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USA Gymnastics Rings Nasdaq Closing Bell
USA Gymnastics rings the Nasdaq closing bell (John Nacion/Getty Images)
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Nasdaq is (finally) cracking down on reverse stock splits

Penny stocks' favorite feat of financial engineering is about to get a little bit harder.

Jack Raines
8/13/24 11:27AM

Over the last couple of years, you may have seen a stock chart that looks something like this, where the current price is down 90% or more from a peak of more than $1,000 per share.

But this chart is deceiving: Nikola Motors was never worth $1,977 per share. In an effort to stay listed on the Nasdaq, Nikola issued a 1-30 reverse stock split after its stock price collapsed below $1, a practice that has become increasingly popular over the last few years.

For context, stock exchanges like the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) have continued listing standards for companies whose shares trade on their exchanges, and of the main requirements is a share price above $1. When a company’s share price closes below $1 for 30 consecutive trading days, the Nasdaq issues the company a noncompliance warning and gives it 180 days to remedy the situation. However, a delinquent company can request another 180 day grace period when the first period ends, effectively giving it a year to increase its share price. Given that companies can stay listed below $1 for a while, many have, and as of last Thursday, there were 509 stocks listed on US exchanges trading below $1 per share, with 421 of those listed on the Nasdaq. For reference, there were fewer than 12 sub-$1 stocks in the US in early 2021.

Unsurprisingly, companies whose share prices have declined below $1 tend to continue declining, so, to maintain their listings, they have turned to one of the more interesting feats of financial engineering: reverse splits.

Normal stock splits are typically viewed as a positive sign. Companies that have witnessed their share prices climb to the hundreds (or thousands) of dollars often announce stock splits (see Nvidia in 2021 and again in 2024) to maintain a more accessible price.

Reverse splits, however, tend to signal a struggling stock. While General Electric’s stock has done well since its 2021 1-for-8 reverse split, it wasn’t facing delisting warnings, and this move may have been a precursor to the conglomerate’s decision to later split into three separate companies.

A reverse split to avoid delisting usually means the company couldn’t do anything else to keep its stock price above $1. Reverse split volume has continued to increase as more companies’ stock prices slid below $1, with companies carrying out 495 reverse splits in 2023, compared to 102 in 2021.

Last month, electronic trading firm Virtu Financial filed a petition with the SEC asking the Nasdaq to adopt stricter listing requirements:

The bottom line is that current SEC rules that allow high-risk penny stocks to be listed on major stock exchanges present serious investor protection concerns. We believe that it is long past due for the Commission to take a fresh look at its rules around the listing of such securities and ensure that investors are armed with the information they need to assess the investment risks. 

One of Virtu’s primary concerns is that the proliferation of reverse splits threatens to confuse retail investors, with the price increases disguising investment risks. It looks like Nasdaq took notice, and last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Nasdaq had submitted rule changes to accelerate delistings:

Under one of the proposed changes, companies that reach the end of their second 180-day grace period wouldn’t be able to postpone delisting by seeking an appeal. Instead, their shares would move to the over-the-counter market—a sort of purgatory where companies land after being delisted—while they await the appeal. Effectively, the rule change caps the amount of time that sub-$1 stocks can be listed on Nasdaq to roughly a year.

The second proposed rule change would speed up the delisting process for companies that recently did a reverse stock split. Under the change, if a company carried out a reverse split to prop up its share price, but then its stock fell below $1 within a year, Nasdaq would immediately send the company a delisting notice.

This is, to me, a long-overdue change. The idea that a company facing delisting could simply change its stock price without an improvement in the underlying business felt a bit… scummy. 

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“We raise our calendar year hard disk drive exabyte shipment forecast to 1,602 exabytes (+28% y/y) from 1,575 exabytes (+26% y/y) and see room for further upside as demand continues to outpace supply. Despite double digit percentage increases in total capacity... from STX & WDC so far during C25, HDD industry supply remains tight.”

BofA boosted its price target for Seagate from $170 a share to $215, slightly above where the stock is trading on Monday. The analysts also increased their stock price target on Western Digital from $100 to $123, implying a roughly 20% premium to where its share were trading Monday afternoon shortly before 2 p.m. ET.

Besides being an influential market driver this year, demand for hard disk data storage also reflects the vast amounts of data that the boom in AI is expected to generate. (A single exabyte is the equivalent of 1 billion gigabytes.)

As a result, hard drive makers like Seagate and Western are focusing on the next generation of high-capacity data storage gizmos that pack more data bits. These devices are also more profitable than traditional disk drives, which has helped to boost the profitability of the industry, BofA analysts said.

“As HDD demand continues to outpace supply, STX & WDC have seen profitability metrics hit all-time highs,” they wrote.

Those profitability metrics could help explain why the stocks have suddenly caught the fancy of traders.

“We estimate that STX & WDC can get above 42-43% corp gross margin levels exiting [calendar year 2028],” they wrote. “But if pricing is stronger than expected or if manufacturing efficiencies lower COGS, we believe margins could go even higher. Key risks include pause in hyperscaler capex (low probability) and tariffs.”

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Alaska Air declines as it warns its profit will be dinged by fuel costs, weather, and air traffic control problems

Seattle-based Alaska Air is trading lower Monday afternoon after the airline warned investors that its third-quarter profits will likely come in on the low end of its prior outlook.

When Alaska Air reported its second-quarter results in July, the airline said it expected third-quarter earnings to land between $1 and $1.40 per share. As of early Monday, analysts polled by FactSet estimated $1.35.

A host of issues are behind the companys expectations of a dent to earnings. ALK said its projecting fuel costs to climb to between $2.50 and $2.55 per gallon, up from its previous estimate of $2.45, due to West Coast refinery disruptions. Weather and air traffic control issues “led to increased costs from overtime, premium pay and passenger compensation,” Alaska said.

With Monday afternoon’s move, ALK shares are down about 8% year to date.

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Intel cuts expense forecast, sees best gain in weeks

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Shortly after 12 p.m. ET the stock was up 4%, Intel’s best gain since August 22, when the Trump administration announced the extraordinary step of having the federal government take a 10% ownership stake in the private chip company.

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