Markets

Stocks end mixed as investors digest weak 30-year bond auction and new tariffs

Stocks were mixed Thursday, under some pressure after a weak 30-year Treasury auction and fresh trade noise as President Trump announced plans for new chip tariffs, which included exemptions for companies building in the US.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.08%, but closed well off session lows. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 reversed off lows of the day to finish 0.32% up. The Russell 2000 fell 0.30%.

Utilities and consumer staples led S&P 500 sector ETFs, while financials and healthcare lagged — dragged down by names like Eli Lilly, which reported disappointing trial results for its next-gen weight-loss pill despite crushing earnings expectations.

Gains on the day were led by AppLovin, which jumped 12% after the ad tech firm initially failed to impress traders with earnings after the bell yesterday. Declines were led in part by Airbnb, which fell 8% after the home-share giant topped Q2 estimates on Wednesday but warned of a slower back half of the year. 

Elsewhere…

Joby Aviation shares fell another 9% after the air taxi company reported a worse-than-expected loss for the second quarter on Wednesday.

Duolingo shares rallied 13% after the language-learning company soundly beat Q2 estimates and raised both its full-year and third-quarter sales guidance.

Sunrun skyrocketed 32% after the energy storage and solar panel provider reported a surprise second-quarter profit and record customer demand for its energy storage systems.

Celsius shares popped 17% after the energy drink maker reported Q2 revenue of $739 million, blowing past analysts’ expectations of $652 million as its market share picks up.

Peloton jumped as much as 22% premarket before closing flat after the connected fitness company topped Q4 estimates and announced a cost restructuring plan to save at least $100 million in run-rate savings.

Apple shares jumped 3% after President Trump said “companies like Apple,” including other firms that build in the US, will avoid 100% chip tariffs.

NRG shares rose 3% after the power producer and energy trader’s adjusted earnings fell short of Wall Street estimates, while GAAP results swung to a surprise loss.

Hertz soared 7.7% after the car rental company reported a better-than-expected adjusted loss for the second quarter and its first positive adjusted corporate EBITDA in seven quarters.

Sony shares traded 4.5% higher after the company raised its full-year operating profit forecast, thanks to a smaller-than-expected tariff hit and strong performance in its gaming division.

DoorDash shares rose 5% after the food delivery giant topped Q2 estimates and posted its fourth consecutive profitable quarter.

Crocs shares sank 29% after the funky foam clog maker beat second-quarter estimates but offered a murky outlook as demand cools in North America, its key market.

Bumble shares fell 15% after the dating company reported a surprise loss in the second quarter after the bell Wednesday and has struggled to spark sales growth in recent years.

D-Wave Quantum dropped 2.3% after the Palo Alto-based quantum computing firm reported mixed second-quarter results, driven by a $142 million rise in the fair value of its warrant liabilities.

Intel fell 3% after President Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, that CEO Lip-Bu Tan “is highly CONFLICTED and must resign, immediately.”

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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