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shutdown watch

Traders are getting more and more pessimistic about the government shutdown ending any time soon

The market expects the shutdown to last well into November.

Walt Hickey

As the government shutdown that began at the beginning of the month enters its fourth week, market pessimism about a speedy resolution to the impasse has grown substantially, based on the prevailing sentiment gleaned from prediction markets data.

In particular, data from the “How long will the government shutdown last?” contract offered by Robinhood allows us to look at granular shifts in how traders perceive the negotiations to be going.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company.)

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The price of an asset resolves to $1 in the event it occurs and $0 in the event it does not. Until that official resolution, the market price of the asset varies, and is a proxy for the percentage chance the market assigns to it happening.

Based on the implied probabilities represented by the prices of different tranches of these contracts, we can see how the median number of expected days of the shutdown have changed.

The priced-in chance of a shutdown lasting over 60 days has now hit 25%, which would mean the government is closed through at least the end of November. As it stands, based on pricing data current to Sunday, the median expected total length of the shutdown is now 44 days, bringing it to mid-November.

If traders anticipated that a resolution to the negotiations was approaching, we would expect to see the number of days remaining in a shutdown decline. If traders price that negotiations are at a stalemate and conditions for a resolution are not moving, we would expect the number of days of the shutdown to increase at a rate of one day per day, and the days remaining to stay flat.

We are not seeing that.

What we’re seeing is something worse: traders are more pessimistic about resolving the shutdown today than they were a little over a week ago. Given that we are today 21 days into shutdown, expectations have shifted.

On October 8, the median expected length of the shutdown in total was 23 days, implying traders expected the shutdown would continue for another 15 days.

As of Sunday, October 19, the median expected total length of the shutdown was 44 days, implying that traders are pricing in another 25 days of shutdown.

Essentially, the market’s saying that we’re further away from a resolution to the shutdown than we were even a week ago — that the situation has deteriorated and not improved.

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New York legislature passes 1-year data center moratorium

The New York state legislature has passed a one-year ban on large data centers in the state.

The bill now heads to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s desk, where it faces an uncertain fate. If Hochul signs the bill, it would become the first such statewide ban to succeed in becoming law.

That’s far from certain, as Hochul has opposed state-level legislation over data centers. In May, Hochul said, “This is a local decision for municipalities, its land use, which is the purview of local governments. It’s not a statewide approach necessarily, but its something Im looking at intensely.”

In April, Maine Gov. Janet Mills vetoed a similar statewide moratorium on data centers.

Opposition to data centers is growing rapidly across the US. A federal data center moratorium bill was introduced in March, and at least 14 states have proposed pauses on data center construction, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

That’s far from certain, as Hochul has opposed state-level legislation over data centers. In May, Hochul said, “This is a local decision for municipalities, its land use, which is the purview of local governments. It’s not a statewide approach necessarily, but its something Im looking at intensely.”

In April, Maine Gov. Janet Mills vetoed a similar statewide moratorium on data centers.

Opposition to data centers is growing rapidly across the US. A federal data center moratorium bill was introduced in March, and at least 14 states have proposed pauses on data center construction, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

EU Commission Vice-President Virkkunen and Commissioner Jorgensen hold press conference

EU proposes “tech sovereignty package” to bolster domestic AI and chip industries

Europe is hastening its breakup with US tech as the Trump administration’s grip on American tech companies tightens.

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White House releases watered-down executive order on AI

The White House released a weakened executive order on AI on Tuesday, a little more than a week after killing a previous version of the order after what was reportedly intense, direct lobbying of the Oval Office by tech executives.

The order’s most significant change to what was reported in late May is a shortened window of voluntary government review of new models from 90 days to 30 days.

After Anthropic’s Mythos model spooked companies and governments around the world, the White House was reportedly ready to respond with an executive order that would have given the government access to unreleased frontier models for up to 90 days before public release, to ensure safety.

Top AI companies were briefed on the proposed executive order, and a White House event with an extensive roster of tech executives was ready to go, but it was killed at the last minute, according to reports. Axios reported that last-minute lobbying by former White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks, along with other tech executives, helped convince President Trump to kill the order. Trump told reporters, “I didn’t like certain aspects of it. I postponed it.”

The now finalized order calls for the creation of an “AI cybersecurity clearinghouse” in concert with the AI industry, and directs national security agencies to develop and maintain a “classified benchmarking process” to review the capabilities of new frontier models.

After Anthropic’s Mythos model spooked companies and governments around the world, the White House was reportedly ready to respond with an executive order that would have given the government access to unreleased frontier models for up to 90 days before public release, to ensure safety.

