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Softbank Group CEO Masayoshi Son (Yuichi Yamazaki/Getty Images)
Weird Money

One guy who has no problem with the OpenAI leadership exodus: Masayoshi Son

SoftBank is back, making a $500 million splash with its OpenAI investment.

Jack Raines

Last Thursday, I wondered whether or not a wave of resignations from key OpenAI executives over the last year, including three last week, would cause investors to hesitate as they considered writing new checks to OpenAI at a $150 billion valuation. At least one investor wasn’t concerned: Masayoshi Son, the founder and CEO of Japanese investing group SoftBank.

The Information reported that SoftBank’s Vision Fund has agreed to invest $500 million in OpenAI’s latest funding round, valuing the company at $150 billion, joining Thrive Capital, which has agreed to invest “more than $1 billion,” as well as Microsoft and other backers.

Son has had an… interesting journey investing in technology companies, to say the least.

Son briefly became the richest man in the world in the late 1990s after betting heavily on tech during the dot-com bubble, but when the bubble burst, he gained the distinction of having lost more money than any other person in history as SoftBank’s stock collapsed 99%. However, Son turned an initial $20 million bet (SoftBank eventually invested a total of $53 million) on Jack Ma’s Alibaba in 2000 into a $72 billion gain by the time the company exited its position in 2023, and in 2020, its 25% stake in Alibaba was worth more than SoftBank’s own market capitalization.

In 2022, SoftBank’s Vision Fund posted a $27.4 billion loss, largely due to poorly-timed investments in different tech companies, such as WeWork, at nosebleed valuations, and in November of that year, Son personally owed his company $4.7 billion. BUT, as with Alibaba, one outsized position saved his portfolio. Softbank acquired British semiconductor company Arm Holdings for $31.4 billion in 2016 and took it public at $51 per share for a $54 billion valuation in 2023, after European regulators blocked an Nvidia acquisition.

Arm is now trading at $138 per share, or a $145 billion market capitalization, thanks to AI tailwinds, and SoftBank still hasn’t sold its 90% stake, which is now worth approximately $130 billion.

Basically the story of SoftBank, over the last 25+ years, has been boom, bust, boom, bust, boom, with Son going all-in on hot markets at sky-high valuations, suffering multi-billion dollar losses when the market turns, and proceeding to make it all back on one well-timed investment. I’m not saying that OpenAI is his 2024 “lose it all” moment, especially considering that he is “only” investing $500 million, and, yes, OpenAI is predicting that its revenue will jump from an estimated $3.7 billion in 2024 to $11.6 billion in 2025 (though let’s not talk about its profitability). But I do think it’s fitting that, while key OpenAI employees are resigning in droves, Apple just pulled out of the funding round, and OpenAI is being valued at the same level as Goldman Sachs, Son is the one new investor ready to lay his money on the line.

Never change, Masayoshi Son.

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Boeing touts supply chain improvements, progress in its “war on defects”

Boeing shares are climbing on Thursday, following comments made by one of the plane maker’s executives at a supplier conference on Wednesday evening.

The company says it’s now spending 40% fewer hours fixing issues arising from its supply chain compared to 2024 — a year marred by production and quality issues.

Defects from parts of the chain controlled by Spirit AeroSystems — a fuselage supplier Boeing acquired last year — have dropped by 60% from 2024.

The progress update comes amid the company’s self-declared “war on defects.” Following its 2024 door plug blowout incident, Boeing has worked to improve documentation, simplify instructions, and expand employee training. According to the National Transportation Safety Board, the share of Boeing employees with 10 or more years of experience halved from 50% to 25% over the past decade.

Defects from parts of the chain controlled by Spirit AeroSystems — a fuselage supplier Boeing acquired last year — have dropped by 60% from 2024.

The progress update comes amid the company’s self-declared “war on defects.” Following its 2024 door plug blowout incident, Boeing has worked to improve documentation, simplify instructions, and expand employee training. According to the National Transportation Safety Board, the share of Boeing employees with 10 or more years of experience halved from 50% to 25% over the past decade.

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Crocs surges as Q4 results and 2026 earnings guidance exceed every analyst’s projections

Shares of Crocs are up double digits in premarket trading after the footwear maker posted Q4 sales and adjusted earnings per share that exceeded every analyst’s estimates.

