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BIGGER NUMBER BETTER

Apple’s Services division and Meta’s Reality Labs are reminders of how dominant Big Tech really is

Both are mind-boggling, for different reasons.

This week, a number of Big Tech stocks reminded us just how dominant they really are. Yes, we used to balk at the thought of having a trillion-dollar company — now we have nine — but market valuations are only one way of contextualizing the sheer size of the BATMMAAN stocks.

Two divisions, both central to the future of their respective companies, Apple’s Services business and Meta’s Reality Labs division, offer another perspective.

Beyond the core

In its Q4 earnings, Apple revealed that, just as many reports had suggested, the latest AI-powered iPhone wasn’t proving as much of a pull for consumers as CEO Tim Cook would probably like, with sales down nearly 1% in its all-important holiday quarter. What is working at Apple, however, is its Services business, which clocked more than $26 billion in sales as the company topped 1 billion total subscriptions for things like Apple Music, TV+, iCloud, and more.

Apple Services
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To put that figure in context, if Apple’s Services division were a stand-alone business, let’s call it iServe, it would be the 37th-largest company in the S&P 500 Index by revenue. It would be more than double the size of Netflix or Uber. It would be more lucrative than consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble, larger than Disney, and would even outmatch Tesla in terms of pure revenue.

Perhaps most remarkable: it would be bigger than Coca-Cola and Nike combined.
Apple Services
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Now, moving on to Meta...

Reality check

Back in 2014, Facebook made its two largest acquisitions ever in just around a month’s time. The first was messaging giant WhatsApp, and the other was a small VR headset startup called Oculus. For the latter's potential to “create the most social platform ever,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg shelled out $2 billion.

That seemed like a lot of money at the time.

But since Facebook became Meta, Reality Labs, the augmented and virtual reality arm which expanded from Oculus, has lost the company a total of ~$60 billion since 2020.

To put that number in context, we’ll use Boeing, a company that’s been plagued by safety issues, union battles, scandals, and management change, and has reported six straight years of net losses. The sum total of those losses? A mere $35.7 billion — still 40% less cash than Reality Labs has burned through.

Reality Labs Losses
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Of course, Meta can afford to blow $60 billion on Reality Labs, as its “Family of Apps” division reported more than $260 billion in profit over the same period.

An obvious follow-up question: is Zuck’s “long-term investment” worth the burn? Well, on the plus side, Meta does continue to lead the VR/AR market with a 70% share, with the social media giant selling 3 million units of its latest Quest 3 through the first three quarters of the device’s launch, way ahead of Apple’s Vision Pro. 

Indeed, Meta’s leadership seems as keen as ever to pour cash into the business this year, with the company reportedly integrating Reality Labs more closely with its core functions and vowing 2025 will be “a pivotal year for the metaverse.” Meta is expected to spend $65 billion on capex in this year alone, thanks to the company’s cash-intensive AI ambitions.

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Elon Musk says Tesla Robotaxis are operating without drivers, sending stock higher

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla’s Robotaxis are now operating in Austin without a safety monitor. Tesla has been testing driverless cars in the area for about a month, and Musk had previously said the company would remove safety drivers by the end of 2025.

It’s unclear how many exactly of the roughly 50 Robotaxis the company operates in the area don’t have drivers. “Starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors, and the ratio will increase over time,” Tesla head of AI Ashok Elluswamy posted shortly after Musk. Ethan McKenna, the person behind Robotaxi Tracker, estimates it's two or three vehicles.

What is clear is that the move is good for Tesla’s stock, which is currently up 3.5%, extending its gains after Musk’s tweet. Morgan Stanley said yesterday that it considers the removal of safety drivers a “precursor to personal unsupervised FSD rollout.” Unsupervised FSD is widely considered to be integral to the would-be autonomous company’s value proposition.

At Davos earlier on Thursday, Musk said, "self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point."

