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Luke Kawa

OpenAI appears to be definitively answering its doubters’ biggest question

The AI boom is power constrained. It’s chip constrained.

But it will not be capital constrained.

That’s the top takeaway from media reports from The Wall Street Journal and Reuters that OpenAI is plotting an IPO.

That message is also corroborated by anecdotal reports that the order book for Meta’s $25 billion bond offering is roughly $125 billion (!), per a source familiar with the situation.

My colleague David Crowther recently wrote that OpenAI would likely need to raise $50 billion to $75 billion to fund its spending ambitions, which are poised to drive $115 billion in cash burn through 2029.

The most common question raised by OpenAI skeptics has been, “Where is OpenAI going to get all this money?”

A mulled IPO might suggest that OpenAI’s ability to raise money from private markets is reaching its limits. But it also tells us the answer to that question is “from literally anyone who wants to.”

And in a world where SPACs are back and speculation is rampant, something we should have known all along is that people want to. The technology and the unit economics of AI will have to prove their failures, or reach a much higher level of saturation, before capital will shy away from an opportunity billed as this transformative.

Per Reuters, OpenAI is looking to raise about $60 billion at a $1 trillion valuation from the offering — significantly reducing any funding needs through 2029 in one fell swoop.

That message is also corroborated by anecdotal reports that the order book for Meta’s $25 billion bond offering is roughly $125 billion (!), per a source familiar with the situation.

My colleague David Crowther recently wrote that OpenAI would likely need to raise $50 billion to $75 billion to fund its spending ambitions, which are poised to drive $115 billion in cash burn through 2029.

The most common question raised by OpenAI skeptics has been, “Where is OpenAI going to get all this money?”

A mulled IPO might suggest that OpenAI’s ability to raise money from private markets is reaching its limits. But it also tells us the answer to that question is “from literally anyone who wants to.”

And in a world where SPACs are back and speculation is rampant, something we should have known all along is that people want to. The technology and the unit economics of AI will have to prove their failures, or reach a much higher level of saturation, before capital will shy away from an opportunity billed as this transformative.

Per Reuters, OpenAI is looking to raise about $60 billion at a $1 trillion valuation from the offering — significantly reducing any funding needs through 2029 in one fell swoop.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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