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The French Polymarket whale won so much money that France is investigating the platform

France may look to ban Polymarket after one of its residents made tens of millions betting on the US election.

11/7/24 3:36PM

My favorite story from this election cycle was that of the French Polymarket whale, “Théo.” On October 18, The Wall Street Journal reported that a group of four accounts on Polymarket, the popular crypto-based prediction market that operates outside the US, had collectively wagered $30 million on various bets supporting Donald Trump winning the presidential race. Most of the money was wagered on straightforward bets for Trump to win the election, but some money was placed on swing states and popular-vote results as well.

Two weeks later, the Journal interviewed the man behind these accounts: a Frenchman named Théo who had previously worked as a trader in the US. While there had been speculation that the “Polymarket whale” was attempting to manipulate the market to create the perception that Trump was outperforming poll data by bidding up his odds, Théo told the Journal that his intent was “just making money,” and he has “absolutely no political agenda.” He also, apparently, YOLO’d most of his liquid assets on the election bet:

“If Harris wins, Théo could lose most or all of his $30 million, which he described as the majority of his available liquid assets.
He is such a big trader on Polymarket that he is effectively stuck, unable to exit his wagers without crashing the market. The four ‘Trump whale’ accounts collectively hold about 25% of the contracts on Trump winning the Electoral College and over 40% of the contracts on Trump winning the popular vote, according to data provider Polymarket Analytics.”

Anyway, Théo’s gamble paid off, and Bloomberg noted that the French trader is expecting to reap a total profit of approximately $79 million, making him the biggest winner on Polymarket’s leaderboard. Not bad! However, one group that took issue with the Frenchman’s Polymarket trade was France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), the country’s gambling authority.

From Bloomberg:

“Online gambling is tightly regulated in France, although betting on sports and in poker games is permitted. Operating any new gambling market is subject to prior authorization from the ANJ, according to a government website.
‘We are aware of this site and are currently examining its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation,’ an Autorité Nationale des Jeux spokesperson for the regulator told Bloomberg News on Thursday. The ANJ is expected to ban access to Polymarket for French users, crypto news outlet The Big Whale reported late Wednesday.”

And here’s the quote from The Big Whale:

“‘Even if Polymarket uses cryptocurrencies in its operations, it remains a betting activity and this is not legal in France,’ [says] a source close to the ANJ.
‘Polymarket consists of betting money on something random, that’s strictly the definition of gambling, it’s like a sports bet,’ confirms William O'Rorke, partner at ORWL Avocats. ‘And unlike financial companies, the ANJ has the power to block the platform even though Polymarket does not specifically target French users,’ he continues.”

For context, Polymarket, which is headquartered in New York, does not currently operate in the US. In January 2022, the CFTC ruled that Polymarket had violated Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations by offering “swaps” on an unregistered exchange. Polymarket paid a $1.4 million penalty and shut down its US operations, moving overseas.

Meanwhile, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers both received approval from the CFTC to offer prediction markets in 2022 and 2024, respectively. Additionally, while the CFTC initially blocked betting markets on elections, a judge ruled in Kalshi’s favor, and Kalshi and Interactive Brokers subsequently listed their own election markets in the weeks leading up to the election.

While Polymarket had largely avoided international scrutiny until now, its recent popularity (the exchange processed $3.2 billion in election bets, including the tens of millions wagered and won by Théo) has put it on French regulators’ radar. If the ANJ does take action against Polymarket like the CFTC did two years ago, the prediction market may be forced to comply with regulatory frameworks that it has avoided since leaving the US market.

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Luke Kawa4/3/26

US job growth crushes estimates in March, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipping to 4.3%

US hiring surged in March, with job growth of 178,000 well ahead of estimates while the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 4.3%.

Economists had anticipated non-farm payrolls growth of 65,000 for the month with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%

Event contracts had presumed that job growth would come in between 70,000 and 80,000, a sunnier view than Wall Street.

Prediction markets had anticipated roughly 70% odds that the unemployment rate would hold steady at 4.4%, with a much higher implied likelihood of an increase versus a decrease.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

S&P 500 equity futures, which were modestly negative ahead of the report in thin holiday trading, were little changed in the immediate aftermath of this release. Treasury yields jumped, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.35% from 4.31%.

The inflationary impact of the higher crude prices in the wake of US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the subsequent challenges shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz has been the dominant macroeconomic development of the past month, rather than US labor market data.

