__Looks like a seltzer...__ hits like a double espresso. __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP/)__ [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/01/pepsico-takes-550-million-stake-in-energy-drink-maker-celsius-.html) a $550M stake in trendy energy-drink maker __[Celsius Holdings](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CELH/)__ as part of a distribution deal. Celsius stock popped 11% after the Pepsi-vestment. Its stake equals about 7% of Celsius, which is now worth over $7B. The soda giant will help Celsius expand in retailers like gas stations and convenience stores, where the [bulk](https://www.investors.com/news/celsius-stock-jumps-after-pepsico-announces-550-million-stake-distribution-deal/) of energy drinks are sold.

- __Functionally fit:__ Celsius markets its sugar-free energy drinks as "healthy." Think: supplemental ingredients like ginger and green tea with no artificial preservatives. It [says](https://www.celsius.com/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_id=go_cmp-2036233644_adg-71976425036_ad-423732639773_kwd-3369406223_dev-c_ext-_prd-_mca-_sig-Cj0KCQjw852XBhC6ARIsAJsFPN167-gK3WeAKDgbZCdZBE8EEcD9i_4PWKWI7xmsqS3EOGfGKDc1DFIaAg3rEALw_wcB&maas=maas_adg_api_5554740490501_macro_1_1&ref_=aa_maas&aa_campaignid=2036233644&aa_adgroupid=71976425036&aa_creativeid=ad-423732639773_kwd-3369406223_dev-c_ext-&gclid=Cj0KCQjw852XBhC6ARIsAJsFPN167-gK3WeAKDgbZCdZBE8EEcD9i_4PWKWI7xmsqS3EOGfGKDc1DFIaAg3rEALw_wcB) its drinks are "clinically proven to accelerate your metabolism."
- __Gen Z-pleasing:__ Celsius has targeted young, on-the-go consumers with its sleek cans and flavors like "Sparkling Arctic Vibe" and "Peach Mango Green Tea."

__Pre-Zoom energy…__ Though founded in 2005, Celsius has seen explosive growth this year as young Americans seek energy boosts for __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ marathons, gym sessions, classes, and returning social events. In the first quarter, Celsius' US sales more than tripled to $123M. It’s not just Celsius: energy drinks have become one of the fastest-growing non-boozy bev categories. Blame long and irregular hybrid work hours, labor shortages, and (increasingly frequent) social obligations.

Functional bevs come for soda’s shelves (Jeffrey Greenberg/Getty Images)

Bubbly

__“Functional bevs” are the new sugar…__ As sodas continue declining, big bev companies have shifted investment to functional beverages — think: vitamin-packed energy drinks and enhanced waters with a “purpose” (besides just hydration or intoxication). Last year, __[Coke](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__ [splurged](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4xyYi2ejMbHgg4fwSZetyJ/articles/6hIGigM2hwMH2qNzt0yTve/) $5.6B for health-focused Gatorade rival BodyArmor. In 2020, Pepsi bought Rockstar Energy for nearly $4B and [launched](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/46KUPDxFhDhy8dxhA7DfbJ/articles/3XzeV4IkPMBxSbNmfG7y8n/) sleep-enhancement drink Driftwell. The global functional-bev market is [expected](https://foodinstitute.com/focus/functional-beverage-market-percolating/#:~:text=The%20global%20functional%20beverage%20market,reaching%20%24198.1%20billion%20by%202026.) to be worth nearly $200B by 2026.

Pepsi invests $550M in “healthy” energy-drink maker Celsius as functional beverages replace sugary sodas

__Oh Romeo, Romeo…__ where art thy batteries, Romeo? Yesterday, e-truck maker __[Nikola](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKLA)__ [agreed](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/01/nikola-nkla-to-acquire-romeo-power-rmo-.html) to buy battery biz __[Romeo Power](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RMO)__ for $144M. Romeo was worth $1.3B when it went public via a SPAC in 2020. But then it ran up $250M+ in losses, and recently warned investors it might soon run out of cash. 

- __Extra juice:__ Nikola, Romeo’s biggest customer, has agreed to give Romeo $35M in “interim funding” to keep making batteries as the deal closes. 
- __Bringing home the batts:__ Since Nikola needs so many batteries, it expects to save $350M over four years through its purchase. 
- __Not just Nikola:__ Other EV makers like __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM/)__, __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F/)__, __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA/)__, and __[Toyota](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TM/)__ are spending billions on battery factories with partners like __LG__ and __Panasonic__.

__A remarkable recharge…__ Not long ago, Nikola nearly ran out of juice itself. In 2020, Nikola’s ex-CEO resigned over fraud allegations (remember the infamous [truck rolling down a hill](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/nikola-admits-prototype-was-rolling-downhill-in-promotional-video/) commercial?). In the aftermath, Nikola’s billion-dollar GM partnership crumbled, and its shares have collapsed 90% from their 2020 peak. But last quarter Nikola shocked Wall Street by delivering its first trucks — and its first revenue. Now:

- __Nikola expects to ship at least 300 trucks__ by year’s end. Batteries are among the priciest and hardest-to-find EV components, so consistent access is key to scaling.

Sparks

__Batteries are the future of the electric economy…__ Take it from Elon: EV batteries [are](https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-elon-musk-energy-batteries-51657745667) the “new oil.” But like oil, they’re expensive — and scarce. That’s why Nikola splurged on its own battery biz, despite having only about $400M in cash on hand in March. It’s also why auto giants and EV suppliers have invested $30B in the US battery biz over the past two years, and why President Biden this year unveiled a $3B plan to boost battery-making. 

Electric-truck maker Nikola plans to buy battery biz Romeo to secure its supply chain on the cheap

Pepsi invests $550M in “healthy” energy-drink maker Celsius as functional bevs replace soda

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

Metaverse-related job openings plunged 81% from April to June as Meta, Google, and Apple rolled back meta-hiring

🥤 Pepsi chugs Celsius

__Choose your fighter…__ OG Word Doc on your hard drive vs. __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL/)__ Doc in the cloud. Amazon, __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT/)__, and Google control nearly two-thirds of all cloud spending (think: companies storing their data on other companies' servers vs. on-premises). They reported mixed results last week and have seen their stocks plunge this year as higher interest rates and slower ad spend hurt growth prospects. But cloud has been a silver lining. Last quarter:

- __Amazon’s__ AWS (the #1 cloud service) grew revenue by 33% to $19.7B, and accounted for *all* of the ‘Zon’s profits as its core shopping biz continued slowing. 
- __Microsoft’s__ Intelligent cloud revenue (which make up more than a third of its sales) grew 26% thanks to corporate customers like __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM/)__ and __[Kraft-Heinz](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KHC/)__.
- __Google’s__ cloud revenue climbed 35%, but the pace of growth slowed and the cloud division lost $858M. 