The company reported revenues of $957.6 million and adjusted EPS of $2.29 in Q4, trouncing expectations for $916.9 million and $1.92, respectively.

Guidance was similarly stellar:

Management called for adjusted EPS to come in between $12.88 and $13.35; the highest estimate from the 13 analysts polled by Bloomberg was just $12.62, and the average was $12.02.

Full-year sales are projected to be down about 1% to up slightly, while Wall Street had also penciled in a bigger decline.

Crocs will struggle to be in s̶p̶o̶r̶t̶ growth mode this year on the top line because it’s carrying around the anchor that is the HeyDude brand.

Even a fresh marketing effort with Sydney Sweeney unveiled in late September didn’t boost HeyDude, in stark contrast to what American Eagle’s partnership with the actress has done to demand for its denim.

The brand’s quarterly sales were down 17% year on year. All of the drop came from wholesale demand, which tumbled 40.5%, while direct-to-consumer sales were flat.

Management expects HeyDude revenues to be down another 7% to 9% this year.

Crocs HeyDude sales
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Cisco slumps as memory price spike weighs on margins

Cisco is falling Thursday, despite delivering a beat-and-raise Q2 result after the previous close. Analysts think surging costs of memory chips are the culprit. Here’s some of what they’re saying.

William Blair: “On the margin front, Cisco guided a contraction in non-GAAP gross margins to 66% in the third quarter (down 150 basis points sequentially), citing elevated memory price inflation and higher mix of hardware.”

Barclays: “While the revenue outlook has improved, and AI orders accelerated, we are not seeing enough translation to EPS growth, particularly given the [gross margin] concerns that recently popped up.”

Citi: “CSCO indicated that memory price increases hit the company with [zero] lead time. That said, the company is working to add more flexibility around their terms & conditions framework in order to pass along memory pricing increases faster.”

Evercore ISI: “Though the guide does imply gross margins will be down ~150bps [quarter over quarter] due to a combination of Mix and Memory inflation, CSCO expects to recover some of these headwinds via price increases and other levers.”

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Nebius slumps after Q4 results trail estimates

Nebius tumbled in early trading after reporting underwhelming Q4 results before managing to pare much of those losses.

In the final three months of the year, revenues of $227.7 million were shy of the $247.5 million consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA of $15 million also trailed expectations for $22.55 million.

Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh indicated that the neocloud ended 2025 with roughly 170 megawatts of active power capacity, ahead of its 100-megawatt target, and “is on track to end the year with annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion.” Management raised its capacity guidance for contracted power by year-end to more than 3 gigawatts, up from a prior outlook of more than 2.5 gigawatts issued in November.

During the conference call, CFO Dada Alonso said the company expects to generate between $3 billion and $3.4 billion in sales this year, which she called a “prudent approach.” Analysts polled by Bloomberg were looking for revenues of nearly $4 billion in 2026.

Neoclouds need capital to keep fueling growth, and the potential for over-indebtedness as these aggressive build-outs continue remains a key risk for the cohort.

COO Ophir Nave said the company would be able to finance “60% or maybe even more of all of our capex needs in 2026” through cash flows. The overwhelming majority of the capex budget is dedicated to deploying GPUs within data centers, rather than power or other physical infrastructure.

markets

Memory stocks jump after Japanese chipmaker posts robust guidance

Memory stocks have their mojo back after Japanese chipmaker Kioxia gave strong forecasts along with positive color on AI-driven demand.

The company, which specializes in NAND flash memory, provided guidance for full-year operating income and sales that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

While Kioxia normally signs agreements for customers on a 12-month basis, management indicated that some now want to lock in supply for 2027 and 2028, a testament to the seeming longevity of the supply/demand imbalance in memory. That imbalance is also prompting the company to enjoy “a very sharp increase in selling price,” per CFO Hideki Hanazawa.

Sandisk, a NAND seller that recently extended its joint venture with Kioxia for manufacturing, is the biggest premarket gainer in the memory chip space. Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings are also trading to the upside.

Memory stocks had previously seen some of the steam come out of their terrific start to 2026, after popular momentum trades came under pressure and investors tried catching a falling knife in beaten-down parts of the market, eroding some enthusiasm for the cohort. But they’ve rebounded smartly in the past couple of sessions, thanks to fresh bad news for software companies; Micron indicating that shipments of next-gen, high-bandwidth chips have started ahead of schedule; and now this positive read-through from Kioxia.

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