The baby bust: Evidence from Europe suggests people didn't make as many babies last year

3/18/21 8:00PM

A year ago many predicted a baby boom. With everyone locked up in their houses with little else to do... you get it. However, the latest data from Europe suggests we're almost certainly in for the opposite — a baby bust.

Data from Spain estimates that the number of babies born in December 2020 and January 2021 was down roughly 20% on the year before, equating to roughly 6,000 fewer births in each month. Data from Italy shows a similar pattern — and experts now expect the same across many countries, including the US. There is even some (albeit modest) evidence of slightly fewer Google searches for terms such as "morning sickness".

It's not hard to work out why potential parents have put off the enormous responsibility of having children given how uncertain work and personal lives have been.

It is possible of course that we get a bounce back baby boom next year, or the year after, as people make up for lost time. If we don't though, the baby bust will have accelerated a tricky trend for many countries; ageing populations. Italy and Spain, two of the countries to have reported recent births data, already have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. In Italy each woman gives birth to 1.3 children per year on average, in Spain that number is even lower (1.26). Those rates have significant impacts on a country, something we wrote about in more detail here.

Jake Lahut

PAIN AT THE PUMP

Analyst: US could see $5 gas by Memorial Day, $6 per gallon on the table

Gas could hit $5 per gallon by Memorial Day, $6 by later in the summer: 'Nothing's impossible at this point'

Gas station in front of the Gordie Howe International Bridge under construction.

Tom Jones12h

The UAE’s OPEC exit will hit the group in the barrels

After just shy of 60 years in OPEC, its membership even predating its status as a nation-state, the United Arab Emirates yesterday announced its shocking departure from the oil production group, effective May 1, as the knock-on effects of the Iran war continue to play out across the Middle East and the energy landscape.

For context, the UAE produces the third-highest amount of oil in the group, per April data and OPEC’s latest set of annual statistics.

According to the cartel’s 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin, the OPEC group was collectively exporting some 19 million barrels of crude oil a day last year, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for some 14% of that daily output.

UAExit means UAExit

The nation, whose energy minister told Reuters yesterday that the decision was taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” and wasn’t made following discussions with any other country, made up a healthy share of the group’s total confirmed crude oil reserves, as well.

Of the 12 nations in the core group, which was founded by just five oil superpowers back in September 1960, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily, pumping out 3.36 million and 6.05 million barrels, respectively, each day to nations around the world.

For its part, the UAE said it will “continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the official state news agency. Clearly, the nation now wants a little more control of just how much oil it can pump around the world, with the UAE having to eat a large proportion of lost revenues due to its healthy abundance and OPEC restrictions.