__Crank up the AWS storage…__ The pandemic drove massive corporate cloud spending as millions of Americans worked from home. Big companies leveraged their cash-flush coffers to quickly expand their cloud infrastructure to meet demand. The hot streak continued this year, with global enterprise cloud revenue up [34%](https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/huge-cloud-market-is-still-growing-at-34-per-year-amazon-microsoft-and-google-now-account-for-65-of-all-cloud-revenues#:~:text=New%20data%20from%20Synergy%20Research,the%2034%2D40%25%20range.) in the first quarter. But the boom might be slowing.

Big Tech has the cloud market on lock (Jeffrey Coolidge / Getty Images)

Cloudy

__Storm clouds may be brewing…__ Investors have looked to the cloud as a profit cushion for tech companies when ad sales and consumer demand slow. But recession fears, rising costs, and slowing growth could push companies to cut and reevaluate cloud spend to boost their own profit margins. Analysts expect cloud growth to slow by [half](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/people-will-freak-out-the-cloud-boom-is-coming-back-to-earth-and-that-could-be-scary-for-tech-stocks-11658423842) in the coming years. Still, cloud giants’ pricing power could allow them to raise costs to keep revenues afloat. In March, Google [hiked](https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/14/inflation-is-real-google-cloud-raises-its-storage-prices/) its cloud storage prices by as much as 50%.

Cloud helped super-charge tech profits during the pandemic — but recession belt- tightening could bring demand down to earth

__The latest national debate…__ “Recession or nah?” Last week, we learned that the US economy shrank for a second-straight quarter (aka: the common definition of a recession). But recessions are difficult to call, and are labeled retrospectively. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially determines recessions, is taking a more nuanced approach. While consumer sentiment is at a record low, the cooling job market is still fairly strong —  and most earnings so far have beat expectations. Still, [most](https://www.newsweek.com/us-recession-american-poll-economy-1724222) Americans think the US is already in a recession. 

__America’s hungry for chips…__ And it’s splurging to satisfy its craving. Last week, Congress [passed](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/china-competitiveness-and-chip-bill-passes-house-goes-to-biden.html) CHIPS-Plus, a bill to boost US chip production. The US has lost global chip-making market share in recent years: Taiwan’s __[TSMC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSM)__ makes 90% of the world’s advanced chips. Meanwhile, China plans to build 31 more chip factories by 2024. Foreign reliance worsened US supply shortages, since chips are key to everything from __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ cars to iPhones. CHIPS includes $52B in subsidies for US chip giants like __[Lattice](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LSCC)__, __[AMD](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMD)__, and __[ON](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ON)__ (which report this week). President Biden is expected to approve the bill within weeks.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

__Andy Grammer, live from the Greek…__ Earnings, live from the boardroom. Concert giant __[Live Nation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYV)__ reports Thursday. The Ticketmaster-owner had its best first quarter ever this year, as artists returned to fan-packed venues. Through April, Live Nation’s bookings were up 44% from *pre*-pandemic levels. In May, Live Nation anticipated a record year based on concert and festival ticket demand (think: Lollapalooza). But the average resale ticket price has soared [45%](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/30/inflation-at-its-worst-some-ticket-prices-are-up-as-much-as-100percent.html) since the start of the pandemic, when Live Nation’s biz was decimated. We’ll see if concert-flation hit – or helped – earnings. 

__Bye bye YOLO economy…__ People are feeling less lucky this year, and casino resort companies may take a hit. US casinos had their best year *ever* in 2021 as cooped-up consumers returned to spend their lockdown stimmy savings. Since then, inflation has soared and savings have dried up. Casino stocks have [lagged](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/17/casino-stocks-take-a-hit-as-inflation-rocks-economy.html) behind the S&P 500 this year. People are still visiting, but they’re not spending as much (less Blackjack, more all-you-can-eat buffet). We’ll see how the odds look when __[Caesar’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CZR)__ and __[MGM Resorts](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MGM)__ report this week.

Events

Coming up this week...

- __[Green](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7o6MiXoh575GLldhSJSmef/articles/4ZzLcQM4Z4lRI2FDkbcd1l/):__ Dems struck a surprise deal with Senator Manchin on a major climate and tax bill. The slimmed-down Build Back Better-esque proposal includes $60B for clean energy infrastructure and new tax credits for EV buyers. 
- __[Short](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5ckCeypI4HdqrSwbe8z6cV/articles/61coI1d0brQ4jbe8EgvCzZ/):__ __[Reckitt](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RBGLY)__ is cashing in on the national baby formula shortage. The Lysol-makers’ share of the US formula market has surged from 40% to 55%. Now, regulators may loosen rules to boost competition and production. 
- __[Glossy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2x4Y5iRWMumGD6ZA5ykik1/articles/1SWYiRpeeZAUl7RWl2MBh2/):__ Gen Z-fave cosmetics brand __Glossier__ will sell its products in Sephora’s stores and sites starting next year. A broader physical presence could be key to success as digi-storefronts get overcrowded.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

Cloud helped super-charge Big Tech profits, but recession fears could bring demand down to earth

The Mega Millions jackpot was won in Illinois at $1.3B and is the second-largest jackpot in the game’s 20-year history

☁️ Tech’s cloudy future

__Build Back Better is back…__ Well, almost. Yesterday Democratic Senator Joe Manchin [struck](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/climate/climate-change-deal-manchin.html) a surprise deal with Dems to support a climate and tax bill, reopening the door for some — but not all — of Biden’s agenda. Manchin initially opposed Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan on fears it would spike #flation, but says the new bill will do the opposite: 

- __The Inflation Reduction Act__ is tinier than Biden’s $2T+ proposal, which also covered education and health. But it aims to spend a record $369B on climate programs *and* reduce the deficit by $300B. How? By raising $739B in taxes, largely through a 15% minimum tax on mega-corporations. 
- __What’s included:__ $60B for clean energy infrastructure (think: wind turbines and EV factories), $60B for climate adaptation in hard-hit communities, and more. 
- __For consumers:__ The bill would extend the $7.5K tax credit for new EVs, and add new tax credits for home solar panels and used EVs.

