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How many vehicles analysts think Tesla will deliver this quarter

After a record quarter fueled by the end of the federal EV tax credit, Tesla deliveries are expected to drop.

12/10/25 2:33PM

Last quarter, buoyed by the last gasps of the federal EV tax credit, Tesla delivered more vehicles than it had in any quarter ever — a feat that led to record revenue as well.

But now comes the aftermath, when the EV company has to reckon with the loss of that tax credit as well as a presumed dip in sales from the pulled-forward demand. How bad will it be?

Analysts surveyed by FactSet estimate Tesla will deliver 450,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, down 9% from last year’s 496,000. The Bloomberg analyst consensus expects Tesla to deliver 448,000, down 10%.

A well-regarded and frequently correct Tesla analyst — his numbers were much closer than the rest last quarter — who goes by Troy Teslike recently lowered his estimate to 406,000, citing weaker production and demand. His estimate represents an 18% year-over-year decline.

All of the estimates would imply an annual decline in sales at Tesla, a company that’s actively trying to distance itself from its carmaker roots.

Very few traders are as bullish on deliveries as FactSet or Bloomberg, with market-implied odds derived from event contracts pricing in just a 41% chance of Tesla delivering 430,000 or more vehicles.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Rani Molla1h

Epic scores two victories as “Fortnite” returns to Google Play and appeals court keeps injunction against Apple

“Fortnite” maker Epic Games notched two wins Thursday in its drawn-out battle against Big Tech’s app stores. “Fortnite” returned to the Google Play Store in the US, Reuters reports, as Epic continues working with Google to secure court approval for their settlement.

Meanwhile, a US appeals court partly reversed sanctions against Apple in Epic’s antitrust case, calling parts of the order overly broad, but upheld the contempt finding and left a sweeping injunction in place — keeping pressure on Apple to allow developers to steer users to outside payment options and reduce its tight control over how apps can communicate and monetize on iOS.

So many reasons to drop in this month... and now we're on Google Play in the U.S. too!

Android: https://t.co/Z6pkYqYsRI
iPhone: https://t.co/JNpTVneGMN
PC: https://t.co/CPsjp3XNdo pic.twitter.com/TV9b1ZlqfJ
— Fortnite (@Fortnite) December 11, 2025

Jon Keegan1h

Report: AI-powered toys tell kids where to find matches, parrot Chinese government propaganda

You may want to think twice before buying your kids a fancy AI-powered plush toy.

A new report from NBC News found that several AI-powered kids’ toys could easily be steered to dangerous as well as sexually explicit conversations in a shocking demonstration of the loose safety guardrails in this novel category of consumer electronics.

A report out by the Public Interest Research Group details what researchers found when they bought five AI-powered toys for kids on Amazon. Some of the toys offered instructions on where to find matches and how to start fires.

NBC News also bought some of these toys, and found they parroted Chinese government propaganda, and gave instructions for how to sharpen knives. Some of the toys also discussed inappropriate topics for kids like sexual kinks.

The novel category of AI-powered kids toys is under scrutiny as major AI companies like OpenAI have announced partnerships with toy manufacturers like Mattel(which has yet to release an AI-powered toy).

AI toys for kids talk about sex and issue Chinese Communist Party talking points, tests show

Jon Keegan1h

OpenAI releases GPT-5.2, the “best model yet for real-world, professional use”

After feeling the heat from Google’s recent launch of its powerful Gemini 3 model, OpenAI’s response to its “code red” has been released, reportedly on an accelerated schedule to keep up with the competition.

The company’s new flagship model GPT-5.2 is out, and the company is calling it “the most capable model series yet for professional knowledge work.”

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called it “smartest generally-available model in the world,” and shared benchmarks that showed it achieving higher scores than Gemini 3 Pro, and Anthopic’s Claude Opus 4.5 in some software engineering tests, abstract reasoning, math, and science problems.

In a press release announcing the new model, the company said:

“Overall, GPT‑5.2 brings significant improvements in general intelligence, long-context understanding, agentic tool-calling, and vision—making it better at executing complex, real-world tasks end-to-end than any previous model.”

Introducing GPT-5.2

In a press release announcing the new model, the company said:

Rani Molla3h

Google sinks on a string of bad news

Google is currently down nearly 2% amid a flurry of bad news for the tech giant:

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said Google’s much-touted Gemini 3 model “had less of an impact on our metrics than maybe we feared.”
Disney sent Google a cease and desist letter accusing it of infringing Disney’s copyrights after announcing a $1 billion investment in competitor OpenAI.
Waymo recalled basically all of its vehicles — 3,067 — for a software update to fix a high-profile problem they had with driving past stopped school buses.
The AI trade generally is struggling today after Oracle posted underwhelming earnings results yesterday.

Jon Keegan3h

Altman: Gemini 3 had less of an impact than we had feared

There have been a lot “code reds” flying around the AI world recently. But it turns out that the latest, declared by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, may not be as dire as expected.

This morning Altman appeared on CNBC with Disney CEO Bob Iger to discuss Disney’s $1 billion investment in OpenAI. Altman told CNBC that Google’s Gemini 3 has “had less of an impact on our metrics than maybe we feared.”