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Luke Kawa2/23/26

IBM sinks as Anthropic positions Claude Code as the ideal tool for code modernization

IBM is sinking as Anthropic touts Claude Code’s ability to modernize COBOL code bases.

COBOL, or Common Business-Oriented Language, is a programming language for business functions. Code written in this language has been developed and altered over decades, getting increasingly clunky and cluttered on mainframes, and the number of experts who know this language well is dwindling.

Anthropic said in a blog post that Claude Code can automate COBOL modernization, and, with the help of human judgment, migrate this code incrementally into modern languages, where it can be hosted across various cloud providers.

That is a potential threat to the likes of IBM, an architect of the COBOL system that uses the language on its mainframes for enterprises. IBM is also offering AI tools (like watsonx) to modernize COBOL code, but crucially, wants to keep the outputs running on its hardware and software.

“The strength of our Z placement fuels our flywheel for growth with its attractive 3x to 4x stack multiplier across IBM,” CFO James Kavanaugh said after the company’s latest earnings report. “Z” refers to IBM’s mainframe offerings. As such, getting and keeping customers on IBM’s mainframe is a key way the company drives revenue growth for other software and services.

COBOL is standard in many financial operations (like ATMs), as well as in government and airline systems, as Anthropic notes, so users may want to keep this code tied to one mainframe architecture for security, reliability, and speed (it’s the devil they know!) rather than migrating to a different platform.

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Jet fuel refining margins are surging to 20-year highs amid Iran war, threatening airlines

According to a Deutsche Bank note on Friday, airlines haven’t seen this phenomenon since the aftermath of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.

Airlines Face Rapidly Rising Fuel Costs

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Matt Phillips3h

The slow-motion private credit crunch continues

You may have missed it, what with the Iran war, the price of oil spiking, or the ongoing questions about the durability — and future profitability — of the AI capex boom.

But there are clear signs of malaise in private credit markets — the massive corporate bond and loan markets that typically burble away quietly in the background while the stock markets garner the headlines.

The Financial Times reported on Friday:

“BlackRock has limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds following a surge in redemption requests, as investors retreat from the asset class and questions about credit quality intensify...

The decision to cap withdrawals at 5 per cent will be closely scrutinised by the industry as outflows climb across semi-liquid private credit funds. The vehicles have drawn in hundreds of billions of dollars from retail investors and wealthy individuals who were enticed by the high returns on offer but have started to bolt at the first signs of stress.”

That news follows an unsettling recent pattern of private credit firms telling investors they cannot have their money back on demand, most notably Blue Owl last month, which also limited redemptions.

Normally the goings-on of the credit markets are of little interest to stock jockeys. But the concerns about credit have started to bleed into the stock market, too.

Of the S&P 500’s 11 industry groups — known as sectors — the financial sector (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) is by far the year’s worst performer, down more than 9% in 2026, with firms with links to private credit such as Ares Management, Blackstone, KKR & Co., and Apollo Global Management some of the worst performers. They’re all down more than 20% since the start of the year.

If investors were looking for another thing to worry about, this would likely be a good one to add to the list.

BlackRock limits redemptions at private credit fund as outflows swell

But there are clear signs of malaise in private credit markets — the massive corporate bond and loan markets that typically burble away quietly in the background while the stock markets garner the headlines.

The Financial Times reported on Friday:

“BlackRock has limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds following a surge in redemption requests, as investors retreat from the asset class and questions about credit quality intensify...

The decision to cap withdrawals at 5 per cent will be closely scrutinised by the industry as outflows climb across semi-liquid private credit funds. The vehicles have drawn in hundreds of billions of dollars from retail investors and wealthy individuals who were enticed by the high returns on offer but have started to bolt at the first signs of stress.”

That news follows an unsettling recent pattern of private credit firms telling investors they cannot have their money back on demand, most notably Blue Owl last month, which also limited redemptions.

Normally the goings-on of the credit markets are of little interest to stock jockeys. But the concerns about credit have started to bleed into the stock market, too.

Of the S&P 500’s 11 industry groups — known as sectors — the financial sector (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) is by far the year’s worst performer, down more than 9% in 2026, with firms with links to private credit such as Ares Management, Blackstone, KKR & Co., and Apollo Global Management some of the worst performers. They’re all down more than 20% since the start of the year.

If investors were looking for another thing to worry about, this would likely be a good one to add to the list.

US employment unexpectedly contracts in February, unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

Event contracts indicate a rate cut in June is a now a very live possibility.

Americans line up for job fair.

LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven

Qatar energy minister warns of potential oil spike to $150 within weeks

“Most of the folks who appreciate just how bullish the US-Israel-Iran war is for oil markets think it’s SO WILDLY BULLISH that they can’t imagine this lasting much longer,” wrote Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context.

Hyunsoo Rim, Luke Kawa4h

US gas prices jump to highest level of Trump’s time in office

Prices are up about $0.34 per gallon since the conflict started.

BP Fuel Pump

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