__Let it flow…__ The White House is heading back to the country’s emergency oil stockpile, in a push to pump the brakes on soaring gas prices that have Americans fuming (FYI: it’s an election year). President Biden [authorized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-business-europe-3e1808077371b88ae043c86584763afd) tapping 1M barrels/day from the strategic petroleum reserve for six months (total: 180M barrels). It’s the largest release ever, and the third time the SPR has been tapped in the last six months. Refresher:

- __Sweet:__ Just like Canada keeps a strategic maple syrup reserve (#[priorities](https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/oddly-enough/quebec-unlocks-worlds-only-maple-syrup-strategic-reserve-keep-pancake-lovers-2021-12-07)), the US [has](https://www.energy.gov/fecm/strategic-petroleum-reserve-4) four underground sites along the Gulf Coast with capacity to store 700M+ barrels of oil. 
- __Sour:__ The SPR was created in 1975, during another global oil crisis. Presidents have hit up the SPR a couple [dozen](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/when-have-united-states-others-previously-released-oil-reserves-2021-11-23/) times since then, mostly after supply-disrupting events like hurricanes or war. 

__Insatiable appetite…__ The US consumes 20M barrels of oil every day. Adding 1M barrels to the daily supply could lower crude prices, which would trickle down to the pump. But it’s not a sure bet: oil prices are set on complex global futures markets, and many analysts [expect](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-31/what-a-sizable-u-s-oil-release-may-mean-for-energy-markets?sref=px9VEDa6) any dips to be temporary. When Biden last released 50M barrels from the SPR, it barely budged the price of crude. Tapping it again could bring short-term relief to consumers, which could help Dems in November.

__Oil doesn’t grow on trees…__ While Russia’s war in Ukraine is aggravating the oil crunch, oil anxiety started early in the pandemic when demand collapsed, driving down prices. US oil producers got burned and have exercised restraint ever since, pressured by investors to maintain “[capital discipline](https://www.axios.com/wall-street-oil-execs-a3cdaa1b-6839-448c-a5fb-2697b0a0c77b.html)” (read: drill less, reinvest more). Surging prices give oil companies an incentive to drill more. But drillers are still reluctant, and would take months to ramp up.

Biden is ordering the largest-ever release from the US’ oil stockpile, but Pump Anxiety relief might be limited

__Life is a highway...__ or a race track. NASCAR driver Ricky Bobby hated Formula 1 in “Talladega Nights,” but Americans are loving it. That's why F1 just [added](https://apnews.com/article/sports-las-vegas-united-states-north-america-formula-one-f37caf2fea9e83ad17efbcc7115007f8) a race in Vegas that’ll debut in November 2023.

- __Fast:__ The 3.8-mile street course will run along the Vegas Strip, passing landmarks like Caesars Palace and the Bellagio Fountain (top speed: 212 mph).
- __Furious:__ Vegas will be F1’s third race in the US — that’s [more](https://huddleup.substack.com/p/formula-1-is-headed-to-the-las-vegas-0a4?s=r) F1 races than any other country. F1's other US Grand Prix's are in Austin and Miami.
- __Too fast, too furious:__ F1′s first race in Miami this May sold out in a day. The GP in Austin last year had 400K+ fans — the most-attended race in F1's 70-year history.

__NASCAR has #StreamEnvy…__ so does IndyCar. The US has become F1's fastest-growing market, largely thanks to __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__. Interest in F1 has soared since Netflix's docuseries “F1: Drive to Survive” premiered in 2019.

- __Rewind to 2016:__ __[Liberty Media](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FWONK)__, the public company that owns the Atlanta Braves and SiriusXM, bought Formula 1 for $4.4B.
- __Back then,__ F1 had 100M global viewers per race — but US interest was weak, F1 was under-monetized, and fans skewed older.
- __New strategy:__ Slick [marketing](https://motorsports.nbcsports.com/2022/03/31/f1-three-races-america-2023-las-vegas-austin-miami/) with a focus on young Americans boosted F1’s US fanbase and made it the fastest-growing major sport on social media.

Vroom

__If you wanna go big, go broad…__ F1 used to be seen as a Euro-centric luxury sport for the wealthy (think: Rolex ads, races in Monaco). But one Netflix series and a strategy shift later, F1 fans are [younger](https://uk.motor1.com/news/542371/formula1-study-fans-younger-diverse/) and more diverse (average age: 32). By focusing on US expansion, Liberty Media is accessing an economy that’s 6-7X larger than any European country. And Liberty’s Formula One Series C shares are up 60% in the past year.

Formula 1 racing is gaining major US traction thanks to Netflix, Vegas, and younger marketing

Biden taps strategic oil reserves to bring down gas prices, but relief might be capped

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

Turning red over gas prices (Robert Gauthier/LA Times via Getty Images)

A fifth of US workers say they’re running out of money between paychecks, up 5% from last year

🛢️ Biden taps the reserves

__Kibbles ‘n’ miss...__ __[Chewy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CHWY)__ was a pandemic go-to for pet goodies as 1 in 5 Americans welcomed new WFH companions into their homes. The online pet-supply deliverer even turned its [first](https://www.wsj.com/articles/chewy-turns-profit-as-covid-19-boosts-online-sales-and-pet-ownership-11617139571) profit last year, after going public. But its fortunes have stalled. Chewy shares [sank](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CHWY) 16% yesterday after it unboxed a $63M quarterly [loss](https://www.barrons.com/articles/chewy-stock-price-earnings-51648589227?tesla=y) — its third in row, and nearly double [what](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/chewy-hit-with-a-supply-and-demand-double-whammy/2022/03/30/45366ccc-b043-11ec-9dbd-0d4609d44c1c_story.html) investors were expecting. 