Top AI companies were briefed on the proposed executive order, and a White House event with an extensive roster of tech executives was ready to go, but it was killed at the last minute, according to reports. Axios reported that last-minute lobbying by former White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks, along with other tech executives, helped convince President Trump to kill the order. Trump told reporters, “I didn’t like certain aspects of it. I postponed it.”

The now finalized order calls for the creation of an “AI cybersecurity clearinghouse” in concert with the AI industry, and directs national security agencies to develop and maintain a “classified benchmarking process” to review the capabilities of new frontier models.

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Sen. Bernie Sanders: US government should own half of big AI companies in an “American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund”

Anti-AI sentiment appears to be on the rise — commencement speakers being booed at the mention of AI, local officials losing their jobs over support for data center deals, and public polling showing a continued unease surrounding AI use.

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) knows how to read the room.

In an op-ed in The New York Times today, Sanders makes the case that today’s leading AI models were built using public works without permission or compensation:

“When a public resource generates wealth, the public should share in that wealth. A.I. is being built on a public resource far more valuable than oil: the accumulated knowledge, creativity and labor of mankind.”

Sanders plans on introducing legislation to create the “American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund.” This unusual proposal would issue a one-time tax of 50% of the big AI companies — such as OpenAI and Anthropic — paid to the US government in the form of stock. The fund would provide direct payments to Americans as it grows, much like Alaska’s “permanent fund,” which issues checks to its residents from 25% of all oil and mineral leases and sales.

While the idea of just handing over half of OpenAI or Anthropic to Uncle Sam sounds crazy, Sanders points out that AI leaders have been suggesting similar ideas recently as a potential solution to massive labor shifts caused by AI that could eliminate whole categories of jobs.

Additionally, President Trump has already signed an executive order to create a plan for a sovereign wealth fund. Trump has also been keen on the US getting a piece of the action, directing the US government to take public stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals.

Sanders also argues the public’s large stakes in these companies would give American taxpayers a seat at the table to “block decisions that hurt our citizens and to push for policies that help them.”

In an op-ed in The New York Times today, Sanders makes the case that today’s leading AI models were built using public works without permission or compensation:

“When a public resource generates wealth, the public should share in that wealth. A.I. is being built on a public resource far more valuable than oil: the accumulated knowledge, creativity and labor of mankind.”

Sanders plans on introducing legislation to create the “American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund.” This unusual proposal would issue a one-time tax of 50% of the big AI companies — such as OpenAI and Anthropic — paid to the US government in the form of stock. The fund would provide direct payments to Americans as it grows, much like Alaska’s “permanent fund,” which issues checks to its residents from 25% of all oil and mineral leases and sales.

While the idea of just handing over half of OpenAI or Anthropic to Uncle Sam sounds crazy, Sanders points out that AI leaders have been suggesting similar ideas recently as a potential solution to massive labor shifts caused by AI that could eliminate whole categories of jobs.

Additionally, President Trump has already signed an executive order to create a plan for a sovereign wealth fund. Trump has also been keen on the US getting a piece of the action, directing the US government to take public stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals.

Sanders also argues the public’s large stakes in these companies would give American taxpayers a seat at the table to “block decisions that hurt our citizens and to push for policies that help them.”

power

US regulators reportedly appear likely to approve Paramount’s Warner Bros. acquisition

US antitrust regulators appear to be leaning toward approval of Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of rival Warner Bros. Discovery, according to a Semafor report.

The DOJ’s apparent positive analysis of the Hollywood megamerger follows a Tuesday meeting between Paramount CEO David Ellison and DOJ staffers including acting antitrust chief Omeed Assefi.

Per Semafor, that meeting included a significant number of questions about the would-be streaming giant’s theatrical release priorities. Ellison has pledged to release a “minimum” of 30 films for theaters between Paramount and WBD upon completion of the merger, and to maintain a 45-day theatrical window for films, followed by a three-month SVOD (digital rent or purchase) period before they land on Paramount+.

The DOJ has not yet approved the merger, and the agency’s current apparent analysis could shift.

It’s unclear what other topics were discussed at Tuesday’s meeting. Hollywood insiders critical of a Warner Bros. acquisition have also highlighted that any merger decreasing the number of content buyers would squeeze an already depressed entertainment labor market.

Per Semafor, that meeting included a significant number of questions about the would-be streaming giant’s theatrical release priorities. Ellison has pledged to release a “minimum” of 30 films for theaters between Paramount and WBD upon completion of the merger, and to maintain a 45-day theatrical window for films, followed by a three-month SVOD (digital rent or purchase) period before they land on Paramount+.

The DOJ has not yet approved the merger, and the agency’s current apparent analysis could shift.

It’s unclear what other topics were discussed at Tuesday’s meeting. Hollywood insiders critical of a Warner Bros. acquisition have also highlighted that any merger decreasing the number of content buyers would squeeze an already depressed entertainment labor market.

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