__Renewed hope for renewables…__ In recent months, renewable companies’ earnings have been clouded by rising prices: the cost of key solar materials has nearly [tripled](https://fortune.com/2022/07/14/solar-projects-could-stop-polysilicon-prices/) from last January. But solar demand’s still strong, and this bill could boost green investment:

- __Sunny:__ Shares of solar companies like __[Enphase Energy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ENPH)__, __[First Solar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FSLR)__, __[Maxeon Solar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MAXN)__, __[Sunrun](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RUN)__, __[Sunnova](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NOVA)__, __[SunPower](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPWR)__, and __[SolarEdge](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SEDG)__ all surged yesterday.

Solar’s power hour (Paul Hennessy / Getty Images)

Green

__It’s a historic step for climate investment…__ But still just the beginning. Experts say the new climate bill could pass as early as next week, if it gets the support from all 50 Democratic Senators (wild-cards like Kyrsten Sinema could kill the deal). It’ll still take years for America to overhaul its old energy infrastructure, but certain companies and consumers may benefit right away.

A slimmer version of Biden’s Build Back Better bill is back on the table, lighting a path for solar companies

__Shoot your (multi-billion dollar) shot...__ __[Pfizer's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ sales hit a [record](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/pfizer-pfe-earnings-q2-2022.html) high last quarter, surging 27% from last year to nearly $28B. *More than half* of that revenue came from Covid shots or Covid treatments. Meanwhile, total profit ballooned 78% to nearly $10B.

- __Pfizer's Covid vax__ (still the most popular in the US [by far](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-people-additional-dose-totalpop)) brought in $8.8B in revenue. Compare that to __[J&J](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JNJ)__, which made just $544M from Covid vax sales last quarter.
- __Pfizer's antiviral pill__ Paxlovid, used to prevent severe sickness in high-risk Covid patients, brought in $8.1B. __[Merck](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRK)__ also reported strong growth yesterday, partly thanks to [$1.2B](https://www.investors.com/news/technology/merck-stock-merck-earnings-q2-2022/) in revenue from its Covid pill Lagevrio. Merck's total profit 3X'd from last year.
- __Still:__ Pharma stocks tumbled yesterday after Senate Dems reached a deal they say will lower prescription drug costs.

__Halloween and vaccines...__ If it seems like everyone’s getting Covid, that’s because the dominant BA.5 Omicron subvariant is more transmissible than past ones. As Covid resurges, the FDA has asked vaccine-makers to target dominant subvariants for a wave of fall boosters. Last month, Pfizer and its vax partner __[BioNTech](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BNTX)__ struck a $3.2B deal with the US gov't to deliver 105M doses ahead of an increasingly-likely fall vaccination campaign.

Vaxxing

__Out of mind ≠ out of sight…__ The pandemic used to dominate every headline and conversation. It isn’t monopolizing our daily lives like it was two years ago — from loosening restrictions to lessening news coverage. Still, the US is dealing with [130K](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-tally-us-cases-still-close-to-130000-a-day-as-death-toll-ticks-up-10-from-two-weeks-ago-2022-07-27) new daily Covid cases and a rising death toll. For reference: daily cases are at the [same](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-records/u-s-reports-130000-new-coronavirus-cases-fourth-straight-daily-record-idUSKBN27O03I) high level that they were in November 2020. Now, health officials worry that the US will face an even bigger wave when summer ends —  and vax-makers will be key to tackling it. 

Pfizer’s sales soar to a record, driven by vaccines and Covid pills as cases resurge

A slimmer version of Build Back Better is back, lighting a path for green energy companies

Nearly 90% of humans live in the Northern Hemisphere

☀️ Build back greener

__A dystopian formula for success…__ As US parents scramble to feed their kids amid an ongoing baby formula shortage, British health giant __[Reckitt](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RBGLY)__ is [raking](https://www.wsj.com/articles/enfamil-maker-reckitt-boosted-by-u-s-demand-for-infant-formula-11658918202?mod=business_lead_pos6) in cash. Lysol-maker Reckitt and three other companies — __[Abbott](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABT)__, __[Nestlé](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NSRGY)__, and __[Perrigo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PRGO)__ — produce 90% of US baby formula. Similac-maker Abbott (which also makes Covid tests) halted some formula production in February due to contamination, exacerbating supply shortages. 

- __Airlifted:__ To boost supplies last quarter, Reckitt increased US production and got temporary FDA approval to airlift formula from abroad. Cue: a boom in sales and profits. Yesterday Reckitt lifted its annual forecast, sending shares up 5%.
- __Less formula…__ more market control. Reckitt’s formula market share surged to 55% from 40% during the shortage, while Abbott’s plunged to 20% from 40%. 

__Food for thought…__ To ensure all US babies get enough nutrition, the formula biz is heavily regulated. But the federal program that subsidizes baby food — called Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) —  limits competition in the industry. That may have worsened the shortage.

- __WIC buys more than half__ of all US formula and then distributes it to low-income families. 
- __But WIC requires each state__ to choose just one supplier, giving formula giants big market share. Reckitt has WIC contracts in 10 states.

Empty formula shelves (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

Shortage

__Emergency responses could create permanent changes…__ Biden *temporarily* invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) to boost domestic formula production. The FDA also lifted limits on formula imports, temporarily allowing more foreign-made formula into the US. But some analysts expect the shortage to lead to reform of restrictive WIC rules, which could create more US formula competition — and shrink the big formula four's market share.

