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More extreme, more often: How global warming makes extreme events more likely

More extreme, more often: How global warming makes extreme events more likely

This week the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released their landmark report on global warming and its potential consequences. At a little over 1300 pages the full report is not exactly a light or easy read, but its conclusions can be summed up pretty succinctly — we're in trouble.

More extreme, more often

Of the many powerful charts and graphics in the shorter 39 page summary, this data struck us the most.

In a world where humans had never influenced the climate, we'd still expect to have extreme weather events. Heavy precipitation, extreme temperatures and droughts were all possible back in 1850, before our modern consumption habits warmed the planet. But as global warming continues, events that used to happen roughly once every 10 years become way, way more common.

With global temperatures now around 1°C warmer than they were 150 years ago, extreme precipitation events are now 1.3 times as likely as they used to be. Droughts in agricultural and ecological regions are now estimated to be 1.7 times as likely and extreme high temperatures are now 2.8 times as likely — and that's just where we are today. If global warming hits 1.5°C, 2°C or, in a worst case scenario, 4°C, those rare once-in-a-decade events come way more often, and with more intensity.

For more from the IPCC report, we recommend checking out the much shorter summary, or this solid write-up from the BBC.

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The UAE’s OPEC exit will hit the group in the barrels

After just shy of 60 years in OPEC, its membership even predating its status as a nation-state, the United Arab Emirates yesterday announced its shocking departure from the oil production group, effective May 1, as the knock-on effects of the Iran war continue to play out across the Middle East and the energy landscape.

For context, the UAE produces the third-highest amount of oil in the group, per April data and OPEC’s latest set of annual statistics.

According to the cartel’s 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin, the OPEC group was collectively exporting some 19 million barrels of crude oil a day last year, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for some 14% of that daily output.

UAExit means UAExit

The nation, whose energy minister told Reuters yesterday that the decision was taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” and wasn’t made following discussions with any other country, made up a healthy share of the group’s total confirmed crude oil reserves, as well.

OPEC exports chart
Sherwood News

Of the 12 nations in the core group, which was founded by just five oil superpowers back in September 1960, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily, pumping out 3.36 million and 6.05 million barrels, respectively, each day to nations around the world.

For its part, the UAE said it will “continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the official state news agency. Clearly, the nation now wants a little more control of just how much oil it can pump around the world, with the UAE having to eat a large proportion of lost revenues due to its healthy abundance and OPEC restrictions.

According to the cartel’s 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin, the OPEC group was collectively exporting some 19 million barrels of crude oil a day last year, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for some 14% of that daily output.

UAExit means UAExit

The nation, whose energy minister told Reuters yesterday that the decision was taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” and wasn’t made following discussions with any other country, made up a healthy share of the group’s total confirmed crude oil reserves, as well.

OPEC exports chart
Sherwood News

Of the 12 nations in the core group, which was founded by just five oil superpowers back in September 1960, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily, pumping out 3.36 million and 6.05 million barrels, respectively, each day to nations around the world.

For its part, the UAE said it will “continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the official state news agency. Clearly, the nation now wants a little more control of just how much oil it can pump around the world, with the UAE having to eat a large proportion of lost revenues due to its healthy abundance and OPEC restrictions.

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