Dan Ives’ rosy predictions for Tesla
Wedbush Securities analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives is excited for the company’s new year and next decade. To demonstrate, Ives, who says he “never viewed Tesla simply as a car company,” published a series of characteristically bold predictions today. Here’s what he thinks.
Autonomous expectations:
Aggressive Robotaxi expansion across the US next year, reaching 30-plus cities.
Volume production of Cybercabs beginning in April or May, with full-scale production of autonomous vehicles and robotics ramping later in the year.
Tesla will command about 70% of the global autonomous market over the next decade (a view that differs from Morgan Stanley’s).
Full Self-Driving penetration could rise above 50% (up from 12% now), which Ives said would “change the financial model/margins” for Tesla.
Regulatory regression:
Federal regulatory barriers around FSD/autonomous driving will ease significantly under President Trump, according to Ives.
He expects an executive order in early 2026 that would shift more authority to federal regulators and reduce state-level control over autonomous driving rules.
Financial predictions:
With a current ~$1.4 trillion market cap, Tesla could reach $2 trillion within the next year, with a bull case of $3 trillion by end of 2026.
Ives reiterated his $600 price target and “outperform” rating.
In a bull case scenario, he sees Tesla, now around $465, at $800 within 12 to 18 months.