Reckitt’s sales are booming on the baby formula shortage, but more competition could be coming

__Eleven trading card…__ superpowers not included. Sports merch staple __Fanatics__ nabbed a deal with __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ to expand beyond athletics into pop culture. Now, Fanatics can sell everything from “Stranger Things” Hellfire t-shirts to demodog trading cards. Beyond Hawkins, Fanatics inked a merch deal with Legendary Entertainment for its “Dune” movie franchise. It’s a shift for the sports-centric brand:

- __The roster:__ Fanatics [pays](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7nJDYIh8RKeeUP9ZdU0AKT/articles/6IzOCzAlPLe9NQrfQqbzxX/) 300+ sports teams and brands for the right to sell their merch as an official partner. In January, the merch master [bought](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7nJDYIh8RKeeUP9ZdU0AKT/articles/6IzOCzAlPLe9NQrfQqbzxX/) trading card icon __Topps__ for a reported $500M to sell MLB, NBA, and NFL player cards. 
- __The $$:__ Fanatics' collectibles biz alone (think: signed Brady jerseys) is expected to top $1B in revenue this year, while its e-comm biz is projected to hit $4.5B in sales. 

__From trading cards to NFTs…__ Fanatics’ fanbase is expanding. In March, Fanatics launched zerocool, a premium trading card company that collabs with media and pop culture brands. Now, it’s using Netflix's 221M-strong subscriber base to diversify its portfolio. Netflix has its own low-key [merch](https://www.netflix.shop/collections/stranger-things) store, but now it’ll get exposure to Fanatic’s 80M customers. Demand is hot: __[Ebay](https://robinhood.com/stocks/EBAY/)__ sold 142% more trading cards in 2020 than in 2019.

Merch

__Fanatics is going wide to get far...__ It wants to be everyone's favorite merch company — and not just for sports lovers. That’s why Fanatics is planning more licensing deals with production studios, musicians, and even fashion brands. It’s not the only company going wide: yesterday, luxury reseller __[The RealReal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/REAL)__ expanded its fashion marketplace to include collectibles like trading cards and action figures. Going wide could be key to Fanatics' goal of becoming a $100B company over the next decade.

Sports merch giant Fanatics inks a “Stranger Things” deal with Netflix as it looks to Hollywood for growth

Reckitt’s sales are booming on the baby formula shortage, but competition could increase

The space economy grew to $469B last year, expanding at its fastest rate in nearly a decade

🍼 Reckitt’s formula boom

__Ignoring the leggings at the front...__ and beelining to the grocery aisles. __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT/)__ said that high fuel and food prices are causing Americans to cut back on discretionary spending (think: floral dresses, instant pots, decorative pillows). The consumer bellwether has been marking down the price of clothing and big-ticket items to help unload unsold inventory. Cue:

- __America’s largest retailer__ [slashed](https://www.wsj.com/articles/walmart-cuts-profit-outlook-as-it-lowers-prices-to-move-goods-11658781617) its annual profit forecast. While Walmart expects quarterly store sales will grow, the growth is coming from less profitable items like groceries.
- __Walmart stock dropped__ 8% yesterday. __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__, which reports tomorrow, dropped 5% as investors feared it may be experiencing a similar fate.

__Nuggets > new kicks...__ Big-ticket items like apparel and electronics typically have higher profit margins, but consumers are cutting spending in those categories to afford necessities like food and gas. Americans are also [trading down](https://www.wsj.com/articles/cheaper-beer-cigarettes-gain-favor-as-inflation-pinches-shoppers-11658655001?mod=article_inline) to cheaper beer brands (like: Busch Light vs. Corona) and discount cigarettes (like: Edgefield vs. Marlboro). But not every consumer staple is suffering:

- __[McDonald's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD/)__ [reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/26/mcdonalds-mcd-q2-2022-earnings-.html) expectation-beating profits yesterday as price hikes and value deals fueled same-store sales growth. The $2 breakfast's still going strong. 
- __[Coke](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO/)__ beat earnings expectations and [boosted](https://www.barrons.com/articles/coca-cola-earnings-stock-price-51658770567) its annual sales forecast thanks to price hikes and rebounding “away-from-home” soda sales (movie theaters, restaurants).

 It’s giving anti-inflation signals (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Pillows

__The “discretionary drop” is the 1st wave...__ of a recession, and a 2nd wave could follow. In a downturn, people usually forgo discretionary items like clothes before cutting back on necessities like groceries. Consumer sentiment hit a record low in June — problematic, since consumer spending makes up 70% of America’s economic output. Tomorrow’s second quarter GDP report will give us clearer insight into the “are we in a recession” question.

Walmart slashes prices and profit forecasts as Americans cut back on discretionary goodies like clothes

__Scooping up ultra lip balm…__ __Glossier’s__ taking its Zillennial-fave beauty products to Sephora in a major retail partnership starting next year. Glossier launched as a delivery-only beauty brand in 2014, and was last [valued](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4XhXFxZ9Jc6bcL9aMggLSr/articles/5jj0lR6LlNJitAc0Eqk9WF/) at $1.8B thanks to its Insta-friendly pink packaging and cult classics like “Boy Brow.”

- __Gloss on the go:__ Glossier products will be available at Sephora’s stores (and website) in the US and Canada, but it's TBD how many and where. (Fun fact: Glossier says it's one of the most searched for as-of-yet unavailable brands on Sephora’s site.)
- __Physical pivot:__ Glossier founder Emily Weiss [stepped](https://www.forbes.com/sites/madelinehalpert/2022/05/24/emily-weiss-steps-down-as-glossier-ceo-months-after-company-layoffs/?sh=6998e5702d80) down as CEO in May as the brand embarked on a "new chapter" to drive growth. Glossier [already](https://www.glossier.com/picks/retail-locations) has stores in London, Miami, LA, and Seattle, and plans to open more big city locations this year.

__Beauty counter binge…__ Glossier’s retail partnership comes as the return of IRL events ignites makeup demand. Last quarter, high-end cosmetics [topped](https://wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/beauty-features/beauty-sales-skyrocket-npd-high-income-spending-1235259818/) $2B in sales, with unit sales surpassing pre-pandemic levels. __[Estée Lauder](https://robinhood.com/stocks/EL)__ delivered double-digit sales growth last quarter, and the trend could continue: during economic downturns, shoppers are more likely to splurge on tiny pleasures like a $20 jelly-cream blush than a new Macbook (see: [the Lipstick index](https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/beauty/beauty-brands-prepare-recession/)).

Glossy

__The digi-storefront is packed…__ especially in the beauty space. That’s why digital-first beauty brands have increasingly been going physical. See: Kylie Cosmetics’ 2018 partnership with __[Ulta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ULTA/)__ and Rihanna’s __Fenty__ presence at Sephora. By having a physical presence at beauty go-to Sephora, Glossier can attract new customers and become more accessible to loyal fans.