- __Empty digi-cart:__ Sales [jumped](https://www.barrons.com/articles/chewy-stock-price-earnings-51648589227?tesla=y) 17% from a year earlier, but Chewy expects growth to slow this year as supply setbacks create a “highly challenging operating environment.”

__The golden (retriever) era…__ Chewy makes most of its $$ through [autoship](https://www.petproductnews.com/news/autoship-purchases-contribute-to-majority-of-chewy-s-2021-net-sales/article_e8e3b618-b03e-11ec-bd72-83a928340e01.html) (think: weekly cat-litter deliveries). Over the past two years, the company has raked in 7M+ [new](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/03/30/chewy-inc-chwy-q4-2021-earnings-call-transcript/) customers, but as the puppy-palooza fades so has Chewy’s growth. To win pet parents back:

- __Chewy Loyalty:__ Chewy will launch its first membership program next year. While the perk details are still TBD, it may help engage regular shoppers, who tend to splurge more on their fur babies.

Bone

__You can’t buy loyalty, but you can reward it…__ Chewy gained popularity — while differentiating itself from Amazon — with a relentless customer-centric approach. The company’s known for sending customers handwritten notes and even [custom pet portraits](https://www.dailypaws.com/pet-news-entertainment/pet-news/chewy-sends-customers-custom-pet-portraits) and flowers when their pets die. But not even above-and-beyond customer service is a match for persistent supply shortages. If your kitty’s favorite wet food isn't in stock, you’ll click it on __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ or grab it during your grocery run. Chewy’s planned loyalty program could keep pet parents from straying — if the perks are worth it.

Chewy shares plunge as the puppy-palooza slows and supply snags threaten to take a bite out of customer loyalty

__Took a DNA test, I'm 100%...__ compression fabric? Lizzo is famous for her serotonin-packed confidence anthems. Now the star is also a CEO: Lizzo's [launching](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/30/lizzo-launches-yitty-shapewear-brand-in-tie-up-with-fabletics.html) a shapewear brand called __Yitty__ (her childhood nickname) in partnership with athleisure maker __Fabletics__. It’ll be sold online and in Fabletics' 76 stores.

- __Bold:__ Yitty launches on April 12 with neon bodysuits, printed smoothing shorts, curve-hugging tanks, and other boldly colored shapewear.
- __Inclusive:__ Sizes range from XS to 6X (one size larger than Kim K's __Skims__) and prices range from $15 to $70 (many $$ cheaper than __[Lululemon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LULU)__).
- __Comfy:__ As a teen Lizzo sported pinch-tight girdles and corsets at school. With Yitty, she’s focused on super-soft fabrics.

__XS to 6X…__ sounds like success. OG shapewear was meant to be hidden. New-school shapewear is meant to be flaunted, and on all body types. Lizzo's goal: "take the shame out of shapewear by infusing the category with fashion.” It's already happening: while shapewear sales still haven't fully rebounded from their pandemic plunge (less going out = less shaping), the formerly hush-hush category is now cool.

- __Celeb brands__ like Kim’s K’s Skims and Rihanna’s __Savage X Fenty__ have infused new life into shapewear. Skims recently doubled its valuation to $3.2B.
- __Pre-Kardashian:__ In the ’90s, Sara Blakely famously used $5K of her savings to [launch](https://www.masterclass.com/articles/sara-blakely-founder-of-spanx#sara-blakelys-education-and-early-career) __Spanx__, creating modern-day shapewear — and notching a unicorn valuation last year.

Truth hurts, and so does old-school shapewear [Chris Saucedo/Getty Images]

__Shapewear could be the next athleisure…__ because the pandemic-comfort trend is likely to stretch on (case in point: Lulu’s sales are expected to top $7.5B this year). Athleisure boomed because we wore leggings while lounging *and* grocery shopping. Shapewear could also boom as people use it both as underwear and as outerwear (bodysuit + blazer = party fit). As the post-Spanx revival gains steam, the global shapewear market is expected to hit $7B by 2030 (up from $2B in 2020).

From Lizzo to Kim K, celeb-driven brands redefine (and revive) the old-school shapewear market

Lizzo launches a shapewear brand as celebs redefine (and revive) the old-school category

Before 2012, Pizza Hut was one of the largest buyers of kale in the US — it used it to garnish the salad bar

🎵 Lizzo’s shapewear revolution

__W-2 anxiety is real…__ Tax season is here, and TurboTax is __[Intuit](https://robinhood.com/stocks/INTU)__. Intuit is the financial software powerhouse behind TurboTax, Credit Karma, and QuickBooks. Its specialty: making finances less #anxiety-inducing, with hand-holding walk-throughs and user-friendly screens. Now, Intuit has some anxiety of its own — and it’s not the April 18 filing deadline.

- __The FTC sued Intuit__ yesterday [over](https://www.barrons.com/articles/ftc-sues-intuit-turbotax-marketing-51648562540) what it’s calling TurboTax's "deceptive" marketing, with the aim of blocking TurboTax from advertising its services as “free.”
- __The consumer protection agency__ [said](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftc-sues-intuit-over-turbotax-ads-offering-free-tax-filing-11648577189) that two-thirds of US taxpayers couldn’t qualify for TurboTax’s free offering last tax year — and many don't find out they need to pay until later in the process, after they’ve already entered info.
- __Intuit__ says “simple returns” can be filed free, and that last year 17M people filed for free on TurboTax.

