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Tesla Optimus humanoid robot on display inside a Tesla pop...
Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot on display (Stanislav Kogikuvia/Getty Images)

Tesla’s mission-critical Optimus project is reportedly falling behind schedule. Traders are buying the stock anyway.

The Information reports that Tesla is far behind on its promise to make 5,000 Optimus robots by year’s end, and the product is facing engineering challenges.

Elon Musk says Tesla’s Optimus robots will be the “biggest product of all time.”

But, as is so often the case, the company seems to be falling behind on the CEO’s timeline for producing them. As is also often the case, investors don’t seem to think that’s a problem.

A report from The Information on Friday says Optimus production is well behind Musk’s goal for 5,000 of the robots this year. “Hundreds” of the sleek black-and-white bots have been produced to date, and many of them sit without hands or forearms as the company works on replicating the mechanics of five fingers.

How did traders react, you ask? They don’t seem to think the speed bump will derail the company’s march upward, bidding Tesla stock up 4.9% by midday and putting it on track for its best day since July 2.

Tesla traders have a long and successful history of detaching from the fundamentals of the company in favor of dreams of an autonomous future (or maybe just big future stock returns).

For his part, Musk says Optimus could propel Tesla to be worth $25 trillion. He has a vision that every home and business will have a $20,000 Tesla Optimus toiling away on the tasks we can’t be bothered with.

During Tesla’s Q2 earnings call this week, Musk detailed some of the engineering challenges:

“It’s a very hard problem to solve. You have to design every part of it, from physics’ first principle, principles. There’s nothing that’s off the shelf that actually works. So you’ve got to design every motor, gearbox, power electronics, control electronics, sensors, the mechanical elements.”

And that’s just the hardware, which isn’t the hardest part. For these robots to truly be useful to the public, they need to know how to move through the world, use tools, walk dogs, and serve drinks all by themselves, unlike the human remote operators who were controlling the robots at Tesla’s Cybercab launch event.

On the earnings call, Musk acknowledged that autonomy is something the company needs to solve to unlock its next act, but it isn’t there yet. Musk said Tesla was in a “weird transition period,” which could hurt the company’s financials before full-service robotaxis and Optimus arrive.

“Does that mean, like, we could have a few rough quarters? Yeah, we probably could have a few rough quarters. I’m not saying we will, but we could, you know, Q4, Q1, maybe Q2. But once you get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year — certainly by the end of next year — I’d be surprised if Tesla economics are not very compelling.”

Musk offered few specifics about Optimus on the call, but reiterated it was Tesla’s destiny:

“I’d be surprised if, at the end of five years, 60 months from now, if we are not roughly making 100,000 Optimus robots a month, I would be shocked.”

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Rani Molla

After Tesla earnings, prediction markets think unsupervised FSD is less likely than ever to be rolled out this year

Tesla’s unsupervised full self-driving technology, which would autonomously ferry passengers around without a human driver having to pay attention, is supposed to help catapult the electric vehicle company’s valuation further into the stratosphere. It was also supposed to be available this year, but prediction markets participants, as well as former Tesla self-driving leaders, no longer think that will happen.

On Teslas earnings call this week, CEO Elon Musk said the company now had “clarity” on achieving unsupervised full self-driving — something he’s repeatedly said would be available at least in some markets this year.

The comments seemed to give Polymarket prediction markets participants some clarity. There, the market-implied probability that Tesla will release unsupervised FSD this year reached its lowest point since the event contract was opened in May.

The odds of it happening had been pretty high up until late June, when Tesla’s long-awaited robotaxi launched with a safety driver in the passenger seat. The unsupervised FSD event contract specifies the feature can have “no requirement for human intervention.”

tech
Rani Molla

Banks prepare record $38 billion debt financing to fund Oracle-tied data centers

Banks led by JPMorgan and Mitsubishi UFJ are preparing a $38 billion debt offering to fund two Oracle-tied data centers in Texas and Wisconsin, Bloomberg reports. The projects, developed by Vantage Data Centers, will support Oracle’s $500 billion Stargate AI infrastructure push with OpenAI and Nvidia.

The loans — $23.25 billion for Texas and $14.75 billion for Wisconsin — are expected to mature in four years, price about 2.5 percentage points higher than the benchmark rate, and mark the largest AI infrastructure financing to date.

Oracle executives recently said that the company anticipates cloud gross margins will reach 35% and that it expects to see $166 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue by FY 2030.

Oracle is up 1.5% premarket.

The loans — $23.25 billion for Texas and $14.75 billion for Wisconsin — are expected to mature in four years, price about 2.5 percentage points higher than the benchmark rate, and mark the largest AI infrastructure financing to date.

Oracle executives recently said that the company anticipates cloud gross margins will reach 35% and that it expects to see $166 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue by FY 2030.

Oracle is up 1.5% premarket.

tech
Rani Molla

Google rises on official announcement of Anthropic deal worth “tens of billions”

Google has made its deal to expand AI compute to Anthropic, reported earlier this week by Bloomberg, official. In order to train and serve its Claude model, Anthropic has agreed to pay Google Cloud “tens of billions of dollars” to access up to 1 million tensor processing units, or TPUs, as well as other cloud services.

Google, of course, has a 14% stake in Anthropic, making this one of the many circular AI deals happening at the moment.

“Anthropic and Google have a longstanding partnership and this latest expansion will help us continue to grow the compute we need to define the frontier of AI,” Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao said in the press release. “Our customers — from Fortune 500 companies to AI-native startups — depend on Claude for their most important work, and this expanded capacity ensures we can meet our exponentially growing demand while keeping our models at the cutting edge of the industry.”

The announcement has sent Google up again, more than 1% premarket.

tech
Rani Molla

Report: Snap seeking $1 billion to finance its AR glasses division in “existential” fundraise

Snap is down more than 1% this morning following news that the company is attempting to raise $1 billion for its AR glasses unit in what someone told Sources.news was an “existential” fundraise.

A Snap spokesperson countered, “We do not need to raise money to execute against our plans to publicly launch Specs in 2026, but remain open to opportunities that could accelerate our growth.”

Multiple investors are involved in the talks, including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, according to Sources.news. The report also noted that Snap plans to turn the unit that makes its Specs glasses into an independent subsidiary à la Google’s Waymo “that can continue raising capital from investors.”

Snap plans to produce about 100,000 units of next year’s Specs, pricing them around $2,500.

The beleaguered stock saw quite a bit of retail interest last month, amid r/WallStreetBets chatter that its low nominal price made it a potential acquisition target.

Multiple investors are involved in the talks, including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, according to Sources.news. The report also noted that Snap plans to turn the unit that makes its Specs glasses into an independent subsidiary à la Google’s Waymo “that can continue raising capital from investors.”

Snap plans to produce about 100,000 units of next year’s Specs, pricing them around $2,500.

The beleaguered stock saw quite a bit of retail interest last month, amid r/WallStreetBets chatter that its low nominal price made it a potential acquisition target.

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