Guy waving an American flag in a tiny Tesla Cybertruck

A person waving a US flag drives a toy Tesla Cybertruck (Frederic J. Brown/Getty Images)

Tesla delivery numbers are out this week. Analysts think it will be a bloodbath.

Analysts on average are expecting Tesla’s biggest year-over-year quarterly decline ever.

6/30/25 9:36AM

Tesla is reporting its Q2 deliveries Wednesday — and judging from leading indicators and analyst estimates, it’s not looking good for the electric car maker. Monthly sales have been dropping across Tesla’s biggest markets, including the US, China and Europe, as the company contends with its CEO’s political fallout, increased competition and an aging lineup of cars. The company’s mostly successful robotaxi launch last week isn’t likely to move the needle on vehicle sales, which make up the lion’s share of Tesla’s revenue. After all, the launch only includes 10 to 20 sort-of autonomous cars whose technology is not yet available on the wider Tesla fleet.

Last year, Tesla delivered 444,000 cars in Q2. After lowering their estimates throughout the quarter this year, analysts think Q2 2025 will look much worse.

Bloomberg currently pegs the analyst consensus at 391,000, 12% lower than last year.
FactSet’s consensus estimate is 387,000, 13% lower.
JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman said today he’s lowered the estimate he made around the time of Q1 earnings from 395,000 to an even lower 360,000, 19% below last year.
An analyst who goes by Troy Teslike and is often correct on these matters has continually lowered his estimate over the quarter, having started at 412,000 and now revised it down to 355,000, which would be 20% lower than last year.

That’s a spread of 53,000 to 89,000 fewer Teslas sold in Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024 — all of which would represent Tesla’s biggest quarterly decline ever.

Of course, terrible sales in the second quarter, following terrible sales in the first quarter, doesn’t bode well for the full year. Considering that the government will likely take away federal $7,500 EV tax credits, hurting demand, the back half of the year could be worse.

Analysts expect Tesla’s full-year sales to decline for the second year in a row, with the FactSet consensus currently reflecting a 6% drop for 2025 compared to 2024. On average, they expect Tesla will sell 1.68 million cars this year, down from 1.79 million last year. The company sold 1.81 million in 2023.

Rani Molla3h

Elon Musk says Tesla Robotaxis are operating without drivers, sending stock higher

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla’s Robotaxis are now operating in Austin without a safety monitor. Tesla has been testing driverless cars in the area for about a month, and Musk had previously said the company would remove safety drivers by the end of 2025.

It’s unclear how many exactly of the roughly 50 Robotaxis the company operates in the area don’t have drivers. “Starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors, and the ratio will increase over time,” Tesla head of AI Ashok Elluswamy posted shortly after Musk. Ethan McKenna, the person behind Robotaxi Tracker, estimates it's two or three vehicles.

What is clear is that the move is good for Tesla’s stock, which is currently up 3.5%, extending its gains after Musk’s tweet. Morgan Stanley said yesterday that it considers the removal of safety drivers a “precursor to personal unsupervised FSD rollout.” Unsupervised FSD is widely considered to be integral to the would-be autonomous company’s value proposition.

At Davos earlier on Thursday, Musk said, "self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point."

Just started Tesla Robotaxi drives in Austin with no safety monitor in the car.

Congrats to the @Tesla_AI team!

If you’re interested in solving real-world AI, which is likely to lead to AGI imo, join Tesla AI. Solving real-world AI for Optimus will be 100X harder than cars. https://t.co/OnP8gredWD
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 22, 2026

Jon Keegan5h

Survey: CEOs and workers have wildly different thoughts on AI productivity gains

One of the main reasons companies are rushing to adopt AI is to give their workers the miraculous productivity boost that AI companies have been promising — and believe will quickly earn back their investment.

But now that companies have been using AI for a while, a growing perception gap is emerging between the C-suite and their employees.

The Wall Street Journal reported on new findings by research firm Section, which surveyed 5,000 white-collar workers from companies with more than 1,000 employees.

More than 70% of the corporate executives in the survey said they were “excited” by AI, and 19% of them said the tools have saved them more than 12 hours of work per week.

But nonmanagement workers had a very different take on AI. Almost 70% of this group said AI made them feel “anxious or overwhelmed,” and 40% said the tools saved them no time at all.

CEOs Say AI Is Making Work More Efficient. Employees Tell a Different Story.

The Wall Street Journal reported on new findings by research firm Section, which surveyed 5,000 white-collar workers from companies with more than 1,000 employees.

More than 70% of the corporate executives in the survey said they were “excited” by AI, and 19% of them said the tools have saved them more than 12 hours of work per week.

But nonmanagement workers had a very different take on AI. Almost 70% of this group said AI made them feel “anxious or overwhelmed,” and 40% said the tools saved them no time at all.

Rani Molla5h

Tesla jumps as Musk says he expects Optimus sales next year, European and Chinese FSD approval next month

Tesla CEO Elon Musk now says he thinks the company’s Optimus robots will be for sale to the public “by the end of next year.”

According to Musk, “That’s when we are confident that there is very high reliability, very high safety, and the range of functionality is also very high.”

Like many of Musk’s other timelines, that’s later than he previously predicted. In 2024, for example, Musk said the AI robots would be for sale in 2025.

Speaking with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink on a panel today at the World Economic Forum, Musk said the robots are currently doing “simple tasks” in Tesla factories, but believes “they’ll be doing more complex tasks and be deployed in an industrial environment” by the end of this year, before going on sale to the public in 2027.

Musk forecasts a future with “billions” of AI robots that “saturate all human needs.”

On a separate topic, Musk was bullish on regulatory approval for what Tesla calls Full Self-Driving technology in markets outside the US. “We hope to get supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a similar timing for China,” he said. Musk has said in the past that the pending regulatory approval for FSD in Europe is a key reason why Tesla’s sales in the region have been tanking.

Rani Molla7h

Waymo is now offering autonomous rides in Miami

Google subsidiary Waymo announced Thursday that it’s officially open for autonomous ride-hailing in Miami, expanding the company’s coverage area to six US cities. The company will be “inviting new riders on a rolling basis” to take rides across its 60-square-mile service area, which includes the Design District, Wynwood, Brickell, and Coral Gables. Waymo said it plans to expand to Miami International Airport “soon.”

Competitor Tesla currently operates a ride-hailing service with a safety monitor in the vehicle in Austin and the Bay Area.

Rani Molla8h

Apple to promote Siri from assistant to chatbot

Bloomberg reports that Apple plans to transform its Siri assistant into a full-fledged chatbot similar to OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

The chatbot would be integrated throughout the iPhone’s operating system rather than offered as a stand-alone app. It’s expected to arrive later this year and would be separate from more incremental, non-chatbot improvements to Siri rolling out in the coming months aimed at making the existing assistant more usable.

Both updates will be powered by Google’s AI models, Bloomberg reports, but the chatbot upgrade will be more advanced and akin to the much-lauded Gemini 3.

While the difference between an assistant and a chatbot may sound subtle, it represents a meaningful shift for Apple, which has long avoided a fully conversational interface and has lagged rivals that embraced one. Any new Siri chat capabilities could also eventually extend to other Apple devices under development, including wearables such as the pin Apple is developing.

Apple to Revamp Siri as a Built-In iPhone, Mac Chatbot to Fend Off OpenAI