__Upgrade to claim your tax break...__ While most countries [provide](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22596072/irs-turbotax-hr-block-free-file-tax-return) easy online services where taxpayers can file free of charge, free options in the US are more complicated: fill out a paper form, manually enter everything into a digital form, or file through private tax software (but only if you earn $73K or less). Intuit said it’s been focused on boosting free filers. Still:

- Tax-prep companies like TurboTax and __[H&R Block](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HRB)__ reportedly spent millions [lobbying](https://www.propublica.org/article/filing-taxes-could-be-free-simple-hr-block-intuit-lobbying-against-it) against legislation that would’ve allowed the IRS to simplify filing.

TurboTax before the modern tax season [James Keyser/Getty Images]

Angst

__Complexity is a biz opportunity…__ because consumers will pay extra to have headache-inducing (but critical) processes simplified. The US’s convoluted tax system is bad for taxpayers, but great for companies like Intuit and H&R Block — if taxes were a cakewalk, fewer people would likely need their services. (It’s a similar convo for the hard-to-navigate healthcare industry: companies like __[Teladoc](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TDOC)__, __[GoodRx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GDRX)__, and __Zocdoc__ thrive on simplifying experiences.) This week, President Biden released a budget proposal that includes $14B for the IRS, but TBD if any of that will go toward creating a simpler filing system.

While the gov’t sues TurboTax over “deceptive” free-filing ads, the US tax system is still a headache

__Let’s BeReal…__ nobody wants to curate every moment for Instagram. That’s fueling the growth of __BeReal__, a new “unfiltered” social app that’s gaining traction with college students (1M+ downloads last month alone). How it works:

- __Whatever you’re doing at 2:30 pm…__ is what your friends see. Every day, BeReal users are prompted to take a selfie and front-facing pic at a random time. Users have two minutes to take their filter-free pics, and can’t post more.
- __The anti-Instagram:__ BeReal doesn’t allow “likes” and discourages “lurking” by making users post before seeing their friends’ pics. Instead of sushi in Tulum, you get Cheeto hands in bed. 

__Not the first Facebook alternative…__ Lots of upstarts have challenged __[Meta’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ social supremacy with features like photo tagging, stories, and live audio. FB kept its crown by buying them (__Insta__), copying them (__[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)/TikTok__), or watching ’em fade (__Clubhouse__). But now FB faces a more fundamental challenge: growing skepticism of its engagement-driven algorithms. 

- __Algo-anxiety:__ A WSJ investigation last year [revealed](https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-knows-instagram-is-toxic-for-teen-girls-company-documents-show-11631620739) that FB knew Insta’s algorithm was linked to depression, anxiety, and eating disorders in teens.
- __Shrinking base:__ FB’s total users [declined](https://www.vox.com/recode/2022/2/2/22915110/facebook-meta-user-growth-decline-first-time-metaverse-mark-zuckerberg-tiktok-competition-earnings) last quarter for the first time, and the number of young adults on FB has been [falling](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-25/facebook-files-show-growth-struggles-as-young-users-in-u-s-decline#:~:text=The%20number%20of%20young%20adults,ago%2C%20and%20sending%20fewer%20messages) since 2019.
- __Reversing course:__ This month, Insta [launched](https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/23/instagram-launches-chronological-and-favorites-feeds-for-all-users-but-they-cant-be-the-default/) a chronological feed, a rare step back from algo-fueled ordering — though it can’t be set as default. __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ recently [made](https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/14/22977782/twitter-default-home-algorithmic-timeline-feed-reverse-chronological) a similar move.

Unfiltered

__It’s easy to rip off a new feature…__ but it’s harder to overhaul an entire biz model. Even if BeReal is just a fad, it points to an existential problem for the social-media incumbents: younger users are gravitating toward platforms with *fewer* features focused on their friends. But for social giants that rely on algorithm-powered ad revenue, fewer features may mean fewer advertisers.

An anti-Insta social app is sweeping college campuses — and highlighting a problem for Facebook

The FTC sues TurboTax over its “free”-filing ads, and the US tax system is still a headache

Chris Rock’s comedy-tour ticket sales have surged, with minimum prices up nearly 8X from before the Oscars

🗄️ TurboTax’s “free”-filing lawsuit

__ICYMI...__ Sunday's Oscars ceremony has been garnering more attention for a [shocking](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/28/movies/oscars-will-smith-slap-reactions.html) moment than for actual awards, but there were a few big milestones — including one for streaming: __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ became the first streamer to win the Best Picture award with its indie family drama, “CODA.” __[Netflix’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ “Power of the Dog” was favored to win with [12](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/movies/story/2022-03-27/oscars-2022-best-picture-coda-the-power-of-the-dog#:~:text=Despite%20entering%20the%20Oscar%20race,knew%20it%20couldn't%20lose.) noms, but scored only for Best Director (#woof). 

__Award-winning > bingeworthy…__ When Apple TV+ launched in 2019, Netflix already had 160M+ subscribers and hit series like “Stranger Things'' and “The Crown.” To stand out, Apple kept its content library small, focusing on premium shows and movies with A-list actors (like: "The Morning Show" with Jen Aniston). That prestige-forward strategy is racking up awards: before “CODA,” “Ted Lasso” gave Apple bragging rights as the first streamer to [win](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3Bs2pOGJvHdNI3cCRY71xs/articles/5bwoHkM8kEclR8HxJMVAmh/) Best Comedy at the Emmys. 