Before the conflict began, roughly 60 basis points of easing by the Federal Reserve was priced in for 2026. Heading into this release, that’s slimmed to just 5 basis points as US gas prices jumped above $4 per gallon.

The Federal Reserve’s “dot plot” from the March meeting still suggests that officials think it will be appropriate to lower the policy rate this year if the economy unfolds in line with their expectations.

The February jobs report had been a big disappointment, with jobs unexpectedly contracting and the unemployment rate edging higher. With this release, the February figures were revised to show an even larger decline of 133,000.

Strikes which had weighed on employment in health care during February, a critical source of US employment growth in recent years, seemingly reversed. The industry accounted for more than half of net job growth for March.

Tasha Matsumoto

4/2/26

Stocks eke out gains on hopes for a path forward for reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Stocks rebounded on news that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to “monitor transit” through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Matt Phillips4/2/26

AI server cluster maker Penguin Solutions takes flight

Small-cap AI server cluster maker Penguin Solutions surged Thursday after posting better-than-expected Q2 revenue and profit numbers Wednesday after the close, along with an increase in full-year sales and profit guidance.

The company, which was known as Smart Global Holdings until July 2024, has positioned itself as a provider of “end-to-end AI infrastructure solutions.”

Its Advanced Computing division designs and sells computers, cabling, and cooling systems, the server racks and clusters of racks AI data centers need. Its other main division sells flash and DRAM memory products.

It’s a pretty small company, with a fully diluted market cap of just over $1 billion and roughly 2,900 employees, according to FactSet.

The stock is volatile. Penguin dove during last year’s tariff tantrum that followed “Liberation Day” in April. Then it turned tail and doubled through early October amid a surge of call options activity, which tends to reflect retail interest. From the October peak, it then plunged by about 50%, before Thursday’s renaissance.

For what it’s worth, call options activity in Penguin is pretty busy today, too — relatively speaking — with roughly 2,625 traded as of 1:15 p.m. ET. That’s the most since early January, when the company last reported quarterly numbers. The average volume over the previous 25 trading sessions is about 325 calls a day, FactSet data shows.

Penguin Solutions Stock Takes Off On AI Bolstered Outlook

The company, which was known as Smart Global Holdings until July 2024, has positioned itself as a provider of “end-to-end AI infrastructure solutions.”

It’s a pretty small company, with a fully diluted market cap of just over $1 billion and roughly 2,900 employees, according to FactSet.

Luke Kawa4/2/26

Momentum returns to optics stocks as the release valve for AI optimism

Potentially imminent end to the war? Buy optics stocks.

Maybe not? Buy optics stocks anyway.

Effectively all the juice left in the AI trade is coming from optics (and memory) stocks. And the latter group is taking a bit of a breather today while the former continues to surge.

Shares of Ciena Corp., Lumentum, and Coherent are building on recent big gains and among the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 near midday, while Applied Optoelectronics is also surging on Thursday.

These companies all provide solutions that help information move around in data centers, and thus are key beneficiaries of the aggressive capex plans of hyperscalers. Nvidia has invested $2 billion apiece in Coherent and Lumentum in deals that also include purchase commitments.

Matt Phillips4/2/26

Space stocks rip during a topsy-turvy day for the equity market

Satellite-services-from-space stocks surged Thursday after reports that Amazon is in talks to buy Globalstar, which provides voice and connectivity services from its satellite network. It also can’t hurt that the general mood around space is ebullient, following the successful launch of Artemis II on Thursday.

Planet Labs and ViaSat also soared on the news.

The gains for EchoStar — seen as a backdoor play at pre-IPO SpaceX exposure — and Rocket Lab were more muted, perhaps because a deep-pocketed competitor like Jeff Bezos getting serious about space services could complicate the plans of the two largest commercial space launch companies.

Rocket Lab and SpaceX see launch services as key to their aspirations of being major providers of voice and data services from low-Earth orbit satellites.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX is the dominant provider of such services, and the early rumors on the company’s planned IPO — expected to be the largest ever — suggest the market is very excited about the prospects for the industry.

Elsewhere in the space stock world, Intuitive Machines — a maker of space infrastructure that provides services to NASA for lunar missions — also rose.

Globalstar surges after FT reports that Amazon is in talks to buy the satellite group

Rocket Lab and SpaceX see launch services as key to their aspirations of being major providers of voice and data services from low-Earth orbit satellites.

Elsewhere in the space stock world, Intuitive Machines — a maker of space infrastructure that provides services to NASA for lunar missions — also rose.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.