Delta variant: How transmissible is the COVID variant spreading in the UK and elsewhere?

6/15/21 8:00PM

Despite a strong vaccination programme, the UK has had to put plans for a full re-opening of its economy on hold, as the Delta variant of COVID — first identified in India — has quickly become the dominant variant in the country.

Data from Public Health England reveals how the rise in Delta cases in England has far outstripped any previous variant that has been identified — suggesting it is substantially more transmissible. Estimates currently peg the R0 (reproduction number) for the Delta variant between 5 and 8, compared to an R0 of about 3 for the variant that caused Europe's first wave.

That may sound concerning, but the latest data also suggests that vaccinations are still highly effective at preventing hospitalizations for those who catch the Delta variant. 2 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine were found to be 96% effective against hospitalizations for Delta, and 2 doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine were found to be 92% effective.

In the US, Delta cases remain more sparse, but are reportedly doubling roughly every 2 weeks. Acknowledging the potential threat from Delta, the CDC labelled the Delta strain a "variant of concern" this week.

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The UAE’s OPEC exit will hit the group in the barrels

After just shy of 60 years in OPEC, its membership even predating its status as a nation-state, the United Arab Emirates yesterday announced its shocking departure from the oil production group, effective May 1, as the knock-on effects of the Iran war continue to play out across the Middle East and the energy landscape.

For context, the UAE produces the third-highest amount of oil in the group, per April data and OPEC’s latest set of annual statistics.

According to the cartel’s 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin, the OPEC group was collectively exporting some 19 million barrels of crude oil a day last year, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for some 14% of that daily output.

UAExit means UAExit

The nation, whose energy minister told Reuters yesterday that the decision was taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” and wasn’t made following discussions with any other country, made up a healthy share of the group’s total confirmed crude oil reserves, as well.

Of the 12 nations in the core group, which was founded by just five oil superpowers back in September 1960, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily, pumping out 3.36 million and 6.05 million barrels, respectively, each day to nations around the world.

For its part, the UAE said it will “continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the official state news agency. Clearly, the nation now wants a little more control of just how much oil it can pump around the world, with the UAE having to eat a large proportion of lost revenues due to its healthy abundance and OPEC restrictions.