Air travel: How many people are flying in the US relative to "normal"?

6/1/21 8:00PM

Air travel is back. Kinda.

‍The latest data from the TSA reveals that over the Memorial Day weekend (Friday to Monday, inclusive) more than 7.1 million travelers passed through an American airport checkpoint. Those numbers are the highest that the TSA has reported since early March 2020, before the pandemic ground the industry to a halt.

‍Airlines rejoice

‍Airline stocks rose modestly on the news, suggesting the numbers were slightly higher than investors might have expected — although the traffic remains around 20-25% lower than a typical day in a normal year (2019 in the chart).

It's going to be interesting to see just how high these numbers rise over the summer, as restrictions continue to ease and everyone jets off for their 2020 vacations (a year late). Whether they eventually rise to 2.5m+ travelers per day seems likely to depend on whether business travel makes a come back. TSA officials have said, so far, that business travel is the one thing that hasn't returned. Does it need to? Or can those meetings and conferences stay virtual forever?

Tom Jones5h

The UAE’s OPEC exit will hit the group in the barrels

After just shy of 60 years in OPEC, its membership even predating its status as a nation-state, the United Arab Emirates yesterday announced its shocking departure from the oil production group, effective May 1, as the knock-on effects of the Iran war continue to play out across the Middle East and the energy landscape.

For context, the UAE produces the third-highest amount of oil in the group, per April data and OPEC’s latest set of annual statistics.

According to the cartel’s 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin, the OPEC group was collectively exporting some 19 million barrels of crude oil a day last year, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for some 14% of that daily output.

UAExit means UAExit

The nation, whose energy minister told Reuters yesterday that the decision was taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” and wasn’t made following discussions with any other country, made up a healthy share of the group’s total confirmed crude oil reserves, as well.

Of the 12 nations in the core group, which was founded by just five oil superpowers back in September 1960, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily, pumping out 3.36 million and 6.05 million barrels, respectively, each day to nations around the world.

For its part, the UAE said it will “continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the official state news agency. Clearly, the nation now wants a little more control of just how much oil it can pump around the world, with the UAE having to eat a large proportion of lost revenues due to its healthy abundance and OPEC restrictions.