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Survey: CEOs and workers have wildly different thoughts on AI productivity gains

One of the main reasons companies are rushing to adopt AI is to give their workers the miraculous productivity boost that AI companies have been promising — and believe will quickly earn back their investment.

But now that companies have been using AI for a while, a growing perception gap is emerging between the C-suite and their employees.

The Wall Street Journal reported on new findings by research firm Section, which surveyed 5,000 white-collar workers from companies with more than 1,000 employees.

More than 70% of the corporate executives in the survey said they were “excited” by AI, and 19% of them said the tools have saved them more than 12 hours of work per week.

But nonmanagement workers had a very different take on AI. Almost 70% of this group said AI made them feel “anxious or overwhelmed,” and 40% said the tools saved them no time at all.

The Wall Street Journal reported on new findings by research firm Section, which surveyed 5,000 white-collar workers from companies with more than 1,000 employees.

More than 70% of the corporate executives in the survey said they were “excited” by AI, and 19% of them said the tools have saved them more than 12 hours of work per week.

But nonmanagement workers had a very different take on AI. Almost 70% of this group said AI made them feel “anxious or overwhelmed,” and 40% said the tools saved them no time at all.

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Tesla jumps as Musk says he expects Optimus sales next year, European and Chinese FSD approval next month

Tesla CEO Elon Musk now says he thinks the company’s Optimus robots will be for sale to the public “by the end of next year.”

According to Musk, “That’s when we are confident that there is very high reliability, very high safety, and the range of functionality is also very high.”

Like many of Musk’s other timelines, that’s later than he previously predicted. In 2024, for example, Musk said the AI robots would be for sale in 2025.

Speaking with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink on a panel today at the World Economic Forum, Musk said the robots are currently doing “simple tasks” in Tesla factories, but believes “they’ll be doing more complex tasks and be deployed in an industrial environment” by the end of this year, before going on sale to the public in 2027.

Musk forecasts a future with “billions” of AI robots that “saturate all human needs.”

On a separate topic, Musk was bullish on regulatory approval for what Tesla calls Full Self-Driving technology in markets outside the US. “We hope to get supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a similar timing for China,” he said. Musk has said in the past that the pending regulatory approval for FSD in Europe is a key reason why Tesla’s sales in the region have been tanking.

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Waymo is now offering autonomous rides in Miami

Google subsidiary Waymo announced Thursday that it’s officially open for autonomous ride-hailing in Miami, expanding the company’s coverage area to six US cities. The company will be “inviting new riders on a rolling basis” to take rides across its 60-square-mile service area, which includes the Design District, Wynwood, Brickell, and Coral Gables. Waymo said it plans to expand to Miami International Airport “soon.”

Competitor Tesla currently operates a ride-hailing service with a safety monitor in the vehicle in Austin and the Bay Area.

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Apple to promote Siri from assistant to chatbot

Bloomberg reports that Apple plans to transform its Siri assistant into a full-fledged chatbot similar to OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

The chatbot would be integrated throughout the iPhone’s operating system rather than offered as a stand-alone app. It’s expected to arrive later this year and would be separate from more incremental, non-chatbot improvements to Siri rolling out in the coming months aimed at making the existing assistant more usable.

Both updates will be powered by Google’s AI models, Bloomberg reports, but the chatbot upgrade will be more advanced and akin to the much-lauded Gemini 3.

While the difference between an assistant and a chatbot may sound subtle, it represents a meaningful shift for Apple, which has long avoided a fully conversational interface and has lagged rivals that embraced one. Any new Siri chat capabilities could also eventually extend to other Apple devices under development, including wearables such as the pin Apple is developing.

Both updates will be powered by Google’s AI models, Bloomberg reports, but the chatbot upgrade will be more advanced and akin to the much-lauded Gemini 3.

While the difference between an assistant and a chatbot may sound subtle, it represents a meaningful shift for Apple, which has long avoided a fully conversational interface and has lagged rivals that embraced one. Any new Siri chat capabilities could also eventually extend to other Apple devices under development, including wearables such as the pin Apple is developing.

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