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Hey Snackers,
Sabrina Carpenter has been TikTok’s biggest artist in the US this year. Meanwhile, “espresso” was one of the UK’s most mispronounced words. That’s not me, ex-presso.
The S&P 500 surged to a record on Friday, posting its third straight week in the green, as investors digested a Goldilocks jobs report. Bitcoin’s also rallied on Friday, hovering around $101K.
💫 Quizney World: It’s the happiest place on earth, at least in this newsletter. Take the Snacks Seven quiz after trying the first q here:
What’s been the most-visited English article on Wikipedia this year? (Check your answer.)
Pharma rivals are piling into weight-loss meds as Americans double down
Pound for pound… Prescription fills for weight-loss drugs including Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly Zepbound have more than doubled this year in the US, according to GoodRx. Refills surged even as many Americans still lack insurance coverage for the injections, which cost an average of $1K a month out of pocket. Demand for weight-loss treatments has far outpaced supply with as many as 25K new people starting on the meds weekly.
Scale wars: Last week, Eli Lilly said its Zepbound injection helped patients lose about 20 pounds more than rival Wegovy after an 18-month trial with 751 participants.
Heavyweights: Analysts said Zepbound could become the best-selling drug of all time, with $27B in annual sales by 2030, while Wegovy’s expected to bring in nearly $19B.
The Ozempic effect… Drugmakers have raced to ramp up production after a two-year shortage of GLP-1 injections curbed supply. That dearth gave telehealth companies a chance to weigh in with copycats of blockbuster obesity drugs for around $200/month. Shares of Hims & Hers, which began offering compounded GLP-1s in May, have 3x’d this year. But in October the FDA said the shortage was over, which could suppress production of weight-loss dupes. Meantime, pharma pipelines are filled with weight drugs:
Heavy R&D: Novo Nordisk is testing an obesity pill that in an early trial beat its injectable drug Wegovy. Last month Amgen said its experimental drug MariTide helped patients shed up to 20% of their weight in a year.
Appetite’s growing… Demand for weight-loss meds doesn’t appear likely to ease up anytime soon: the market’s predicted to reach $150B by 2033. Last month the Biden admin proposed expanding Medicare and Medicaid coverage for weight-loss drugs. An estimated 93M Americans fit medical qualifications for the meds, but gov’t health plans cover just 52M. Big Pharma, which is lobbying for broader GLP-1 coverage, could influence how obesity is prioritized by the public-health system.
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1 The partnership relationship varies between companies and can include the following: inclusion on a preferred vendor list, invitations to participate in certain forums; listed on the other company's website, and introduction and networking opportunities.
Stories we’re watching
Inside man… POTUS-elect Trump last week nominated Paul Atkins — a pro-crypto lawyer on the advisory board of the Digital Chamber of Commerce — to serve as the next SEC boss. If confirmed by the Senate, Atkins would replace Gary Gensler, who led a crypto crackdown and is stepping down next month. Hours after Atkins’ nom, bitcoin passed a milestone of $100K for the first time. Digital currencies have rallied since last month’s US presidential election as investors expect a lighter regulatory touch under the new admin.
ChatGPT gets drafted… The Biden admin last month greenlighted AI’s use for national security, and tech companies have piled in. Since then, OpenAI partnered with defense contractor Anduril to upgrade drone systems, and Anthropic teamed up with Palantir on national-security cloud apps. Meta opened its AI model up for defense uses, and Nvidia pitched its tech to governments looking to build sovereign AI. Companies like Google have faced backlash for supplying their tech for national security. But as AI businesses burn billions, defense contracts may be a lucrative revenue stream.
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Coming up this week
At least the hot dog’s still a buck fifty… Costco will unload earnings after hiking its annual membership for the first time in seven years. In September, the basic membership rose by $5, to $65, while premium plans jumped by $10, to $130. The hikes, which Thursday’s earnings will reflect, could boost the retailers’ profit: half of Costco’s operating income comes from memberships. While the fee bumps could lead some customers to ditch, the lure of bulk bargains may be too strong. In North America, Costco has a membership-renewal rate of nearly 93%.
Next pizza 50 miles… Midwestern staple Casey’s General Stores, the US’s third-largest convenience chain, is expected to report a drop in gas sales but a spike in food sales. Casey’s strength doesn’t come from the pump but the kitchen: it operates the fifth-largest US pizza chain, and its za has garnered a cult following. Fuel efficiency and EVs have US gas volumes idling, so convenience chains like Wawa, Buc-ee’s, and 7-Eleven are investing in meal and bev offerings. Casey’s margin on grub is 6x its margins on fuel.
What else we’re Snackin’
Epic Games’ “Fortnite OG,” a new game mode that restores the original version of “Fortnite,” amassed a million players in its first 20 minutes.
Federal judges upheld legislation that could see TikTok banned in the US (where it has 170M users) if it isn’t sold by early January.
US employers added a solid 227K jobs last month, suggesting October’s low hiring #s were a blip caused by storms and strikes.
9 Days Left to Invest… Atombeam’s compaction technology is increasing machine bandwidth by up to 4x and over 7,500 investors are seizing the opportunity to invest in this AI upgrade. Don’t miss your chance.²
Snack Fact of the Day
Rome is believed to be the first city to reach a population of 1M
This Week
Monday: Green Monday. Earnings expected from Oracle, C3.ai, Rent the Runway, Casey’s General Stores, and Vail Resorts
Tuesday: International Human Rights Day. Earnings expected from GameStop, AutoZone, United Natural Foods, and Dave & Buster’s
Wednesday: Consumer price index. Earnings expected from Macy’s and Adobe
Thursday: Initial jobless claims. Producer price index. Earnings expected from Broadcom and Costco
Authors of this Snacks own bitcoin and shares of: Alphabet, Eli Lilly, and Nvidia
Advertiser's disclosures:
² This is a paid advertisement for Atombeam’s Regulation A+ Offering. This Reg. A+ offering is made available through StartEngine Primary, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. Please read the Offering Circular and related risks at Atombeam’s webpage on StartEngine before investing.
This was a paid for ad. Sherwood Media has been compensated for this ad by the Atombeam Reg A+ Campaign hosted on StartEngine.
In addition, as described in the Offering Circular, the Company retains the right to continue the offering beyond the Termination Date, in its sole discretion.
Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors because it is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. It should only be considered a long-term investment. You must be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are also highly illiquid, and there is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities.