FY26 remains the true inflection year of AI growth for Microsoft with CIOs lining up behind the red ropes to build for deployments in Redmond as the company invests aggressively to capture this opportunity.”

And Alphabet:

“In our view, 3Q performance further validates Alphabet’s position as a leading AI beneficiary, with management already observing tangible results across advertising and cloud.”

On Wednesday, Wedbush announced that the Dan IVES Wedbush AI Revolution ETF, which holds the 30 companies Ives considers the best positioned to cash in on the ongoing boom, surpassed $1 billion in assets under management in less than five months.

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Ahead of Tesla’s earnings report next week, Morgan Stanley has released a note estimating that the company will scale its Robotaxi fleet much more slowly than CEO Elon Musk has said. The firm thinks the automaker will have 1,000 vehicles in its Robotaxi service by the end of 2026 — 500 fewer than Musk estimated a few months ago Tesla would have by the end of 2025.

More key to Tesla’s success, however, will be removing the safety monitors from those rides, which Morgan Stanley says will be a “precursor to personal unsupervised FSD [Full Self-Driving] rollout.” Musk, of course, had also promised to remove safety drivers in Austin by the end of 2025, but driverless rides are still in the testing stage.

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Meta says it’s delivered new AI models internally this month and they’re “very good”

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Bosworth didn’t specify what the models are, though The Wall Street Journal has reported that Meta is working on a large language model and an AI image and video model code-named Avocado and Mango, respectively.

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Two charts that show why Amazon is building a giant physical store

This week Amazon received approval to build a hybrid big-box store and fulfillment center outside Chicago that’s roughly twice the size of a typical Target. Why would the e-commerce giant want to wade into a costly and cumbersome physical store, especially after earlier brick-and-mortar iterations like Amazon Go have failed?

There are at least two reasons. First, despite e-commerce’s rapid growth, the vast majority of retail purchases still happen in physical stores, according to Census Bureau data:

Second, Amazon’s own customers regularly shop at competing big-box retailers: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners found that 93% have also shopped at Walmart. And as Amazon pushes further into groceries — a category still dominated by in-person shopping — CIRP estimates that basically all Amazon customers buy groceries elsewhere.

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