Even Tesla bull Dan Ives predicts “very soft” first-quarter deliveries
He estimates that only 30% of that has to do with Musk, DOGE, and brand damage.
Next week, Tesla will release its first-quarter delivery numbers, a closely watched metric for the electric car company and an indicator of how likely this year’s promised “return to growth” will be.
Monthly data has been bad this year and analyst consensus estimates have been dropping. Now, even Tesla bull Dan Ives expects a “very soft rip the band-aid off 1Q delivery number” of 355,000 to 360,000, which would be a 7% to 8% year-on-year decline, according to a new note from the Wedbush Securities analyst. Earlier this year, his firm had predicted 8% growth in Q1.
Ives concedes that some of Tesla’s damage has been the result of CEO Elon Musk’s recent actions.
“Musk leading DOGE has essentially taken on a life of its own as in the process Tesla has unfortunately become a political symbol globally with protests, violence and demonstrations at dealerships and cars keyed, and a massive ‘TeslaTakedown’ day of action planned by protestors for this Saturday, March 29th.”
Interestingly, Ives estimates this quarter’s decline has 30% to do with “Musk/brand/DOGE” and is 70% related to “timing and non-brand headwind issues.” Still, the bull remains bullish:
“We believe 1Q will be the low point and the Street is starting to look through these numbers to better understand the delivery trajectory the rest of the year with much stronger 2H the key as model refreshes are around the corner.”
The analyst consensus estimate on FactSet is still predicting year-on-year growth, with 417,000 deliveries, but that includes many months-old estimates. Estimates made this month — factoring in monthly sales declines around the world, President Trump’s tariffs, Tesla boycotts, among other headwinds — all predict a decline.
Ives maintains his firms “outperform” rating and price target of $550 — nearly double what it’s trading at currently.