Cosmetics unicorn Glossier nabs a major retail deal with Sephora as digi-storefronts get crowded

Walmart slashes prices and profit forecasts as Americans cut back on discretionary spending

After 20 years of cooperation with the US, Russia is pulling out of the International Space Station and will build its own

✂️ Walmart cuts prices

__Flea flicker...__ The NFL preseason kicks off on August 4, but the National Football League already has a few tricks up its sleeve. The NFL just [launched](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/25/national-football-leagues-new-streaming-service-nfl-launches-at-4point99-per-month.html) its own streaming service called (you guessed it) NFL+. The streamer will replace NFL Game Pass, and is available exclusively on smartphones and tablets (no streaming to TV). For $5/month, or $40/year:

- __On-the-move:__ NFL+ subscribers get access to all out-of-market preseason games. That perk was previously only available for $100/year through NFL Game Pass (RIP).
- __In-the-palm:__ Subscribers also get live streaming access to regular and postseason local and prime-time games. Previously, that was free through the __[Yahoo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YAHOY/)__ Sports app and the NFL mobile app (womp).
- __Not included yet:__ Exclusive regular-season games. Nationally televised games like the preseason kick off between the Raiders and the Jaguars won’t be featured.

__Perfect spiral...__ into sports streaming. The NFL is the [last](https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/25/nfl-streaming-service-launches-in-the-u-s-replacing-nfl-game-pass/) of the major sports leagues to add streaming to its playbook: the NBA, MLB, and NHL already offer streamers that feature games outside of viewers' broadcast regions. Streaming provides an opportunity for the NFL to rake in extra $$ as cord-cutting continues, especially among Gen Z’ers. But NFL+ is way more limited than other major sports streamers — possibly because the NFL doesn’t actually *need* streaming.

Kicking off on the small screen (John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

__The NFL is cable’s lifeline…__ For the NFL, streaming is a bonus — like a post-touchdown extra point, it’s a nice-to-have. For cable, the NFL *is* a necessity: the NFL is one of the biggest viewership drivers for the traditional TV industry, and is still thriving on air. Last year, the NFL attracted its [highest](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/25/media/nfl-plus-streaming-service/index.html) regular season viewership average since 2015. Average viewers jumped 10% from 2020 to 17M/game. Also last year: the NFL sealed a 10-year deal with its TV partners that’s worth $100B+.

The NFL is the last major sports league to launch its own streamer, but its heart is still in cable

__Doomed by the dollar…__ The US dollar is so strong that it's [hurting](https://www.ft.com/content/6d06181f-d0e0-4c5a-bcfd-8bda44cc31a2) earnings for US corporate giants that do business abroad. The USD’s value is at its highest in 20 years: even the euro was worth [less](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/SkTOGg1xV6SnxVuVYutGu/articles/3nLZFQn0R9td4zOyIrCM0z/) than the greenback this month for the first time in decades. Global investors have [gained](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/SkTOGg1xV6SnxVuVYutGu/articles/3nLZFQn0R9td4zOyIrCM0z/) more confidence in the dollar relative to other currencies (high interest rates are [one reason](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/SkTOGg1xV6SnxVuVYutGu/articles/3nLZFQn0R9td4zOyIrCM0z/)). 

- __It’s good for US tourists spending abroad…__ but bad for US corporations earning abroad. S&P 500 businesses earned 29% of their sales abroad last year — and now, those earnings are in foreign currencies that are worth less than before.
- __[IBM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/IBM), [Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX), [J&J](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JNJ),__ and __[Philip Morris](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PM)__ reported a combined billions of dollars in lost earnings last quarter courtesy of the strong dollar. Think: selling the same amount of software in Japan, but in return for fewer dollars (after conversion). 

__Foreign exchange…__ weighs more heavily on certain industries. The appreciating dollar hits Big Tech hard, since tech giants in the S&P 500 earn 59% of their revenue abroad — twice the S&P’s overall average. We’ll see the damage when multinationals like __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__, __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__, and __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ report this week.

Problem$

__The buck hasn’t stopped…__ Since the dollar’s expected to keep rising for months, experts predict S&P 500 companies will lose $100B in earnings this year (i.e. 5% less earnings growth). Shares of globally exposed US companies have already [fallen](https://www.ft.com/content/6d06181f-d0e0-4c5a-bcfd-8bda44cc31a2) more than twice as much as their US-centric peers this year. IBM expects a $3.5B dollar-driven dip in sales, and Apple could also take a big hit since nearly two-thirds of its sales come from outside the US.

The strong dollar has led to billions in lost corporate earnings, and could spell trouble for Big Tech

The NFL is the last major sports league to launch a streamer, but its heart is still in cable

Jordan Peele’s *Nope* had the biggest original film debut since 2019, though it grossed less than expected at $44M

🏈 NFL streaming play

__When $6/gallon sounds like a steal...__ you know the pump anxiety is real. US fuel producers are on track to rake in record cash windfalls. The largest independent oil refiners — __[Valero](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VLO)__, __[Marathon Petroleum](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MPC)__, and __[Phillips 66](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PSX)__ — are [poised](https://www.wsj.com/articles/refiners-rake-in-cash-after-gas-prices-surge-11658405412?mod=business_lead_pos2) to collectively make $14B from refining this quarter. Oil biggies like Valero start reporting this week, and the expected profit margins are wild:

- __[Exxon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XOM),__ which reports Friday, said its fuel profits could balloon to $4.4B. Compare that to an average profit of less than $860M for the same quarter from 2017 to 2019. Thanks to fuel prices, Exxon forecasts that total earnings could hit $18B — which would be its most profitable quarter in decades.
- __[Chevron](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVX/),__ which also reports Friday, is expected to have profit nearly [triple](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/here-is-what-to-know-beyond-why-chevron-corporation-cvx-is-a-trending-stock-0) from the year-ago quarter. In the first quarter, its earnings more than *quadrupled*.

__But oily profit could be peaking...__ or may’ve already peaked. Summer is usually a busy driving season, but jaw-dropping gas prices are starting to keep Americans off the road. Drivers pumped 10% less fuel in the week ended July 9 compared to last year. Meanwhile, refineries are cranking at full capacity. 

- __Less demand + more gas supply =__ shrinking profits for gas giants. Case in point: gas prices have [dropped](https://www.vox.com/2022/7/22/23271456/gas-prices-falling-inflation) for 30 days straight. 
- __Everything’s relative.__ Since refining capacity was drastically slashed mid-pandemic, inventories are still relatively low, and prices are still relatively high. 

The end of oil’s golden age? (Barry Lewis/InPictures via Getty Images)

Pumped

__A recession could tank gas prices…__ And if the US isn’t already in one, it likely will be soon. Higher supply and lower demand are already pushing down gas prices — but a recession could tank them. Oil fuels the wheels of economic activity, and suffers when it slows: an economic downturn means less traveling, less spending, and less manufacturing. But for this year at least, refiners are on track for some banner profits.

From Exxon to Valero, oil big shots are expected to rake in historically huge profits — but the gassy golden age may be over

__Goodbye, my coin…__ Last year Elon claimed Tesla had “[diamond hands](https://decrypt.co/71398/elon-musk-tweets-that-tesla-has-diamond-hands-cushioning-bitcoin-slide)” for __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC/)__. Turns out Tesla sold [75%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-20/tesla-converted-about-75-of-bitcoin-purchases-to-fiat-currency) of its bitcoin (worth $936M) as of last quarter. On last week's earnings call, Musk said Covid crackdowns in China forced Tesla’s (apparently paper) hand since it needed cash. BTC's price has plunged since Tesla bought $1.5B worth last year, but the company says it sold at a gain. The EV icon stopped accepting bitcoin as payment last year. Its unloading of the OG crypto could signal an end to Musk's days as a crypto hype man.

__Asada bowl, extra guac…__ and a side of organized labor. Last week __[Chipotle](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CMG)__ [closed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/20/business/economy/chipotle-union-maine.html) a store in Maine after workers filed to form what could’ve been the chain’s first union. Owners cited staffing issues, but workers called it union backlash. It’s not just Chipotle: US labor organizing is rising, and 200 __[Starbucks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SBUX)__ have unionized since last fall. This year, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ and __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ workers also formed their companies’ first US unions. Union membership has declined for years, but support for unions is near record highs — which could lead to higher costs and more friction for companies.

__Less money...__ still problems. __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT/)__, __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__, __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__, and Apple are on deck to report this week. With recent layoffs and hiring freezes top of mind, investors expect second-quarter earnings to be tough for some — but not all — of tech’s major players. Analysts predict rougher #'s from Google and Meta as recession fears shrink advertising budgets. Meanwhile, Apple seems to be weathering the economic storm, expecting to report double-digit growth despite supply snags. Investors are optimistic about Microsoft's booming cloud biz. 

__Power to the Powell…__ To tame prices, the Fed hiked interest rates by an unexpectedly high 0.75 percentage point last month — the biggest jump since the ’90s. On Wednesday, America’s central bank is expected to [dish](https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-preparing-to-lift-interest-rates-by-another-0-75-percentage-point-11658068201) out another three-quarter-point hike. Some analysts [say](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/powell-says-the-fed-could-hike-rates-by-0point75-percentage-point-again-in-july.html) it should be *more* aggressive and raise rates by a full point. Last week, Europe’s central bank hiked rates for the first time in 11 years (’flation’s even worse there). But moving too fast could trigger (or deepen) a recession by slowing spending, investment, and hiring. 

- __[Doc](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2wPRmRTzXsZZPrXKhazVKD/articles/nQq3OLSTUFZH7JZu72XYC/):__ Amazon agreed to buy swanky healthcare provider One Medical for nearly $4B, its third-largest deal after Whole Foods ($14B) and MGM ($9B). It’s trying to Prime-ify the convoluted healthcare biz. 
- __[Tab](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1svYxMtYC770D5o9qhKY30/articles/2qUpX8oEROIU32C7WYBAqH/):__ After a decade as a mobile-only app, Snap launched a desktop version to tap into the “side-tab economy” (think: shopping and scrolling mid-__[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ call). That could help it compete with __TikTok__ and Insta. 
- __[Fazed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5e5VqCskUQCsirR37ADYC6/articles/1JqdXLEbwqdapfKTXeb7Yd/):__ Viral gaming brand __[FaZe Clan](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FAZE)__ went public through a $725M SPAC merger. It’s a milestone for the creator economy, but FaZe’s 500M-strong following may not protect it against the SPAC-pocalypse.

From Exxon to Valero, oil giants are expecting historic profits — but they may’ve peaked

Humans’ ability to smell geosmin (the scent of wet earth after rain) is more powerful than sharks’ ability to smell blood in water

⛽ Oil’s profit peak

__Now available on Prime…__ colonoscopy appointments. Yesterday, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/21/amazon-to-buy-primary-health-care-provider-one-medical-for-roughly-3point9-billion.html) it agreed to buy membership-based healthcare provider __One Medical__ for nearly $4B. It’s the Zon’s third-largest deal ever, after Whole Foods ($14B) and MGM ($9B). One Med, whose stock rose 60%+ yesterday, is a key partner for Amazon as it expands into healthcare:

- __Convenient:__ One Med offers patients 24/7 virtual and IRL care at its 200 swanky clinics through a sleek app. Think: tele-prescriptions and same-day app-scheduled visits. 
- __Subscription:__ Patients pay $200/year just for membership, on top of normal care costs, which can be paid through insurance or out of pocket.
- __Techy:__ Amazon wants to leverage One Med’s tech and network of nearly 800K members to “reinvent” healthcare (imagine: Alexa-powered checkups and Prime pill pickup). 
- The Zon’s given few details about how One Med fits into its plans, but said the current CEO will stay in place.

__Dr. Alexa just finished med school…__ but Amazon’s been quietly pushing into healthcare for years. The ecomm giant bought the online pharmacy PillPack for $750M in 2018 and used it to launch its own online pharmacy in 2020 (Prime members get free shipping). In 2019, the Zon launched a telehealth service for employees called Amazon Care. Last year, Amazon Care opened its service to US employers.

