What prediction markets think will happen with Apple’s CEO
People inside the company say executive changes are coming, The Information reports.
Silicon Valley insiders — including Apple executives — increasingly believe longtime Apple CEO Tim Cook may be nearing the end of his tenure, The Information reports. The murmurs follow a Financial Times story last month suggesting Cook could step down as early as next year. Bloomberg quickly countered that while Apple is indeed working on succession planning, a transition isn’t as imminent as the FT implied. Both outlets have suggested John Ternus, Apple’s hardware chief, as the most likely successor.
But outsiders also have skin in the game, judging by a recent flurry of prediction market contracts speculating on who will follow Cook and when.
On Polymarket, the market-implied probability that Cook leaves by March 31, 2026, sits at 18%, down from a high of more than 50% late last month. Another Polymarket contract gives Ternus a 56% chance of succeeding Cook, compared with 18% for software engineering VP Craig Federighi and 10.4% for marketing chief Greg Joswiak.
Meanwhile, on Kalshi, Ternus’ odds are even higher, at 74%, followed by Sri Santhanam, VP of Apple’s Silicon Engineering Group, at 20%. A separate Kalshi market puts the chance of Cook leaving by 2027 at 48%, with 17% betting it could happen by July 2026.