- __Deep pockets:__ With its billions in hardware profits, Apple splurged $25M on distribution rights for “CODA,” when the flick cost just $10M to produce.
- __Lock box:__ Apple hasn’t yet broken out its number of streaming subscribers, but estimates put subs around 40M — a fraction of Netflix and Disney+.

Tim Cook intro’ing Apple’s streamer three years ago this week [Noah Berger/AFP via Getty Images]

Gold

__Apple’s playing the long game…__ and despite its late start, it’s beginning to score. While the Flix has spent a decade churning out everything from reality shows to action movies, Apple’s taken a more curated approach so that its content *feels* as high-quality as its hardware. With Apple’s strategy paying off in golden statues, the halo effect could lure big talent (and eyeballs) that help grow its “services” biz, which now [accounts](https://s2.q4cdn.com/470004039/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/_10-Q-Q1-2022-(As-Filed).pdf) for more than a tenth of revenue. 

Apple beats Netflix as the first streamer to nab Best Picture — as its curated content strategy starts to pay off 

__American dads are cheering…__ New Balance is [proud](https://www.thedad.com/new-balance-pays-homage-to-the-original-dad-shoe/) to be the sneaker brand “worn by supermodels in London and dads in Ohio.” Now those cushy kicks are coming closer to home. Last week, Wall Street icon Larry Fink [said](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5DjHBJsc7oUsCSdRVpJd6X/articles/3IjeIH6NCTZhHChacMHVLa/) that the war in Ukraine could cause US companies to “deglobalize” and shift production stateside. Right on cue: yesterday New Balance [opened](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/new-balance-bulks-up-manufacturing-presence-in-us-amid-supply-chain-backlogs.html) a new factory in its home state of Massachusetts. 

- __New jobs in New England:__ New Balance is aiming to have 200 workers at the space by year’s end to help produce an extra 750K pairs of sneakers/year. 
- __Old jobs in New England:__ NB already had four factories in the Northeast, and it has long advertised its line of “New Balance Made” sneakers that are at least 70% US-manufactured. In total, it will now employ about 1K workers in the US.

__“Made in America” was a marketing classic…__ When US manufacturing powerhouses like __[GE](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GE)__ [moved](https://qz.com/32575/ge-a-pioneer-of-outsourcing-is-bringing-american-manufacturing-back-to-life/) production offshore in the ’70s to lower costs, businesses learned that consumers cared more about low prices than USA labels. That’s why __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__ makes most of its shoes in Vietnam, where workers [earn](https://www.cnet.com/tech/tech-industry/made-in-the-usa-brands-fight-for-your-attention-online/) 13X less than in the US. 

- __But the overseas calculus has been shifting__ as shortages plague supply chains and foreign shipping costs eat into profit. 
- __NB boosted production at US factories__ during the pandemic to reduce overseas reliance, and its sales actually grew faster than Nike’s last year (as supply issues hurt Nike’s inventory).

Kicks

__There’s a New Balance of power in global manufacturing…__ And companies may “onshore” production for the same reason they offshored it: to cut costs. It used to be cheaper for US companies to manufacture products in China and ship them home, but that process got pricier recently as Chinese wages rose and trade disagreements multiplied. Now that shipping costs have soared — first from Covid, then from war — the most cost-effective choice may be manufacturing in the US.

New Balance doubles down on “Made in America” — and it’s not just a marketing play

Apple’s prestige content strategy pays off in Oscar gold, leaving Netflix in rear view

A record 38% of US adults now have a bachelor’s degree or higher

🏆 Apple’s big Oscars win

__The smog of war…__ Russia’s war on Ukraine has roiled markets and mobilized world leaders and businesses. The West has weaponized finance to punish President Putin’s onslaught, from sweeping sanctions to [yacht seizures](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-25/sanctioned-mogul-s-yacht-heads-home-to-russia-as-others-go-dark). The US stopped buying Russian oil, and major companies like __[McDonald’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__ and __[Coke](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__ [halted](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5vfIOlOV4U5lL9HBIaeiOu/articles/xduVS4tKoldDPPu0KAPLB/) business there. Meanwhile, the EU is [scrambling](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/46hG8qxlWDaXYY96ecECBB/) to phase out Russian energy by 2027. Reduced supply from Russia has caused prices of oil, gas, wheat, nickel, and other key commodities to skyrocket. Oil fuels the global economy, from manufacturing to farming to shipping. High energy prices will likely slow economic growth — and [could even trigger](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-surging-to-200-a-barrel-could-send-the-economy-into-recession-goldman-sachs-104726218.html) a US recession.

__Inflation nation intensifies…__ so does pump anxiety. US inflation [reached](https://news.yahoo.com/consumer-price-index-cpi-inflation-february-2022-203614415.html#:~:text=The%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics,expectations%2C%20according%20to%20Bloomberg%20data.) a new 40-year high last month, with consumer prices up [8%](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf) from a year ago. A gallon of gas is hitting $7 in some states. After two years of near-zero interest rates, the stimulus party’s over: the Fed started raising rates this month to cool prices, though only by half of what was expected. Despite all the war-driven uncertainty, Fed Chair Powell [emphasized](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/powell-says-inflation-is-much-too-high-and-the-fed-will-take-necessary-steps-to-address.html) plans for more rate hikes. Now the US is in “boomflation” — inflation paired with strong growth and a nearly recovered labor market. But in an econ nightmare scenario, we could get “stagflation”: high inflation + sluggish growth.