Amazon’s latest stab at healthcare (Thiago Prudencio/Getty Images)

Disrupt

__Healthcare’s about to get Prime-ified…__ Amazon’s already disrupted shopping, groceries, and movie streaming. Now it plans to disrupt the convoluted healthcare biz, which it said needs “reinvention.” The Zon tried to launch a healthcare biz called Haven in 2018 with __[Berkshire Hathaway](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BRK.A)__ and __[JPMorgan](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM)__, but it flopped because of a lack of healthcare experience, limited reach, and competing interests. This time around, Amazon may be more likely to succeed thanks to One Med’s know-how, streamlined strategy, and roster of 8K+ business clients.

Amazon buys swanky clinic chain One Medical for $4B in its quest to Prime-ify healthcare

__Checking Elon’s W-2…__ Over the past three years, top public companies reported paying [$2.1B](https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-swallow-2-1-billion-in-taxes-as-executive-pay-climbs-11658395981?mod=business_lead_pos5) in taxes to cover executive pay (up more than 4X from 2019). Typically, corporations can deduct worker pay as a business expense when filing their taxes. For decades, companies could write off multimillion-dollar paychecks for high-performing, high-earning execs (and save on taxes). But the [2017 tax overhaul](https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2017/11/07/tax-reform-and-executive-compensation/) forced companies to pay the 21% corporate tax rate on all paychecks over $1M. Now companies are paying big bills on their execs’ big paydays:

- __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA/)__ spent $447M on exec pay taxes over three years. Elon’s total comp: [$2.1B](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3593297-elon-musk-qualifies-for-another-2_1b-payday).
- __[Lennar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LEN):__ The homebuilding behemoth racked up a $29M exec pay tax bill last year. 
- __[Howmet Aerospace](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HWM):__ The jet-engine giant has paid $21.5M in exec pay taxes since 2019.

__Payday…__ Corporate tax liabilities haven't stopped exec pay from swelling. Last year, CEOs of S&P 500 companies [earned](https://www.fastcompany.com/90770163/the-age-of-greedflation-is-here-see-how-obscene-ceo-to-worker-pay-ratios-are-right-now) $18.3M in compensation (think: salary, bonuses, stock) on average — 324X more than average workers. And while typical worker pay ticked up 5% (behind inflation), CEO pay [jumped](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ceo-pay-rose-18-percent-while-worker-wages-trailed-inflation/) 18%.

__Paychecks are only part of the payday…__ About [83%](https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-in-2020/#:~:text=The%20composition%20of%20CEO%20compensation%20is%20shifting%20away%20from%20the,of%20average%20realized%20CEO%20compensation.) of big CEOs’ comp comes from stock awards. While legislators expect the new tax rule will raise $9.2B in revenue over a decade, not much has been done to address the fact that the [wealthy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1ExFruUiLLc3sM39AgchDw/articles/28rBswpihWiU8dO8VwzWyB/) often pay little to no income taxes compared to their net worth. Because while income is taxed, net worth isn't. 

Companies are paying billions in taxes on record-high exec paychecks — but it’s the tip of the compensation iceberg

Amazon buys swanky clinic chain One Medical for $4B in its quest to disrupt healthcare

The monarch butterfly is now endangered, with its population declining as much as 72% in the past decade

🩺 Amazon’s big health bet

__Buying your dream house…__ is becoming a nightmare. Demand for mortgages [hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/mortgage-demand-drops-to-lowest-level-in-22-years.html) a 22-year low last week, as more would-be buyers got squeezed out of a pricey market. Home sales have fallen for five months straight, as prospective buyers deal with a triple whammy of challenges:

- __Ceiling costs:__ The median price for an existing home hit a record $416K in June. Blame low inventory. 
- __Roof rates:__ The cost of borrowing $$ for a mortgage has nearly doubled this year as the Fed hikes interest rates. 
- __Crowded lawns:__ The average house is on the market for just 14 days before it’s sold, the shortest cycle on record. 

__Not keeping up…__ Median incomes in the US have increased 14X since 1960 — but median home prices have soared *36X*. The housing-affordability crisis accelerated during the pandemic as buyers ditch city rent for suburban mortgages — and priced out locals. And it’s getting worse:

- __Long road:__ By the end of this year, it’ll take 11+ years for a first-time buyer with median income to save for a 10% down payment. Pre-pandemic, it took half as long.
- __Broken system:__ The average US worker needs to pay about a third of their income to afford a median-priced home — the highest level since the ’07 housing bubble.

Outpriced in suburbia (Thomas Northcut/Getty Images)

Escrow

__The picket fence is out of reach…__ Homeownership was once a cornerstone of the American dream; now it’s becoming inaccessible for average families. Homes became less affordable in 97% of the US last quarter (FYI: last month rent also jumped at its fastest pace since 1986). And while housing inventory is expected to increase in the coming months, experts say 60% of Americans won’t be able to afford starter homes through 2025, especially those in communities of color.

Home sales have boomed during the pandemic, but now a brutal market is making the American dream distant for most

__FaZe SPAC...__ Gaming influencers just took themselves public. __[FaZe Clan](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FAZE)__ launched as a gaming YouTube channel in 2010. Think: mostly guys in gaming chairs posting “Call of Duty” "sniping" videos. Today, FaZe is an esports and media company with 93 members (including Snoop Dogg). In May, Forbes [ranked](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettknight/2022/05/06/the-most-valuable-esports-companies-2022/?sh=7c9ed67d599f) it the fourth-most-valuable esports company. Yesterday:

- __FaZe went public on the Nasdaq__ after [completing](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/faze-clan-goes-public-in-725-million-spac-a-deal-for-creator-economy.html) a $725M merger with a SPAC (aka: special purpose acquisition company) called "B Riley Principal 150 Merger Corp." — claaaassic SPAC name.
- __The debut is a milestone for "creator economy"__ brands, most of which are private. FaZe has 500M followers across socials like YouTube, Twitch, and __TikTok__.
- __Fazed:__ Despite its viral clout, FaZe stock plunged 24% on its first trading day. FYI: it was planning to go public last year in a $1B deal, but that didn’t pan out.

