Guy waving an American flag in a tiny Tesla Cybertruck

A person waving a US flag drives a toy Tesla Cybertruck (Frederic J. Brown/Getty Images)

Tesla could sell a record number of vehicles in the US this quarter

That won’t be enough to keep full-year global sales from falling.

9/9/25 10:46AM

Tesla is widely expected to have a bad year, but it could have a very good third quarter.

A popular analyst who goes by the name Troy Teslike currently expects Tesla to sell a record 178,000 vehicles in the US this quarter, which is two-thirds of the way through, up from 156,000 a year ago. (Tesla doesn’t break out vehicle deliveries by region, so Teslike backs up those numbers using Vehicle Identification Number data.)

The surge, he says, is due in part to pulled-forward demand from subsequent quarters, as EV buyers generally try and purchase vehicles before the government’s $7,500 credit ends on September 30. Tesla is also trying to get ahead of the incentive deadline, since it’s expected to hurt both the company’s top and bottom lines, by offering steeper discounts than other EV makers. The effort appears to be working, as Tesla is running out of inventory in the US.

But while the US is Tesla’s biggest market, just one quarter of sales growth isn’t going to smooth out the declines from earlier this year, and presumably gains in Q3 will come at the expense of Q4 sales, after the incentive expires. Nor will it undo continued declining sales in Tesla’s other major markets, including China and Europe.

Globally, Teslike estimates Tesla sales will be 466,000 in the third quarter — less than a percentage point higher than Q3 2024 (though quite a bit higher than the FactSet analyst consensus of 433,000). For the full year, Teslike is estimating 1.6 million deliveries, a 9% drop in sales compared with last year, about the same as analysts.

“We’re in this weird transition period where we will lose a lot of incentives in the US,” CEO Elon Musk himself recently told investors, adding that Tesla "could have a few rough quarters” ahead.

Rani Molla

It turns out Tesla’s Cybercab might need to have a steering wheel and pedals after all

Tesla’s Cybercab was supposed to be a steering-wheel-less alternative to its affordable mass market car.

Matt Phillips23h

Intel romps amid reported attempt to poach a 21-year Taiwan Semiconductor veteran

A report in the Taiwanese press that Intel is attempting to recruit a recently retired top Taiwan Semiconductor executive, Wei-Jen Lo, to lead R&D at Intel’s troubled foundry division may account for the bump in Intel shares Tuesday, one analyst told us.

A synopsis of the report from technology analysis and news outlet TrendForce News notes:

“If confirmed, the move could have significant implications for TSMC and the broader Taiwanese semiconductor industry, especially as Intel aggressively expands its foundry business with support from Washington and backing from tech giants like NVIDIA and SoftBank, the report adds.”

But some skepticism about Lo, 75 years old, returning to Intel, where he worked before joining TSMC in 2004, is also warranted, TrendForce says:

“Industry insiders cited by the report say it is unlikely he would join Intel again, given TSMC’s non-compete rules, Intel’s status as a direct competitor, Lo’s advanced age, health considerations, and his long-standing loyalty to TSMC founder Morris Chang. On the other hand, some industry observers warn that Lo, a U.S. citizen, would be difficult for TSMC to restrict, even with non-compete clauses.”

Intel shares have doubled over the last three months, since the US government took a 10% stake in the company in August. Intel is the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 over that period.

Intel Reportedly Eyes Retired TSMC Veteran Wei-Jen Lo, Advanced Node Pioneer, to Lead R&D

“If confirmed, the move could have significant implications for TSMC and the broader Taiwanese semiconductor industry, especially as Intel aggressively expands its foundry business with support from Washington and backing from tech giants like NVIDIA and SoftBank, the report adds.”

But some skepticism about Lo, 75 years old, returning to Intel, where he worked before joining TSMC in 2004, is also warranted, TrendForce says:

“Industry insiders cited by the report say it is unlikely he would join Intel again, given TSMC’s non-compete rules, Intel’s status as a direct competitor, Lo’s advanced age, health considerations, and his long-standing loyalty to TSMC founder Morris Chang. On the other hand, some industry observers warn that Lo, a U.S. citizen, would be difficult for TSMC to restrict, even with non-compete clauses.”

Intel shares have doubled over the last three months, since the US government took a 10% stake in the company in August. Intel is the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 over that period.

Rani Molla

Eye on AI

23h

All eyes on Google Search revenue

It’s hard to tell what’s happening with Search.

Sunny blue sky with large storm clouds in spring.

This earnings season, all eyes are on cloud revenue growth

AI computing demand is generating huge revenue streams for hyperscalers, but the market is closely watching the pace of growth, which is slowing.

Jon Keegan10/28/25

Nokia surges as Nvidia invests $1 billion in company, a 2.9% stake

Nvidia is taking a 2.9% stake in Nokia, as the Finnish mobile networking company has successfully pivoted to AI and data center technology.

In a press release announcing the deal, Nokia said:

“Nokia intends to accelerate development of Nokia’s 5G & 6G RAN software to run on NVIDIA’s architecture and will make investments to drive Nokia’s strategic goal of increasing its presence in the AI & Cloud market with data center aligned networking solutions within its Network Infrastructure business. Nokia and NVIDIA have agreed to collaborate on AI networking solutions and explore opportunities to incorporate Nokia’s data center switching and optical technologies in NVIDIA’s future AI infrastructure architecture.”

Nokia’s stock shot up over 20% on news of the deal.

Nvidia to Invest $1 Billion in Nokia in AI Networking Push

“Nokia intends to accelerate development of Nokia’s 5G & 6G RAN software to run on NVIDIA’s architecture and will make investments to drive Nokia’s strategic goal of increasing its presence in the AI & Cloud market with data center aligned networking solutions within its Network Infrastructure business. Nokia and NVIDIA have agreed to collaborate on AI networking solutions and explore opportunities to incorporate Nokia’s data center switching and optical technologies in NVIDIA’s future AI infrastructure architecture.”