__The big bear(ish) market…__ Your portfolio might be feeling it. Stocks kicked off the year at records, after the market-tracking S&P 500 index gained 27% last year. Fast-forward three months: major indices are all *down* so far, and the techy Nasdaq is down 10% from its record in November. Giant tech stocks like __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ and __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ are weighing down the whole market. As rates and inflation rise, the value of companies’ potential future growth is also falling. Cue: stock prices are being “corrected.” Meanwhile, pandemic thrivers like __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__, __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__, and __[Pinterest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PINS)__ have plunged as demand sags.

Zoom Out

Three themes that defined the first quarter…

- __*$4.5B*:__ Value of __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ alleged to have been [stolen](https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-arrests-couple-allegedly-laundering-45-bln-crypto-tied-bitfinex-hack-2022-02-08/) by a “financial rapper” and her husband in the biggest cryptocurrency theft (__[Netflix’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ next scammer show?). Cybercrime is on the [rise](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/crowdstrike-ceo-cyber-crime-up-as-hackers-use-ukraine-war-as-distraction.html), and US crypto regulation is in the works.
- __$250B:__ How much __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ [lost](https://www.npr.org/2022/02/03/1077820355/facebooks-transition-to-metaverse-has-eaten-into-the-social-media-giants-profits) in one day after reporting its first dip in daily active users. Facebook’s profit-puppy ad biz also took a hit from Apple’s privacy changes, while TikTok’s swiping up users.
- __1.4M:__ The highest [recorded](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html) number of new US Covid cases in a single day (January 10). National cases have fallen and all statewide mask mandates have been lifted. But reported cases are still [rising](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/) in about 10 states.
- __$3.2B:__ The value of Kim Kardashian's __Skims__ shapewear line, which [doubled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2022/01/28/kim-kardashian-is-600-million-richer-after-shapewear-brand-skims-hits-32-billion-valuation/?sh=527b646070d6) over the past year and was boosted by a major cash [injection](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-27/kim-kardashian-s-skim-underwear-brand-doubles-valuation-to-3-2-billion). Celeb-preneur brands like Rihanna’s __Savage X Fenty__ lingerie and makeup biz have thrived.
- __18%:__ The percentage of China’s 1.4B population [using](https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/18/chinas-digital-yuan-wallet-now-has-260-million-individual-users/) digi-yuan wallets. China is among 87 countries [creating](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/L0CnaMn2nWxngpbxPI1pp/) state-controlled digital currencies, though it currently [bans](https://fortune.com/2022/01/04/crypto-banned-china-other-countries/#:~:text=First%20the%20country%20prohibited%20financial,outlawed%20cryptocurrencies%20outright%20in%20September.) unregulated coins like bitcoin.
- __$65M:__ How much Ukraine has [raised](https://www.reuters.com/technology/ukraine-launches-nft-museum-war-crypto-crowdfunding-push-2022-03-25/) in crypto donations so far. It was one of many unconventional ways, along with no-show __[Airbnbs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABNB)__ and __[Etsy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ETSY)__ donations, that people supported global efforts.

Six notable numbers…

__The IPO-palooza is over…__ IPOs [slowed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4aLWhBIUyY9kMIymWGLnlX/) to a trickle this quarter: there was a 25-day span without a *single one*. That's a stark contrast to last year, when 1K+ companies raised a record $268B. Part of the reason private giants like __Stripe__ are holding off: 70% of last year’s IPOs ended the year trading [below](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ipos-had-a-record-2021-now-they-are-selling-off-like-crazy-11640773806) their offering prices. Even __[Rivian](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RIVN)__, the first-to-market EV-truck maker with last year’s biggest debut, has slipped 50% since IPO’ing. __Instacart__ and others have canceled planned IPOs, and the rest of the year’s expected to stay slow.

__Ready Player (Every) One…__ US consumers [spent](https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/us-consumers-spent-a-record-dollar32b-on-home-entertainment-in-2021#:~:text=Spending%20on%20subscription%20streaming%20rose,year%202021%20to%20%2429.3%20billion.) $60B on video games last year — twice as much as they spent on streaming movies and TV. Gaming deals hit a new high score this quarter: “GTA” maker __[Take-Two](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TTWO)__ revealed [plans](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/ttIvZRE8iPSUMYKDtpCyi/articles/7J1KPl6IrvYfOGG3GCcWHr/) to buy Farmville maker __[Zynga](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZNGA)__ for $12.7B in the biggest gaming deal of all time — until __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ beat that a week later with a $70B [bid](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4eOJialeY3vTs2AHV0FkZt/) to buy “Call of Duty” maker __[Activision](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ATVI)__. Now gaming’s entering a new phase: the metaverse. Tech giants __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ and __[Nvidia](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NVDA)__ are spending billions building metaverses, and gaming platforms like __[Roblox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RBLX)__ could be crucial to snagging early meta-users.

__Moderation mayhem…__ Tech has been in the moderation hot seat, from the usual suspects (Meta, __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__) to __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__ and __TikTok__. Joe Rogan created a [Spotifiasco](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2FtGMggXCA4QwI5ITOUoAX/) when medical experts and Neil Young [called out](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/covid-misinformation-joe-rogan-spotify-petition-1282240/) Covid misinfo on his Spotify-exclusive pod. Rogan’s history of using racial slurs also surfaced. Spotify stood by Earth’s biggest podcaster, but made its moderation policies public for the first time. Others like TikTok and Twitter have had to deal with [multiplying](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/war-ukraine-sparks-new-wave-misinformation-rcna17779) misinfo about Russia’s war in Ukraine. And Meta [allowed](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-facebook-instagram-temporarily-allow-calls-violence-against-russians-2022-03-10/) users to call for violence against Russian invaders.

