Yiwen Lu11/6/24

Trump victory lifts US stocks to all-time highs

The S&P 500 climbed 2.5%, closing the index at another fresh record for the 48th time this year. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2.7%. Russell 2000, which tracks small caps that are more sensitive to US tax rates and less sensitive to trade barriers, outperformed all others on the day and up 5.8%.

The Dollar Spot Index added 1.7%, its biggest one-day gain since June 2016. Interest rates were higher; the 10-year Treasury yield rose 15 basis points to 4.43%, the most since April this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now overwhelmingly expecting a 25-basis point cut at the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow.

Of the 11 major sectors, only utilities, consumer staples, and real estate were down.

The sectors that could benefit from Trump-related policies added the most today. The financial-sector ETF was up 6.1%, driven by a jump in both Synchrony Financial and Discover. Banks including KeyCorp, Capital One, and Citizens Bank were also among the biggest gainers on Wednesday. The industrial sector went up 3.9%. The energy sector advanced 3.8%.

But crude oil was only modestly higher: the US benchmark was up 0.7% at settlement, while the global benchmark rose only 0.2%.

In addition, a slew of GOP-associated stocks gained ground today. Private prison company GEO Group rose 42.1%, and CoreCivic climbed 29%. Domestic steel companies like Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Steel Dynamics were having their best day in years. Teslaled Magnificent 7, up 14.8% on the day. Bitcoin hit records again and is now trading at $76,725.

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Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

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