Trump’s tariffs brought billions of dollars in customs revenue, but now the US may have to give it back
The US has collected ~$40 billion worth of customs duties since April, but with the US Court of International Trade blocking the majority of President Trump’s tariffs, the government may end up returning the money.
After raking in a record $15.6 billion in customs revenue in April, the Treasury hit a new all-time high again this month, likely from Trump’s 10% baseline tariffs on nearly all imports, with some $22 billion accumulated so far in May. That’s a massive jump from $9 billion back in January, and is likely lower than reality, as the customs-only figure excludes excise taxes on specific imported goods like fuel, alcohol, and tobacco.
But the new ruling invalidates all orders rooted in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, including last month’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on almost all US trading partners and levies against China, Mexico, and Canada enacted before then. Trump now has up to 10 days to sort out the necessary administrative actions, unless the administration’s notice of appeal filed against the decision goes through.
The revenue was a boon but still small compared to the fiscal pressure America is under. Mounting federal debt is raising concerns in bond markets, and Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which includes tax cuts, might cost an additional $3.8 trillion over the next decade.
Of course, there’s also a catch: even if the ruling holds, the White House could deploy other trade laws and continue imposing sector-specific tariffs, which “might not change the final outcome for most major U.S. trading partners,” per Goldman Sachs analyst Alec Phillips.
But the new ruling invalidates all orders rooted in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, including last month’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on almost all US trading partners and levies against China, Mexico, and Canada enacted before then. Trump now has up to 10 days to sort out the necessary administrative actions, unless the administration’s notice of appeal filed against the decision goes through.
The revenue was a boon but still small compared to the fiscal pressure America is under. Mounting federal debt is raising concerns in bond markets, and Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which includes tax cuts, might cost an additional $3.8 trillion over the next decade.
Of course, there’s also a catch: even if the ruling holds, the White House could deploy other trade laws and continue imposing sector-specific tariffs, which “might not change the final outcome for most major U.S. trading partners,” per Goldman Sachs analyst Alec Phillips.
