Electric vehicle sales to hit record this quarter as sun sets on tax credit

Electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 410,000 in the US this quarter — up more than 20% from Q3 2024, according to new estimates from Cox Automotive. That means EVs will make up a record share of the new car market, at 10% of sales.

Would-be EV buyers are pulling forward purchases in order to take advantage of the federal $7,500 tax credit, which ends this month. Of course, that likely means EV sales will soon fall off because of those who pulled their purchases forward.

“The federal tax credit was a key catalyst for EV adoption, and its expiration marks a pivotal moment,” Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox’s director of industry insights, said. “This shift will test whether the electric vehicle market is mature enough to thrive on its own fundamentals or still needs support to expand further.”

Cox also estimated that Tesla, which sells more EVs than any other manufacturer in the US by far, will see its third-quarter US sales decline about 6% year over year. The situation would be similar to the one in Europe, where EV sales rose 30% last month while Tesla’s sales declined 37%.

However, other estimates, including those from prominent Tesla analyst Troy Teslike, expect the company’s sales to rise about 15% to a record this quarter. Tesla’s stock, meanwhile, is on track for its best month since the election.

Tesla doesn’t break out vehicle deliveries by region, so both Cox and Teslike are using outside datasets to estimate their numbers. As far as total US deliveries in the third quarter, we’ll find out soon enough, as Tesla is expected to release those numbers early next month.