Tech
tech
Jon Keegan

OpenAI announces new frontier models o3 and o3 mini

On the last day of “shipmas,” OpenAI saved what might be the biggest news for last, though the 1-800 number remains the most fun.

In a puzzling branding move, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced their latest frontier models: “o3” and “o3-mini.” For some reason (possibly trademark related), they’re skipping “o2” altogether.

The models are not available to the public yet, but researchers can apply to participate in “public safety testing” of the models, which are expected to be widely released at the end of January. The new models feature multistep “reasoning” like the current o1 model, but also apply the process to safety, leading to a higher success rate at catching prohibited responses, according to Altman.

Altman announced the models on a livestream and revealed that the new models had achieved the highest scores on a benchmark test that has been notoriously difficult for AI models to solve.

The ARC-AGI benchmark is a visual test that consists of a series of patterns of squares on a grid, and the model must apply unique solutions to each puzzle, which requires learning new skills with each problem.

Altman said that the o3 model performed 20% better than the current o1 model on coding benchmarks, and highlighted the performance and cost improvements for the smaller o3-mini model.

The models are not available to the public yet, but researchers can apply to participate in “public safety testing” of the models, which are expected to be widely released at the end of January. The new models feature multistep “reasoning” like the current o1 model, but also apply the process to safety, leading to a higher success rate at catching prohibited responses, according to Altman.

Altman announced the models on a livestream and revealed that the new models had achieved the highest scores on a benchmark test that has been notoriously difficult for AI models to solve.

The ARC-AGI benchmark is a visual test that consists of a series of patterns of squares on a grid, and the model must apply unique solutions to each puzzle, which requires learning new skills with each problem.

Altman said that the o3 model performed 20% better than the current o1 model on coding benchmarks, and highlighted the performance and cost improvements for the smaller o3-mini model.

More Tech

See all Tech
tech

SoftBank becomes OpenAI’s biggest backer after fully funding $40 billion investment

SoftBank has fully funded its $40 billion investment in OpenAI, overtaking Microsoft as the company’s largest financial backer, CNBC reports. The deal was contingent on OpenAI transitioning to a for-profit public benefit corporation, which it did in September.

However, longtime partner Microsoft retains substantial influence over OpenAI with its roughly $13 billion investment, which translates to a stake worth about 27% of the startup’s valuation — which has been cited as high as $830 billion — as well as exclusive cloud and commercial licensing rights tied to Azure.

tech

Tesla-compiled estimates show Q4 deliveries expected to fall 15% from last year

A Tesla-compiled average of analyst estimates pegs fourth-quarter deliveries at 422,850, which would mark a 15% slump from the 495,570 the company delivered in the same quarter last year, if realized. The full-year estimate of 1.6 million vehicles would represent an 8% decline from 2024 and the second annual decline for the EV company. The estimates are notably lower than the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg and FactSet, which have been declining over the past month.

The market-implied odds derived from event contracts show that most traders think Tesla deliveries will be more than 410,000 but less than 420,000 in the quarter ending December.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Tesla typically shares its compilation of analyst estimates with institutional investors, this is the first time the company has shared those numbers on its own website. Tesla’s numbers include estimates from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co., HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

Actual numbers are expected Friday.

tech
Rani Molla

Cybertruck battery material supplier writes down Tesla deal by 99%

South Korea’s L&F Co., a supplier of battery material for Tesla’s “apocalypse-proof” Cybertruck, has written down the value of its Tesla contract by more than 99%, Bloomberg reports — another sign that Cybertruck sales are faltering.

The company cited changes in supply quantities, slashing a contract valued at nearly $3 billion in 2023 to about $7,000 now.

tech
Rani Molla

Estimates for Tesla’s Q4 deliveries are declining

Analysts across the board are expecting Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries to decline from last year, as record deliveries fueled by the end of the EV tax credit come to grips with the actual end of the EV tax credit. And as the end of the quarter nears, estimates have sunk further.

Currently the FactSet consensus estimate expects Tesla to deliver 449,000 vehicles in Q4, down 9.5% from last year’s 496,000 and down from 450,000 earlier this month. Bloomberg now pegs the number at 445,000, down from a 448,000 consensus estimate at the start of December.

Prediction markets are even less bullish. The market-implied odds derived through event contracts show that less than a quarter of traders believe Tesla will surpass 430,000 deliveries in the quarter ending December. The actual delivery numbers are expected to be released in early January.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Currently the FactSet consensus estimate expects Tesla to deliver 449,000 vehicles in Q4, down 9.5% from last year’s 496,000 and down from 450,000 earlier this month. Bloomberg now pegs the number at 445,000, down from a 448,000 consensus estimate at the start of December.

Prediction markets are even less bullish. The market-implied odds derived through event contracts show that less than a quarter of traders believe Tesla will surpass 430,000 deliveries in the quarter ending December. The actual delivery numbers are expected to be released in early January.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.