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Hyunsoo Rim2/3/26

PayPal craters on earnings miss, weak 2026 outlook, and leadership change

PayPal fell over 16% in premarket trading Tuesday after the digital payments company posted weaker-than-expected Q4 results and 2026 profit guidance, alongside a surprise leadership change.

For the quarter ended December 31, revenues increased 4% year on year to $8.7 billion, missing the $8.8 billion estimate, while adjusted earnings per share rose 3% to $1.23, also below the expected $1.28, per LSEG. The company forecast full-year adjusted profit for 2026 to decline in the “low-single digits” or be “slightly positive,” well below Wall Street forecasts for roughly 8% growth.

Results were dragged down by softer US retail spending and a slowdown in its online branded checkout business, which PayPal said grew “below our expectations,” rising just 1% year over year in Q4, down from 6% a year earlier.

Separately, PayPal said its CEO, Alex Chriss, will be replaced by HP CEO Enrique Lores, effective March 1. “While some progress has been made in a number of areas over the last two years, the pace of change and execution was not in line with the Board’s expectations,” the company said in a statement.

In December, PayPal announced it applied to become a US bank with the FDIC and Utah regulators to support small-business lending, adding to its existing European banking license.

Results were dragged down by softer US retail spending and a slowdown in its online branded checkout business, which PayPal said grew “below our expectations,” rising just 1% year over year in Q4, down from 6% a year earlier.

Separately, PayPal said its CEO, Alex Chriss, will be replaced by HP CEO Enrique Lores, effective March 1. “While some progress has been made in a number of areas over the last two years, the pace of change and execution was not in line with the Board’s expectations,” the company said in a statement.

In December, PayPal announced it applied to become a US bank with the FDIC and Utah regulators to support small-business lending, adding to its existing European banking license.

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Matt Phillips2h

Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

Jet fuel refining margins are surging to 20-year highs amid Iran war, threatening airlines

According to a Deutsche Bank note on Friday, airlines haven’t seen this phenomenon since the aftermath of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.

Airlines Face Rapidly Rising Fuel Costs

markets

Matt Phillips5h

The slow-motion private credit crunch continues

You may have missed it, what with the Iran war, the price of oil spiking, or the ongoing questions about the durability — and future profitability — of the AI capex boom.

But there are clear signs of malaise in private credit markets — the massive corporate bond and loan markets that typically burble away quietly in the background while the stock markets garner the headlines.

The Financial Times reported on Friday:

“BlackRock has limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds following a surge in redemption requests, as investors retreat from the asset class and questions about credit quality intensify...

The decision to cap withdrawals at 5 per cent will be closely scrutinised by the industry as outflows climb across semi-liquid private credit funds. The vehicles have drawn in hundreds of billions of dollars from retail investors and wealthy individuals who were enticed by the high returns on offer but have started to bolt at the first signs of stress.”

That news follows an unsettling recent pattern of private credit firms telling investors they cannot have their money back on demand, most notably Blue Owl last month, which also limited redemptions.

Normally the goings-on of the credit markets are of little interest to stock jockeys. But the concerns about credit have started to bleed into the stock market, too.

Of the S&P 500’s 11 industry groups — known as sectors — the financial sector (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) is by far the year’s worst performer, down more than 9% in 2026, with firms with links to private credit such as Ares Management, Blackstone, KKR & Co., and Apollo Global Management some of the worst performers. They’re all down more than 20% since the start of the year.

If investors were looking for another thing to worry about, this would likely be a good one to add to the list.

BlackRock limits redemptions at private credit fund as outflows swell

But there are clear signs of malaise in private credit markets — the massive corporate bond and loan markets that typically burble away quietly in the background while the stock markets garner the headlines.

The Financial Times reported on Friday:

“BlackRock has limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds following a surge in redemption requests, as investors retreat from the asset class and questions about credit quality intensify...

The decision to cap withdrawals at 5 per cent will be closely scrutinised by the industry as outflows climb across semi-liquid private credit funds. The vehicles have drawn in hundreds of billions of dollars from retail investors and wealthy individuals who were enticed by the high returns on offer but have started to bolt at the first signs of stress.”

That news follows an unsettling recent pattern of private credit firms telling investors they cannot have their money back on demand, most notably Blue Owl last month, which also limited redemptions.

Normally the goings-on of the credit markets are of little interest to stock jockeys. But the concerns about credit have started to bleed into the stock market, too.

Of the S&P 500’s 11 industry groups — known as sectors — the financial sector (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) is by far the year’s worst performer, down more than 9% in 2026, with firms with links to private credit such as Ares Management, Blackstone, KKR & Co., and Apollo Global Management some of the worst performers. They’re all down more than 20% since the start of the year.

If investors were looking for another thing to worry about, this would likely be a good one to add to the list.

US employment unexpectedly contracts in February, unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

Event contracts indicate a rate cut in June is a now a very live possibility.

Americans line up for job fair.

LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven

Qatar energy minister warns of potential oil spike to $150 within weeks

“Most of the folks who appreciate just how bullish the US-Israel-Iran war is for oil markets think it’s SO WILDLY BULLISH that they can’t imagine this lasting much longer,” wrote Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context.

Hyunsoo Rim, Luke Kawa7h

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