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US Capitol Building Obscured By Steam
US Capitol in Washington, DC (Julia Nikhinson/Bloomberg)

The clock never stops ticking on America’s national debt problem

The Congressional Budget Office warned that the US government could run out of money as early as May — and that’s just the short-term concern.

On Tuesday, the Congressional Budget Office warned that the US government could run out of money to pay its bills in August or even earlier, in a worst-case scenario.

How did we get here?

When the debt ceiling kicked back in at the start of 2025, following the end of a 19-month suspension, it was reset at $36.1 trillion, the amount of debt outstanding at the time.

Since then, the Treasury began relying on temporary accounting maneuvers (known as extraordinary measures) to keep funding the government without breaching the cap. However, even those emergency tactics will run dry by the so-called “X-date” — a date that’s difficult to pin down exactly — which the CBO estimates will likely arrive in August or September, but could come as early as late May if tax revenues come in low or spending runs high.

Unless Congress raises or suspends the ceiling again, the US would start defaulting, missing payments on obligations like Social Security or military salaries.

Zooming out

Indeed, $36 trillion is a number that’s hard to conceptualize. Put another way, Uncle Sam owes about $106,000 for every single person in the United States. Even when compared to the size of the economy itself, the US national debt burden is looking heavy.

National Debt
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As of 2024, federal debt held by the public — about 80% of the total national debt, with the rest made up of money the government owes itself — stood at 98% of US GDP, per the CBO. The last time it came this close was just after World War II, when it peaked at 106%

And it’s not slowing down. According to CBO’s January projection, the debt level is on track to surpass this WWII peak by 2029 and reach 119% of GDP by 2035, largely driven by ballooning interest payments and rising costs for Social Security and Medicare as the population ages.

With default risk looming and debt nearly matching the size of the economy, the fiscal fight is already underway. House Republicans want to raise the ceiling by $4 trillion through a budget bill that bypasses Democrats; Democrats say they’re open to negotiating — just not at the cost of major social programs. 

In January, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, newly appointed under President Trump, said in his confirmation hearing that the US “is not going to default on its debt” under his watch.

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OK, so when was the longest shutdown in US history?

The US government officially shut down at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday after senators failed to agree on a last-minute funding bill. Though initially shrugging off the threat of a shutdown during yesterday’s session, stocks were mildly in the red on Wednesday as investors reacted to what is now the 11th shutdown in the government’s history.

Until this latest shutdown, there had been 20 government funding gaps experienced since 1976 — though not all ended in a full shutdown, with full closure averted in half of those cases.

Indeed, prior to the 1980s, funding gaps didn’t typically have major effects on government operations, with agencies continuing to operate on the basis that the funding would come eventually. However, a more stringent interpretation of the rules led to a stricter appropriations process from the early 1980s onward, with many subsequent funding gaps resulting in a shutdown of affected agencies (unless the gaps were quickly fixed or occurred over a weekend).

Obviously, the duration of the latest shutdown is still unclear, but it will continue until Congress passes a funding bill — most likely via a “continuing resolution,” which has ended every shutdown since 1990. Data analyzed by USAFacts suggest that it might not be a one- or two-day affair, as funding gaps have lengthened in recent years.

Government shutdown patterns
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Indeed, the last shutdown, which began in December 2018, ended up becoming the longest in history, at a whopping 34 days. By the time the government reopened in January 2019, about $3 billion (in 2019 dollars) had been wiped from the GDP in Q4, per data from the Congressional Budget Office, with approximately $18 billion in “federal discretionary spending” delayed over the roughly five-week stretch.

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GM climbs following upgrade, report that Trump administration seeks stake in its lithium mine partner

Shares of General Motors rose more than 2% in premarket trading Wednesday following an upgrade of the stock by UBS from neutral to buy. The firm also hiked its price target for GM by 45% to $81.

Also likely elevating GM was a Reuters report that the Trump administration is exploring taking a 10% stake in Lithium Americas, the automaker’s partner in a yet to open Thacker Pass lithium mine. Shares of Lithium Americas surged 68% in the premarket.

GM, which invested $625 million into the lithium mine last year, holds a 38% stake in the joint venture. The mine is expected to become the Western Hemispheres primary lithium source in 2028, when it’s slated to open, producing enough of the metal to make 800,000 electric vehicle batteries.

Prior to its plans for Lithium Americas, the Trump administration last month said it would take a 10% stake in Intel. In July, it announced a 15% stake in rare earths miner MP Materials.

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