Robinhood enters the US election prediction-markets arena
This morning, The Wall Street Journal reported that retail trading platform Robinhood is launching prediction-market contracts that allow users to bet on the outcome of the US presidential election. (Sherwood Media is an independent subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc.)
While Polymarket and Kalshi, which both support US election markets, have been in the spotlight this election cycle, Robinhood is partnering with Interactive Brokers’ prediction market ForecastEx to launch its contracts.
It was a Kalshi lawsuit that opened the door for Robinhood’s entry to the market. In November 2023, Kalshi, the first CFTC-approved prediction-market platform in the US, sued the regulatory agency for blocking its US election contracts. Eleven months later, the DC Court of Appeals denied the CFTC’s motion to block Kalshi from offering betting contracts on US elections, and the prediction-market startup promptly launched a slew of election markets, from the winner of the 2024 election to state-by-state results.
However, while Kalshi was the first prediction market to get approved in the US, it wasn’t the only one. In June 2024, Connecticut-based brokerage firm Interactive Brokers received approval for its subsidiary ForecastEx to operate a contract market and derivatives clearing organization, as well. After the federal judge ruled in Kalshi’s favor, Interactive Brokers launched its own US election market, which began trading on October 3. With 11.8 million monthly active users, Robinhood is now the largest platform, by number of users, offering prediction contracts, adding more competition to this nascent market a week before the US presidential election.
While Polymarket and Kalshi, which both support US election markets, have been in the spotlight this election cycle, Robinhood is partnering with Interactive Brokers’ prediction market ForecastEx to launch its contracts.
It was a Kalshi lawsuit that opened the door for Robinhood’s entry to the market. In November 2023, Kalshi, the first CFTC-approved prediction-market platform in the US, sued the regulatory agency for blocking its US election contracts. Eleven months later, the DC Court of Appeals denied the CFTC’s motion to block Kalshi from offering betting contracts on US elections, and the prediction-market startup promptly launched a slew of election markets, from the winner of the 2024 election to state-by-state results.
However, while Kalshi was the first prediction market to get approved in the US, it wasn’t the only one. In June 2024, Connecticut-based brokerage firm Interactive Brokers received approval for its subsidiary ForecastEx to operate a contract market and derivatives clearing organization, as well. After the federal judge ruled in Kalshi’s favor, Interactive Brokers launched its own US election market, which began trading on October 3. With 11.8 million monthly active users, Robinhood is now the largest platform, by number of users, offering prediction contracts, adding more competition to this nascent market a week before the US presidential election.