Zoom In

Three trends that surfaced...

The biggest themes that defined the first quarter, from war to inflation to the metaverse

Remind me what year it is? [Massimo Ravera/Getty Images]

Sci-fi author Neal Stephenson coined “metaverse” in his 1992 best-seller “Snow Crash,” in which people use virtual avatars to escape a dystopia

⌛ Rewinding the quarter

__Big yellow taxi takes a turn…__ but Uber’s in the driver’s seat. The NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission has [agreed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/business/uber-new-york-taxis.html) to list all its cabs on the Uber app. __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ says taxi riders will see prices up front and pay roughly the same amount for a cab as they would for an UberX. Cabbies will see how much they’d make on a given ride, with the power to accept or deny. Uber says taxi drivers *could* make more with Uber than from regular street hailing, while Uber and its taxi partners will take a cut of each ride. 

__“Call a cab”…__ a phrase never uttered by 20-somethings with smartphones. Uber’s rivalry with taxis could best be compared to Giants vs. Yankees (#tense). Starting from when Uber was UberCab, the disruptive startup clashed with taxi unions and regulators. 

- __2010:__ California transit organizations ordered Uber to cease and desist, and San Francisco threatened Uber execs with 90 days of jail time for every ride offered.
- __2014:__ The Verge published [leaked](https://www.theverge.com/2014/8/26/6067663/this-is-ubers-playbook-for-sabotaging-lyft) documents revealing Uber’s cutthroat tactics for poaching __Lyft__ drivers.
- __2018:__ A [wave](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/shadow-uber-s-rise-taxi-driver-suicides-leave-cabbies-shaken-n879281) of suicides among cabbies called attention to record-high medallion prices and the challenges of competing against the modern convenience of ride-hail apps. 
- __2021:__ By last year, the pandemic and ride-hailing apps had pushed [two-thirds](https://www.curbed.com/2021/05/nyc-yellow-cabs-taxis-disappearing.html) of NYC yellow cabs off the streets.

Trying to track down my Uber cab [Daniel Grill/Getty Images]

Cabby

__If you can’t beat ’em, leverage them…__ The ride-hailing app that once vowed to disrupt cab commerce now thinks food-delivery [services](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7smONUNjrn1RF9LBhEgLe7/articles/2aGMAsFF7RhrjGK8g17FCy/), public-transit [partnerships](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2zpVwVyEiGyPCvumSTvoc8/articles/6yN6Pa4Rv06oCT8tXPdeL5/), and traditional taxis will fuel its next growth phase. Plus, Uber is likely getting a great deal: it’s absorbing a massive fleet of drivers in one of its most lucrative [markets](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/business/uber-new-york-taxis.html) during a dire driver shortage. For the taxi drivers, the road ahead is less clear.

After disrupting the taxi industry, Uber’s listing NYC cabs on its app to fuel growth

__End of an era…__ According to Wall Street’s $10T man, Larry Fink, three decades of globalization is ending. Refresher: globalization is the movement of products, tech, and jobs across borders through free trade. Yesterday the __[BlackRock](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BLK)__ boss [told](https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-chairmans-letter) investors he believes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will halt globalization and cause countries to “decouple” from the global economy.

- __Fink’s words echoed__ across the business world because BlackRock manages $10T in assets (think: pension funds and retirement accounts). That’s more than the GDP of every country except the US and China. 

__The big breakup…__ Many countries [cut](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2aFNNo1cLzMdtzoAVyyeFI/) financial ties with Russia after its invasion: the US halted Russian oil imports, and major corporations stopped doing biz there. Meanwhile, the EU is [scrambling](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/46hG8qxlWDaXYY96ecECBB/) to phase out Russian energy by 2027. But Fink says Russia’s aggression will also push countries to reduce dependence on each other and boost domestic production.

- __The cons:__ Fink expects that companies will bring supply chains closer to home, which could drive up prices as businesses rebuild operations and hire domestic workers. “Onshoring” is already happening in the US’s EV industry and in the chip biz. 
- __The pros:__ Blue-collar workers in the US, Mexico, Brazil, and Southeast Asia could benefit from more local manufacturing jobs. Green-energy adoption could accelerate as countries invest in renewables to limit reliance on imported fossil fuels.

Fink

__Globalization is a mixed bag…__ and deglobalization could have pros and cons too. In the past three decades, globalization helped US companies by driving down production costs and boosting profits. It also benefited American consumers by lowering prices (think: $100 4K flat screens from China). But globalization hurt blue-collar Americans by outsourcing their jobs to cheaper labor markets. Now deglobalization could reverse those effects by shifting production stateside (think: TVs made in the US by American workers — but they cost $600).

