COVID in India: Cases are exploding in the world's second most populous country

4/20/21 8:00PM

India's COVID situation is concerning.

‍The latest data from Our World In Data reveals that cases in India have exploded in the last month, with 1.7 million new cases confirmed in the last 7 days alone. That is roughly 3x the previous peak that topped out at around 650,000 new cases per week back in September. This latest surge is partly being blamed on a new COVID variant, dubbed B.1.617, which is thought to be more transmissible.

The recent wave is beginning to overwhelm healthcare facilities in India, with authorities in New Delhi announcing that hospitals could begin to run out of medical oxygen sometime today. Tuesday also saw the country register its highest ever death toll, with 1,761 official deaths recorded, although some experts believe the official numbers are likely to be undercounted across the country.

The situation in India is particularly frustrating as India is the world's largest vaccine maker, thanks to the Serum Institute of India. In a typical year India would produce roughly 60% of the world's vaccines.

For a country with such vaccine expertise, the COVID vaccination drive has been solid, but unspectacular. More than 120 million doses have been administered in India, which is an impressive logistical feat, but for a country with a population of more than 1.3 billion people actually equates to less than 10% coverage.

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The UAE’s OPEC exit will hit the group in the barrels

After just shy of 60 years in OPEC, its membership even predating its status as a nation-state, the United Arab Emirates yesterday announced its shocking departure from the oil production group, effective May 1, as the knock-on effects of the Iran war continue to play out across the Middle East and the energy landscape.

For context, the UAE produces the third-highest amount of oil in the group, per April data and OPEC’s latest set of annual statistics.

According to the cartel’s 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin, the OPEC group was collectively exporting some 19 million barrels of crude oil a day last year, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for some 14% of that daily output.

UAExit means UAExit

The nation, whose energy minister told Reuters yesterday that the decision was taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” and wasn’t made following discussions with any other country, made up a healthy share of the group’s total confirmed crude oil reserves, as well.

Of the 12 nations in the core group, which was founded by just five oil superpowers back in September 1960, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily, pumping out 3.36 million and 6.05 million barrels, respectively, each day to nations around the world.

For its part, the UAE said it will “continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the official state news agency. Clearly, the nation now wants a little more control of just how much oil it can pump around the world, with the UAE having to eat a large proportion of lost revenues due to its healthy abundance and OPEC restrictions.