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Sofi Surges on Student Loan limits in Senate Bill
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SoFi soars as GOP cuts to federal student loans move toward passage

Cuts to federal student loan programs would likely move more borrowers to private lenders.

Student loan lender SoFi Technologies hit its highest price since November 2021 on Monday as Senate Republicans moved forward on President Trump’s giant budget bill, which would cut federal student lending programs and likely push borrowers to private lenders like SoFi.

Trading in bullish call options surged on the day, helping to catalyze a run-up of more than 10% in early trading. The shares gave back some of those early gains, but remained up more than 6% in the last hour of trading.

As the Washington Post reported in May, the bill would radically change, and in some cases, complicate, the current student lending system in the US.

The bill includes changes like cutting the Pell grants used by students from poor and middle-class families, ending the federal PLUS loan programs for graduate students, and imposing new limits on the total amount that can be borrowed for advanced degrees, such as medicine and law, to $150,000 and $100,000 for master’s degrees. The Post reported:

“Republicans say imposing borrowing limits on graduate programs could force institutions to lower their costs. But the restrictions may simply drive more students to the private lending markets, where there are fewer consumer protections, said Jon Fansmith, senior vice president for government relations at the American Council on Education (ACE).”

That’s how SoFi CEO Anthony Noto seems to see the situation as well.

On the company’s post-earnings conference call in late April, he told analysts, “If the government backs away from providing in-school loans, Grad PLUS, et cetera, et cetera, we’ll absolutely capture that opportunity.”

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US unemployment rate rises for 4 consecutive readings, first time since 2009

A double dose of long-delayed jobs data landed this morning, with the release of nonfarm payrolls for October and November.

The unemployment rate rose by more than expected to 4.6% in November, while 64,000 jobs were added.

Economists expected nonfarm payrolls growth of 50,000 with the unemployment rate edging higher to 4.5%.

The US unemployment rate has now risen for four consecutive readings for the first time since June 2009.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF was little changed in the aftermath of this data.

Event contracts indicated that the masses thought nonfarm payrolls growth for November would come in above 25,000 (74%) but below 100,000 (with above that level having a probability of 21%) heading into this release.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. Event contracts trading is offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a registered futures commission merchant with the CFTC.)

This was a messy set of data, as these reports had been long delayed in light of the government shutdown, and no unemployment rate was produced for October.

The delayed impact of federal government buyouts related to DOGE meaningfully weighed on October’s nonfarm payrolls figure, which contracted by 105,000. More than all of this was tied to a 162,000 decline in federal government jobs. Private payrolls rose by 52,000 in the 10th month of the year.

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Needham hikes price target on Micron by 50% to $300 ahead of earnings on tight memory chip supplies

Needham analyst Quinn Bolton boosted his price target on Micron to $300 from $200 ahead of its Q1 fiscal 2026 results, scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

While there have been numerous media reports that try to pin down who gets what in different prominent AI supply chains, the simple story here is that there’s effectively an oligopoly for dynamic random access memory chips (Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix), and these companies have pricing power because of limited supply and elevated AI-fueled demand.

“We believe industry supply/demand is far tighter than management expected on its F4Q25 (Aug) earnings call,” Bolton wrote. “We expect industry supply will remain constrained throughout 2026 as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are all constrained by clean room space and can only rely on node transitions to increase bit shipments in the near term.”

In other words, these companies are so capacity-constrained that the only way to sell more memory is to sell better chips as they move to more advanced editions.

“We note management recently confirmed the company’s HBM3E and HBM4 capacity is sold out for CY2026 and believe HBM continues to carry above corporate and DRAM average gross margin,” he wrote.

Bolton also boosted his estimates for full-year sales for Micron’s next two fiscal years by 8% and 14%, respectively, and adjusted earnings per share by 18% and 30%, respectively. Even so, all of these figures remain a little below the consensus estimate.

Wall Street analysts have been scrambling to rightsize their views on Micron ahead of earnings. The average price target has gone up by a whopping 67% over the last three months, and the shares spent the vast majority of time from late October through last week trading above the consensus outlook.

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Pfizer falls after 2026 guidance falls short of analysts’ expectations

Pfizer is lower in early trading after reaffirming its 2025 guidance and giving analysts a fresh steer on 2026.

The company said it expects 2026 annual adjusted earnings per share to hit between $2.80 and $3.00, lower than the $3.05 analysts polled by FactSet are currently penciling in.

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