__Unique timing…__ FaZe’s debut comes at a time when public offerings and SPACs have been struggling. Given the inauspicious macro environment, many planned SPAC deals have been canceled or put on ice. SPACs [boomed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2miYQo5VvBqToiUH0v2lTP/articles/147BXMVnvTG2cNtnGXSgCE/) mid-pandemic, accounting for ~70% of all IPOs last year. __[DraftKings](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DKNG)__, __[Virgin Galactic](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPCE)__, and __[Opendoor](https://robinhood.com/stocks/OPEN)__ are just a few that went public through a SPAC. Now, the oversaturated market has lost steam and is riddled with losses.

Fazed

__Followers ≠ investors…__ FaZe calls itself the “first creator-based brand to go public,” but its impressive following may not be enough to lure investors. While it’s forecasting that revenue will nearly double this year to $90M, FaZe also expects a widening loss of $19M. In this unsteady environment, some investors have ditched “growth stocks” in favor of companies with steady profits. Companies that merged with SPACs [lost](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/spacs-wipe-out-half-of-their-value-as-investors-lose-appetite-for-risky-growth-stocks.html) half their value in the first six months of this year.

Viral gaming brand FaZe Clan goes public, but its 500M-strong following may not shield it from the SPAC-pocalypse

Mortgage demand falls to a 20-year low as a brutal housing market prices out many Americans

Minimum-wage workers in the US are earnings less now than they were 60 years ago (after adjusting for inflation)

🏠 Housing hits a wall

__All dried up…__ Europe’s at the boiling point of an epic energy crisis as political tensions and record heat waves ripple through the continent. This week, Russia’s __Gazprom__ (the [biggest](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/082615/5-biggest-russian-natural-gas-companies.asp) natural-gas company by sales) halted exports to three major European customers citing force majeure — a stoppage for extraordinary circumstances. Europeans aren’t buying it:

- __Hot air:__ __Uniper__, Germany's largest gas importer, said the halt was “unjustified” (read: Gazprom has gas to spare). Uniper’s already tapped a $2B credit line and drawn down winter reserves to keep Germany’s gas-fueled electricity and A/C flowing.
- __Heat-pocalypse:__ Yesterday, the UK had its [hottest](https://www.npr.org/2022/07/19/1112220447/britons-awake-from-their-warmest-ever-night-and-brace-for-record-smashing-heat) day ever recorded, while the Netherlands had record July temps and France sent out extreme-heat warnings.

__Pipe problems…__ Russia [supplies](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6oUasks4UHzb87QXAq6Z3b/) nearly half of the EU’s natural gas. Problem: over the past month, Gazprom’s [cut](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-declares-force-majeure-gas-supplies-europe-2022-07-18/) its export capacity to 40%. The Nord Stream pipeline (the main connection between Germany and Russia) closed last week for an annual maintenance check. But Europeans worry that the force majeure signals Russia won't reopen its taps by tomorrow’s deadline. And Europe’s gas prices are already up 8X from a year ago.

Energy in crisis (Nikolay Doychinov/AFP via Getty Images)

Pump

__Europe’s crisis could be a global disaster…__ This year, Europe has [surpassed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/europe-becomes-top-market-for-us-crude-as-war-upends-trade) Asia as the top importer of US oil for the first time since 2016 (because it’s getting *way* less gas from Russia). But US production isn’t growing fast enough to meet the needs of both continents and its own. Eventually, the energy crisis could cost European taxpayers [$200B](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-18/europe-energy-crisis-bailout-will-top-200-billion-if-russia-cuts-gas-supply) through higher energy bills and higher taxes. Globally, a tighter gas market could trigger more inflation, hurt economic output, and fuel a recession.

Europe’s energy crisis could get a lot worse as Russia’s gas-withholding moves threaten the global economy

__"Amaaazing quality, feels like silk"...__ probably a review for that paper-thin polyester __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ PJ. More than a third of Amazon reviews are [estimated](https://www.ngpf.org/blog/question-of-the-day/qod-what-percent-of-reviews-posted-on-popular-e-commerce-sites-are-fake/#:~:text=About%2042%25%20of%20720%20million,millions%20of%20virus%2Davoiding%20shoppers.) to be fake or unreliable. Now the Zon is taking legal action to crack down on fake five-stars: yesterday, Amazon [filed](https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/18/amazon-lawsuit-fake-reviews-facebook/) a suit against administrators of 10K+ Facebook groups it accuses of brokering bogus reviews in exchange for money or free stuff.

- __Admins of one group__ are accused of [charging](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/amazon-sues-facebook-group-administrators-over-fake-reviews.html) Amazon sellers $10 for each good review. Another group, "Amazon Product Review," amassed 43K+ members before being removed.
- __Many of the groups__ are private, and posters try to evade moderators by omitting letters (think: “R*fund Aftr R*vew.”)
- __Amazon wants the groups to shut down__ and return their “ill-gotten gains.” Facebook owner __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META/)__ has removed half of the groups reported — and is investigating others.

__Bluetooth headphones and supplements...__ some of the hardest-hit [categories](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/how-merchants-secretly-use-facebook-to-flood-amazon-with-fake-reviews/2018/04/23/5dad1e30-4392-11e8-8569-26fda6b404c7_story.html) for fake reviews. Phony write-ups have become a growing headache for Amazon, whose marketplace now includes millions of third-party sellers. It's not just a Facebook problem: illicit review communities have thrived on social apps like WhatsApp, __Telegram__, and WeChat.

- __Moderate:__ Amazon has said that it uses a mix of AI and human moderators to hunt fake reviews, and has reported thousands of groups to social companies.
- __Spiral:__ Still, thousands of bogus reviews keep cropping up across the Zon’s massive storefront — and sneaky sellers and review brokers are cashing in.

Phony

__Phoniness is a trust-killer…__ Amazon isn’t the only one plagued by the fake-review biz: __[Yelp](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YELP)__, __[TripAdvisor](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TRIP)__, and __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ [have](https://uberall.com/en-us/resources/blog/how-big-a-problem-are-fake-reviews) the same problem (see: [non-existent](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqPARIKHbN8) restaurant hits #1 on TripAdvisor). Five-star reviews might be the reason you spend your hard-earned money on something. Misleading reviews could cause you to lose trust in a platform, threatening review-reliant businesses like Amazon.

Amazon sues 10K Facebook groups over brokering fake reviews, as phony five-star operations erode customer trust

Europe’s energy crisis could get worse as Russia’s gas-withholding moves threaten the economy

Use of private jets is more popular than ever, with first-time buyers driving record sales