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Tesla Robotaxi
A person steps out of the front passenger seat of a driverless Tesla Robotaxi in Austin in June (Jay Janner/Getty Images)

Tesla has two days to remove Robotaxi safety drivers in Austin to reach Elon Musk’s repeated goal

It doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly said that the company would remove the safety drivers from its Austin Robotaxi service by year’s end:

September X post: “The safety driver is just there for the first few months to be extra safe. Should be no safety driver by end of year.”

October earnings call: “We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year, so within a few months.”

December xAI Hackathon: “Unsupervised is pretty much solved at this point. So there will be Tesla Robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them. Not even anyone in the passenger seat in about three weeks.”

With just two days left in the year, there’s still no indication that Tesla has begun offering driverless Robotaxi rides to the public — despite Musk’s repeated assurances that it would.

So far, reports are limited to Tesla employees, friends of the company, and Musk himself testing unsupervised rides around Austin.

While the year-end deadline is an arbitrary one, the goal is a very important milestone for Tesla and its shareholders. A true driverless Robotaxi service would be proof of concept for the company’s Full Self-Driving software, the tech that’s supposed to elevate Tesla above the regular automakers and help justify its roughly $1.5 trillion valuation. For Tesla, it signifies no less than the future of the company and of transportation more broadly.

And the delay suggests some bumps in the road. Back in October, Musk gave a caveat to the goal of removing safety drivers by saying, “We’re obviously being very cautious about the deployment. So, our goal is to be actually paranoid about deployment because, obviously, even one accident will be front-page headline news worldwide. So, it’s better for us to take a cautious approach here.”

Of the roughly 30 Robotaxis operating in Austin, eight of them have crashed since June, according to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data, despite only a handful operating at a time. That suggests the service may still be far riskier than human drivers on a per-vehicle or per-mile basis, despite Tesla’s claims to the contrary.

Musk has also promised the Robotaxi program would expand to 8 to 10 cities this year, down from a previous goal this summer of serving half the US population. He also said there would be 1,500 Robotaxis in service across the Bay Area and Austin by year-end. Currently there are about 160 in service in total, data from Robotaxi Tracker shows.

Musk, of course, has a history of being notoriously wrong on his own timelines. Still, this goal is certainly an important one.

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SoftBank becomes OpenAI’s biggest backer after fully funding $40 billion investment

SoftBank has fully funded its $40 billion investment in OpenAI, overtaking Microsoft as the company’s largest financial backer, CNBC reports. The deal was contingent on OpenAI transitioning to a for-profit public benefit corporation, which it did in September.

However, longtime partner Microsoft retains substantial influence over OpenAI with its roughly $13 billion investment, which translates to a stake worth about 27% of the startup’s valuation — which has been cited as high as $830 billion — as well as exclusive cloud and commercial licensing rights tied to Azure.

tech

Tesla-compiled estimates show Q4 deliveries expected to fall 15% from last year

A Tesla-compiled average of analyst estimates pegs fourth-quarter deliveries at 422,850, which would mark a 15% slump from the 495,570 the company delivered in the same quarter last year, if realized. The full-year estimate of 1.6 million vehicles would represent an 8% decline from 2024 and the second annual decline for the EV company. The estimates are notably lower than the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg and FactSet, which have been declining over the past month.

The market-implied odds derived from event contracts show that most traders think Tesla deliveries will be more than 410,000 but less than 420,000 in the quarter ending December.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Tesla typically shares its compilation of analyst estimates with institutional investors, this is the first time the company has shared those numbers on its own website. Tesla’s numbers include estimates from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co., HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

Actual numbers are expected Friday.

tech
Rani Molla

Cybertruck battery material supplier writes down Tesla deal by 99%

South Korea’s L&F Co., a supplier of battery material for Tesla’s “apocalypse-proof” Cybertruck, has written down the value of its Tesla contract by more than 99%, Bloomberg reports — another sign that Cybertruck sales are faltering.

The company cited changes in supply quantities, slashing a contract valued at nearly $3 billion in 2023 to about $7,000 now.

tech
Rani Molla

Estimates for Tesla’s Q4 deliveries are declining

Analysts across the board are expecting Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries to decline from last year, as record deliveries fueled by the end of the EV tax credit come to grips with the actual end of the EV tax credit. And as the end of the quarter nears, estimates have sunk further.

Currently the FactSet consensus estimate expects Tesla to deliver 449,000 vehicles in Q4, down 9.5% from last year’s 496,000 and down from 450,000 earlier this month. Bloomberg now pegs the number at 445,000, down from a 448,000 consensus estimate at the start of December.

Prediction markets are even less bullish. The market-implied odds derived through event contracts show that less than a quarter of traders believe Tesla will surpass 430,000 deliveries in the quarter ending December. The actual delivery numbers are expected to be released in early January.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Currently the FactSet consensus estimate expects Tesla to deliver 449,000 vehicles in Q4, down 9.5% from last year’s 496,000 and down from 450,000 earlier this month. Bloomberg now pegs the number at 445,000, down from a 448,000 consensus estimate at the start of December.

Prediction markets are even less bullish. The market-implied odds derived through event contracts show that less than a quarter of traders believe Tesla will surpass 430,000 deliveries in the quarter ending December. The actual delivery numbers are expected to be released in early January.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

tech
Jon Keegan

Chinese AI chatbots reportedly must answer 2,000 questions, prove censorship compliance

For American companies building AI today, its basically a free-for-all, a self-regulation zone with zero federal restrictions.

But for Chinese AI companies, the Chinese Communist Party exerts strict control over what models get released and what questions they cannot answer.

A report in The Wall Street Journal details the rigorous tests that AI models are subjected to before being released on the global stage to compete with Western AI models.

AI models must answer 2,000 questions that are frequently updated and achieve a 95% refusal rate for queries related to forbidden topics, like the Tiananmen Square massacre or human rights violations, according to the report.

The strict regulatory framework does have some safety advantages, such as preventing chatbots from sharing violent or pornographic material as well as protections from self-harm, an issue that American AI companies are currently wrestling with.

A report in The Wall Street Journal details the rigorous tests that AI models are subjected to before being released on the global stage to compete with Western AI models.

AI models must answer 2,000 questions that are frequently updated and achieve a 95% refusal rate for queries related to forbidden topics, like the Tiananmen Square massacre or human rights violations, according to the report.

The strict regulatory framework does have some safety advantages, such as preventing chatbots from sharing violent or pornographic material as well as protections from self-harm, an issue that American AI companies are currently wrestling with.

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