Trump fired BLS chief after new data changed the labor outlook, but just how common are data revisions?

After months of strong showings, July’s job numbers came in weak last Friday, with the US economy adding just 73,000 jobs last month, below the 104,000 forecast.

But the bigger surprise came after the print, as President Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, asserting that the job data was “rigged” to harm his administration.

Key to the claim was a sharp downward revision to May and June’s payroll growth, which slashed a combined 258,000 jobs from earlier estimates. That dragged the average job gain over the past three months to just 35,000 — the weakest since the early days of the pandemic and a stark reversal from the solid labor market momentum seen last month. 

In fact, the Bureau of Labor Statistics routinely updates its initial payroll estimates as more employer data rolls in (often from late survey responses) while seasonal adjustments and changing population trends also play a role. So, just how unusual are major revisions?

According to BLS data, the May to June revisions mark the largest two-month drop since 1979 (excluding the Covid era), far exceeding the typical monthly average revision of 51,000 since 2003. Still, they’re not without precedent: figures for March 2020 saw a swing of 672,000, while September 2008 was revised down by 244,000.

Some economists have warned that the firing could erode trust in US economic data. Michael Feroll, chief US economist at JPMorgan, cautioned that “the risk of politicizing the data collection process should not be overlooked,” in a note published yesterday. “To borrow from the soft-landing analogy, having a flawed instrument panel can be just as dangerous as having an obediently partisan pilot.”

Ernie Tedeschi, former chief economist at the Council of Economic Advisers, said in a post on X that “BLS’s first-release estimates of nonfarm payroll employment have gotten more, not less, accurate over time.”

White House officials reportedly began this week searching for a new head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.