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Monday Jun.16, 2025

🙋 When is AGI coming? These experts say they know

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Hey Snackers,

Though AI automation is meant to save on labor costs, hailing a ride from a Waymo driverless car is actually five or six bucks more expensive than a ride from Lyft or Uber. During peak hours, Waymo’s average price spikes quite a lot more than a comparable Uber or Lyft trip in San Francisco. Looks like Waymo costs way-mo money! (OK, we stole that joke from Elon Musk.) 

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  • Which state did Americans visit the most last year?

Check your answer.

All right, so when are we really getting AGI?

The hot concept fueling the entire AI trade is the idea that eventually, somebody is going to achieve a somewhat nebulous state known as AGI, or artificial general intelligence. What precisely this means depends on a couple of things, but the most important one is, “How many billions of dollars did you convince this guy to give you and on what terms, precisely?” 

As a result, the definition of AGI depends on who’s selling the idea and who’s buying it. 

  • OpenAI’s charter defines it as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” 

  • Elon Musk says it’s AI that is “smarter than the smartest human.” 

  • Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei thinks AGI is more like a “country of geniuses in a datacenter.” 

Evocative stuff. 

But the main thing is that AGI — when a computer can complete most tasks a lot better than humans — is important because whoever gets that first (if ever!) is going to become unfathomably wealthy, as will all their investors, in the process of fundamentally reshaping the American economy with a piece of technology that can efficiently replace every knowledge worker in the country.

So, when exactly can we count on AGI? We made this handy chart for you to figure out what the finest minds in AI have to say about the timeline.

The Takeaway


The median AI honcho is looking at a timeline of two to three years before things get interesting, but it’s worth grokking just how big the range is. 

Read more.

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Stories We’re Watching

  • Congrats to 2025 grads... and condolences on the death of the entry-level job market. The unemployment rate for recent college grads rose to 5.8% in March, the highest level in nearly four years. But some grads are feeling the pain more than others, and anyone who ever doubted the ability of an arts major to get a job should take heed of this particular chart. 
    Is it all AI’s fault? Read more in our four-chart piece.

  • Ex (coffee) machina: Bucking the trend of using AI and automation to replace everything and everyone, Starbucks is going all in on real live human workers, crowning its first global barista champion last week as it pivots back to focusing on the “humanity of service.” CEO Brian Niccol announced that “the biggest human capital investment” is about to happen at Starbucks, exciting staff who’ve witnessed firsthand the decline of employees per store, easily seen here. 
    In any event, it will certainly help baristas muster what their new champion says is the first step in making a winning beverage.

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What Else We're Snackin'

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This Week's Events

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 Earnings expected from Lennar

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May retail sales and May industrial production

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Fed rate decision, May housing starts and building permits

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Markets closed in observance of Juneteenth

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May leading indicators. Earnings expected from Accenture, CarMax, Darden Restaurants, and Kroger

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