Google’s Waymo in NYC near Freedom Tower

Rani Molla/Sherwood News

Where Morgan Stanley thinks autonomous taxis will be in 2032

Google’s Waymo and Tesla will still be in the lead.

12/9/25 8:41AM

Recently we laid out the current autonomous ride-share landscape, which is mostly a battle between Google’s Waymo and Tesla. According to a new report from Morgan Stanley’s research team that looks forward to the next half decade, robotaxis’ future — while expected to grow rapidly — might not be so different.

In 2032, the Morgan Stanley research team expects Waymo and Tesla to command about 70% (~38% and ~29%, respectively) of autonomous miles driven in the US.

In turn, the firm believes autonomous miles will represent about 30% of all ride-share miles in the US.

% of US autonomous ride-share miles — Morgan Stanley

Looking at that from the perspective of trips and the apps that controls them, and using the current partnership mix, Uber and Lyft will capture just about 30% of all AV trips, down from basically controlling the entire ride-share market now.

Share of AV trips by app provider — Morgan Stanley

As these companies scale their autonomous efforts and improve their tech, costs are widely expected to decline. Morgan Stanley believes cost per mile for Waymo, which is currently nearly double Tesla’s cost, will drop from $1.43 to $0.99 by 2028. Meanwhile, the cost per mile for Tesla ride-sharing will dip below the cost of car ownership, which is growing.

autonomous cost per mile — Morgan Stanley

Much of the future of ride-sharing, according to Morgan Stanley, hinges on whether or not robotaxis create more demand or take from current demand.

“AV incrementality remains critical for Uber/Lyft, who will likely lose significant share of the rideshare industry as autonomous platform disruption grows,” the researchers wrote.

Jon Keegan3/6/26

OpenAI reportedly delaying erotica feature to focus on “gains in intelligence”

OpenAI is delaying its planned “adult mode,” as it seeks to shore up ChatGPT’s core capabilities before the chatbot can generate erotic content.

A source within OpenAI told tech news site Sources that the company will miss its Q1 target for launching the feature:

“We’re pushing out the launch of adult mode so we can focus on work that is a higher priority for more users right now, including gains in intelligence, personality improvements, personalization, and making the experience more proactive.”

The company said it still believes in “treating adults like adults,” but said it wants to get the experience right. OpenAI has been testing user age estimation technology ahead of the planned release.

Liz Reid on where Google Search ends and Gemini begins

“We’re pushing out the launch of adult mode so we can focus on work that is a higher priority for more users right now, including gains in intelligence, personality improvements, personalization, and making the experience more proactive.”

Rani Molla

3/6/26

Why Apple is moving into the lower-cost smartphone and laptop markets

The luxury tech maker is heading down-market.

Man taking picture of Times Square using smart phone, personal perspective view

Ads have entered the chat

Advertisers are crowding into the next digital frontier.

Rani Molla3/6/26

Jon Keegan3/6/26

Anthropic will sue the Pentagon over supply chain risk designation, Amodei says

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said in a public post that the company will sue the Pentagon after receiving a letter from the Department of Defense officially designating Anthropic as “a supply chain risk to America’s national security.”

Amodei says that the effect of the unprecedented designation for an American company is more narrow than originally described, and that most of its customers would not be affected.

“With respect to our customers, it plainly applies only to the use of Claude by customers as a direct part of contracts with the Department of War, not all use of Claude by customers who have such contracts.”

Amodei says the company does not “believe this action is legally sound, and we see no choice but to challenge it in court.”

The CEO also apologized for statements he made in a leaked internal memo in which he claimed that the company was targeted because it didn’t show “dictator-style praise” for President Trump.

Where things stand with the Department of War

“With respect to our customers, it plainly applies only to the use of Claude by customers as a direct part of contracts with the Department of War, not all use of Claude by customers who have such contracts.”

Amodei says the company does not “believe this action is legally sound, and we see no choice but to challenge it in court.”

The CEO also apologized for statements he made in a leaked internal memo in which he claimed that the company was targeted because it didn’t show “dictator-style praise” for President Trump.

$40B💰

Rani Molla3/6/26

SoftBank is going to great lengths to double down on OpenAI — including taking on significant debt. After completing a $40 billion investment to become one of the ChatGPT maker’s largest backers, the Japanese conglomerate is now seeking a roughly $40 billion loan with a 12-month term, Bloomberg reports.

The financing would be SoftBank’s largest-ever dollar-denominated deal. The AI investment has helped lift profits, but it is also pressuring SoftBank’s credit profile.