It’s finally Oscars week — and with voting officially closed, all that’s left to do is count the ballots and wait to see who wins this Sunday night. 

This year, the acting categories have been the most interesting to watch, especially the showdown between “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet and “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor. While Chalamet was long the favorite, Jordan has caught up and overtaken him after winning the Actor Award.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But perhaps the most exciting race of all is for Best Picture. Out of the 10 nominees, the two at the top are Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” both of which are studio releases from Warner Bros. Discovery. 

Which will win the top prize seems to be split among award pundits and experts. As of Monday afternoon, Gold Derby still has “One Battle After Another” as the front-runner with odds of 76.87%. AwardsWatch, AwardsRadar, and Numlock Awards are also still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will take the statue for Best Picture.

On the other side, reporters from some major trade publications like Variety’s Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg predict that “Sinners” will take the top honor.

Odds in the prediction markets currently show that “One Battle After Another” is still ahead of “Sinners,” with the former priced in at 75% while the latter is priced at 23%.

The Screen Actors Guild hosted its Actor Awards on Sunday, with the film awards closely monitored ahead of the Academy Awards. The Best Supporting Actor and Actress races remain suspenseful as Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”) and Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) took home the Actor Awards in those respective categories, shifting the odds in both markets predicting who’ll take home the Oscar.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But the most exciting race is for Best Actor. Several award pundits and experts predicted that “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet was a lock for the Actor Award despite his loss at the BAFTA Film Awards the previous weekend. But a few suggested that either “Blue Moon” lead Ethan Hawke or Michael B. Jordan could receive the honor instead. And that’s exactly what happened when the “Sinners” star was announced as the winner.

While some have pointed out that the Actor Awards aren’t a reliable signifier for who will win the Oscar (Demi Moore and Chalamet received the SAG honors last year, but didn’t win the Oscar), it certainly puts Jordan at a higher advantage and makes the Best Actor race closer than it’s ever been. Chalamet previously had a higher lead in the prediction markets, but markets are now pricing in a 49% chance he takes the Oscar while Jordan’s odds have risen to 40%.

The final voting period has kicked off for the 98th Academy Awards. Up until last weekend, many of the main categories seemed like a lock. While “Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley has been the predicted front-runner for the Best Actress statuette for some time now, the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor and Actress races have been upended following the BAFTA Film Awards.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Timothée Chamalet still remains in the lead for the Best Actor prize, his odds have gone down slightly after he lost the BAFTA award, while the wins of Wunmi Mosaku and Sean Penn in the supporting categories have made it a more exciting race. Here’s a roundup of what some experts and awards pundits have said this week:

• While Gold Derby still has Chalamet as the front-runner for the Actor Award (and the Oscar), his odds have gone down slightly following the BAFTA loss. Surprisingly, the publication has “Weapons” star Amy Madigan in the lead to win the Actor Award for supporting actress, while they have Penn as the front-runner getting the Actor Award for supporting actor.

• Numlock Awards reports that the BAFTA Awards reshaped the Oscars race, with Chalamet’s loss throwing the Best Actor race “into chaos” following “I Swear” star Robert Aramayo’s win. (He was not eligible to be nominated for an Oscar.)

• Meanwhile, Variety’s Clayton Davis reports that the Oscars race has officially become “fractured, unpredictable and thrilling” following the BAFTA Awards. However, he predicts that “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan will win the Actor Award this weekend and has heard rumblings that “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke could pull a last-minute victory. 

• IndieWire’s Anne Thompson says that Chalamet is “good to go” for the Actor Awards and the Oscars, adding that the Best Supporting Actress and Actor categories are the ones to keep an eye on.

• Deadline’s Pete Hammond believes that Chalamet’s BAFTA loss doesn’t necessarily impact the Actor Awards — Aramayo isn’t nominated for an Oscar and the BAFTA Awards tend to favor homegrown actors. He agreed with many of the other pundits in that Mosaku and Penn’s wins add more suspense.

• AwardsRadar’s Joey Magidson points out that no one has ever won two Actor Awards in a row, which could open Chalamet up to an upset win from Hawke. 

• Meanwhile, AwardsWatch’s Erik Anderson has Chalamet as a lock for the Actor Award, though he lists Jordan as the follow-up should there be a surprise win in that category.

The Actor Awards are on Sunday, and whoever wins that evening could lock in the fate of the actors in the lead and supporting Oscar categories.

Much like the US men’s hockey team as they walked into the House Chamber during President Trump’s address, there would have been plenty of “mention” traders celebrating at least a few of the president’s ~10,600 words on Tuesday evening, including “hottest,” “egg,” and “alien.”

Lasting almost 108 minutes, Trump’s speech yesterday officially became the longest State of the Union address of the television age, per Bloomberg, surpassing the previous record of 89 minutes set by President Bill Clinton in 2000.

According to data compiled by The American Presidency Project, the president’s address was almost double the average length of all recorded SOTU speeches since 1964, which works out as 55 minutes.

The speech also marked what could be a new personal best in terms of length for Trump, beating his remarks to Congress in March 2025 by 8 minutes, though this was not included in the average as, according to the APP, it was not an official “State of the Union” speech.

The APP also calculated a preliminary figure for 2026 in terms of word count, and the current president trumped all other spoken-word SOTU addresses. Some addresses, however, haven’t been verbally delivered, and a couple of the written versions have racked up considerably greater tallies — most notably Jimmy Carter’s 1981 written address, which came in at 33,667 words in total.

The ongoing bidding war between Paramount and Netflix for the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery had some significant news this week that could change the outcome:  

• Things kicked off Tuesday, when WBD said in a statement it would resume talks with Paramount Skydance to consider its best and final offer after Netflix allowed a seven-day waiver. The WBD board continues to “unanimously recommend” the merger with Netflix, while the streaming service will retain its rights to match or exceed any forthcoming offer from Paramount. The negotiation period ends on February 23.

• IndieWire reporter Brian Welk talked to a few experts about whether the new developments bring clarity to the ongoing bidding war. One professor said without Paramount offering its “best and final offer,” the company loses credibility, while another professor said it makes Netflix look even more confident. 

• Lightshed Partners analyst Richard Greenfield said on his podcast that Paramount will have to raise its offer to as high as $36 to $37 per share. (The company has stuck to $30.) In comparison, Netflix’s initial offer is for $27.75 a share to buy the studio and streaming service, while Paramount is bidding to buy the whole company. 

• Semafor reported Thursday morning that some Democratic senators are “unhappy” with the fact that Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison refused to attend a hearing two weeks ago, and could launch an investigation into the deal if they retake the Senate.

• Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Netflix has “ample cash” and could increase its offer for WBD if Paramount beefs up its own offer, according to sources. 

• Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos recently appeared on a recent episode of “The Town with Matthew Belloni” to reiterate that he doesn’t plan on ruining WBD’s theatrical business model and promised to keep the 45-day theatrical window for WBD films, which could appease opposition from theater owners.

• Variety reported that there’s been a shift among WBD employees who now support Netflix’s acquisition, though there’s still some skepticism among others.

WBD shareholders are still set to vote on the proposed Netflix merger next month, on March 20. Despite the renewed talks with Parmount, as of Friday at 12:45 p.m. ET, prediction markets speculating on who will ultimately come out on top have recently flipped to give the edge back to Netflix, pricing in a 46% chance over Paramount’s 44% odds. 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)