Wall Street’s most powerful investor says globalization as we know it is ending — and blue-collar workers could benefit

🚕 After disrupting the taxi industry, Uber’s listing NYC cabs on its app to fuel growth

On a typical day, the Netflix “skip intro” button is pressed 136M times, saving viewers nearly 200M years in watch time

🚕 Uber welcomes taxis

__There’s an IPO drought…__ and it’s leaving Wall Street thirsty. Big banks like __[Morgan Stanley](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MS)__, __[Chase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM)__, __[Bank of America](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BAC)__, __Goldman__, and __[Citi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/C)__ make big bucks from helping companies go public. But as initial public offerings have slowed to a trickle, fees have shriveled:

- __Fewer offerings, less champagne:__ The Big Five investment banks have [earned](https://www.ft.com/content/31dcd748-26d2-4f7a-ad3d-a3efc05c0f25) just $645M from IPO fees this year, compared to $5.3B at this point last year (don’t cry for the banks: their profits mostly come from other services, like wealth management).
- __Boom to bust:__ Last year companies [raised](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-record-year-for-ipos-in-2021) a record $286B through 1K+ IPOs, or three IPOs *per day*. Already this year there was a 25-day stretch without a single IPO, the longest dry spell in five years.

__A perfect storm…__ Last year, IPO conditions were ideal: booming markets, low interest rates, confident investors, SPACs, and online roadshows made listing easy. But the clouds have rolled in and most of last year’s IPOs are trading [below](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ipos-had-a-record-2021-now-they-are-selling-off-like-crazy-11640773806) their listing prices (not encouraging for prospective IPO’ers). Some other reasons for the reversal:

- __Too many IPOs:__ We may be seeing "demand pulled forward" — aka some companies that would’ve IPO’d this year already did last year. 
- __Too many options:__ VCs are sitting on [record](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-900-billion-cash-pile-inflating-startup-valuations-11640539562) cash piles, giving startups easy access to private $$ — and one less reason to tap the public markets.
- __Too much uncertainty:__ Now public-curious companies have to navigate the effects of war, a newly hawkish Fed, and bearish markets.

IPO times have changed [Spencer Platt/Getty Images]

Float

__IPOs prefer calm weather…__ and right now the weather in public markets is anything but. Companies that can afford to are choosing to delay going public until conditions improve: last month fintech biz __Acorns__ [canceled](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-18/investing-app-acorns-pioneer-cancel-2-2-billion-spac-deal) its offering last minute because of “market conditions.” __Instacart__ and __Stripe__ also recently said they planned to stay private, dashing investors’ IPO dreams, at least for now.

IPOs have dried up after last year’s IPO-palooza, and banks are taking a nearly $5B hit

__Took the Harry Potter sorting quiz...__ still not a wizard. Investors weren’t feeling the magic this week when HuffPost owner __[BuzzFeed](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BZFD)__ dished up its first public earnings. On the plus side, annual [sales](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/buzzfeed-says-people-are-spending-less-time-on-facebook.html) were up 24% from 2020. On the not-so-plus side, revenue was still $100M short of what investors expected. BuzzFeed shares are down 40% [since](https://www.axios.com/buzzfeed-earnings-q4-2021-1308121a-a492-4fbb-9433-550cbfeb734e.html) its December IPO.

__10 reasons your cat’s grumpy…__ Like most digi-media companies, BuzzFeed makes money through strategically placed ads — alongside “Seinfeld” quizzes and spring break shopping listicles. But a decade ago, the company built out a legit newsroom (think: major investigative reports). Last year BuzzFeed’s global news division even won a [Pulitzer](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/davidmack/pulitzer-prize-buzzfeed-news-won-china-detention-camps). But like many newsrooms, BuzzFeed News bleeds money, to the tune of $10M a year. Now:

- __Close:__ Some shareholders want BuzzFeed to ditch its news biz entirely, saying it could add $300M to its market cap.
- __Shrink:__ BuzzFeed instead wants to cut costs by offering buyouts (the prelude to layoffs) to [dozens](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/buzzfeed-investors-have-pushed-ceo-jonah-peretti-to-shut-down-newsroom.html) of news staffers. Three top editors have already quit. 
- __Pivot to video:__ The company says it can help offset news losses by growing its e-comm biz, including producing and monetizing more vertical __TikTok__-esque videos.

__Self-reliance is hard to achieve…__ in the digi-media economy. Publishers like BuzzFeed rely on clicks from __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ and YouTube to drive traffic — and a single algorithm change could crush their numbers. Last year BuzzFeed warned that a heavy reliance on social-media platforms could hurt its business, and it has. In its earnings call, its CFO repeatedly mentioned that its audience was abandoning Facebook, where the bulk of its e-com traffic comes from.

BuzzFeed’s first earnings: newsroom cuts, resignations, and the dangers of depending on Facebook 

Madeleine Albright, who died yesterday at 84, was the first woman to be US secretary of state

🦄 Where are all the IPOs?

__Schnitzel in the Model S...__ crispy luxury. __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ just cut the ribbon at its new Gigafactory outside Berlin. Elon Musk and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz [attended](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-hands-over-first-model-ys-german-gigafactory-finally-goes-live-2022-03-22/) the opening of Tesla's first European plant — Elon [danced](https://twitter.com/Teslarati/status/1506269484763463681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1506269484763463681%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ndtv.com%2Fworld-news%2Felon-musk-breaks-into-dance-as-he-hands-over-made-in-germany-teslas-2837430), Olaf didn't,. Tesla snagged approval to produce up to 500K cars/year at Giga Berlin, but ramping up production will take time. It’s hoping for 30K cars by June.

