This year was peak coal, as global consumption is set to decline through 2030, per new report
Falling demand in China, the US, and EU could offset growth in India.
Humans have been burning coal to warm our homes, fire our hearths, and move machinery for more than a millennium — a relentless coal-burning habit that’s fueled much of the industrial revolution.
But, finally, it seems we have reached peak coal, with global consumption set to “decline slightly” through the end of the decade after reaching “a plateau” in 2025, amid rising competition from renewables, natural gas, and nuclear power, according to the International Energy Agency’s Coal 2025 report.
Soot yourselves
The agency forecasts global coal demand will rise 0.5% in 2025 to a record 8.85 billion tonnes, with the US providing the largest boost, as higher natural gas prices and a slowdown in plant retirements lifted the country’s coal use, breaking a 15-year decline.
Beyond this year, however, a pullback is expected, with global coal consumption forecast to slip by about 3% by 2030. That’s led by some of the world’s biggest users — most notably China, which accounts for more than half (56%) of global demand.
While the IEA expects China’s demand to edge down by less than 1% per year to 2030, even that modest decline would carry an outsized impact given its scale: the country not only consumes but also produces more coal than all others combined, and remains the world’s largest importer.
The forecast comes as China rapidly expands renewable energy capacity and the government pushes to reach peak coal consumption before 2030. Meanwhile, other advanced economies are set to see sharper declines in coal use, including the EU, the US, and Japan, where cleaner power sources are increasingly replacing coal.
Those declines are expected to offset strong growth elsewhere, most notably India, which is set to post the largest absolute increase in coal demand, adding over 200 million tonnes by 2030 as electricity demand surges.
Still, the IEA cautions that the outlook remains highly uncertain — especially in China — as a stronger push into coal-to-chemicals projects and slower integration of renewables could keep coal demand higher for longer.
