Analysts’ estimates for Tesla deliveries this year keep dropping
Estimates bumped up and then took a nosedive after the inauguration, and they’ve gone even lower since.
Before Donald Trump was elected president, the average analyst estimate for the number of cars Tesla would sell in 2025 was just north of 2 million. That number jumped ahead of Trump’s victory and inauguration, when the fortunes of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, one of the president’s biggest benefactors, suddenly looked like they were attached to a SpaceX rocket.
The estimates reached their highest point in the last six months just days after Trump’s inauguration, where Musk had a VIP seat on the dais.
Since then, though, it’s been a downward slide. Estimates reached their lowest point this week.
Of course, many other things have happened since then to change analysts’ outlooks, like Tesla posting declining Q4 earnings and changing its own outlook for 2025 from 20% to 30% vehicle sales growth to a less optimistic “return to growth.” Additionally, analysts now have the first two months of 2025 data, mostly showing sales declines around the world in January and February.
Then there’s Musk himself, who in his position at the Department of Government Efficiency has provoked the ire of many citizens, some of whom have called for Tesla boycotts.
While the latest consensus estimate of 1.9 million is much lower than the 2.4 million analysts had predicted a year ago, it’s still higher than 2024’s disappointing 1.79 million, and would in fact represent a return to growth — just a very small one.