__Fake German heiress...__ real Model X. By expanding manufacturing, Tesla [delivered](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4JaJC0FkdGD5qt6zW5UWxa/articles/6g5fbLZOViIV6i968tWbF8/) almost 1M cars last year — nearly double 2020 deliveries. Giga Berlin will play a key role as Tesla's European production hub (currently it ships cars to Europe from its China plant, and pays hefty import duties for the privilege). Tesla’s footprint:

- __Fremont, CA:__ Tesla's OG factory is the [most productive](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-tesla-factory-california-texas-car-production/#:~:text=Now%2C%20Tesla's%20original%20California%20factory,of%208%2C550%20cars%20a%20week.) car plant in the US (8.5K cars/week). The bulk of Teslas come from here. 
- __Reno, NV, and Buffalo, NY:__ These Giga plants [produce](https://electrek.co/2021/07/14/tesla-factory-locations-where-they-are-and-could-soon-be/#:~:text=Current%20Tesla%20factories,and%20one%20is%20in%20China.) electric motors, batteries, and solar-energy-storage products instead of EVs.
- __Shanghai:__ The second Giga after Fremont to actually assemble Teslas. Since starting production in 2019, it’s nearly doubled in size. 
- __Next up:__ Giga Texas is under construction in Austin, TX, and will become Tesla’s new HQ (#TaxReasons). It’ll also crank out Cybertrucks… if they ever materialize.

The Technoking and Germany’s chancellor christen Tesla’s first European factory  [Patrick Pleul/Getty Images]

Giga

__A global footprint is fuel…__ for global EV domination. Last year [85%](https://www.canalys.com/newsroom/global-electric-vehicle-market-2021) of the world’s EVs were sold to customers in Europe and China. With oil prices gone haywire, EV demand could soar. Thanks to its continent-spanning factories, Tesla can produce at a much higher volume than other EV-first companies. But it’s losing ground in Europe to OGs like Volkswagen, which has eclipsed Tesla in EV sales there. The Berlin Gigafactory should help Tesla compete on VW’s home turf.

Tesla opens a Gigafactory in Germany to win back Europe’s EV market

__DecentraCow…__ Non-fungible tokens could be coming to a farm near you. A Wyoming cattleman recently [started](https://thespoon.tech/its-like-a-drivers-license-for-cows-why-one-wyoming-company-is-creating-nfts-for-cattle/) a four-person shop called __CattleProof__ to help fellow ranchers create NFTs for their cows (the same guy also founded [BeefChain](https://beefchain.com/about/), which aims to help ranchers sell blockchain-validated meat — call him a crypto bull). Here’s how CattleProof makes it easier to track and sell cattle:

- __Connected cows:__ Ranchers attach sensors to their cows and upload their bovines’ data (like: weight, birthplace, birthday). Then they mint NFTs with that info on the ethereum blockchain.
- __Digital records:__ Many ranchers still use paper records, which can be lost or altered. But CattleProof NFTs can’t be edited: when cows are sold, they’ll have “driver’s licenses” with accurate digital info about their origins and medical histories. 

__Bored Cow Graze Club…__ Big Agriculture has been embracing blockchain technology to make supply chains safer and more efficient. More than *half* of fruits and veggies are [lost](https://www.ibm.com/blockchain/resources/food-trust/fresh-produce/) along the supply chain, leading to $100B+ in annual food waste. Blockchain systems could create more transparency from farm to store: 

- __Weeding out bad veggies:__ After a deadly 2018 E. coli outbreak caused a nationwide romaine recall, __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ started using __[IBM’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/IBM)__ blockchain tech to track its fruits and veggies — and to avoid future recalls. 
- __Fighting food fraud:__ Tomato farmers in Italy [work](https://www.tomatonews.com/en/italy-puts-tomatoes-on-the-blockchain_2_1098.html) with a blockchain biz to protect the value of their “Made in Italy” label from counterfeiters. 

__NFTs are becoming more practical…__ Early NFT hype centered on digital art, but these tokens can be applied to more than ape collectibles. NFTs are already being used to verify ownership of physical assets, from a plot of real estate to, now, a herd of cows. The latest use case has companies adopting blockchain tech to fix broken supply chains and improve out-of-date systems.

Ranchers are minting NFTs for cows as agriculture embraces blockchain tech

15% of Google searches have never been Googled before

🏎️ Tesla speeds into Europe

__Not the continental-breakfast variety...__ Buffett just added a lot to his plate. Warren Buffett's legendary holding company, __[Berkshire Hathaway](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BRK.A)__, owns businesses like Geico, Duracell, and Dairy Queen, and has major investments in blue-chip companies like __[Coca-Cola](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__, __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, and __[Amex](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AXP)__ (hence: "holding"). Now the 91-year-old billionaire is doing his biggest deal in six years:

- __Double down:__ Berkshire agreed to buy insurance conglomerate __[Alleghany](https://robinhood.com/stocks/Y)__ for $11.6B in cash. Insurance = a Berkshire bread-and-butter industry that [generates](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/berkshire-hathaway-acquire-alleghany-116-bln-deal-2022-03-21/) a fifth of its profits. 
- __Double up:__ Alleghany stock jumped 25% yesterday as Berkshire offered Alleghany shareholders a sweet premium to buy their stock.

__A Cherry Coke a day...__ Even with a $120B net worth, Buffett's famous for his modest lifestyle. Think: still living in the Omaha house he bought in the ’50s, having Coke and McMuffins for [breakfast](https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-diet-2017-10#on-the-first-breakfast-of-the-week-i-was-nervous-but-had-a-supply-of-foolish-confidence-in-my-ability-to-handle-what-was-ahead-2), and donating most of his $$ instead of splurging. He’s been conservative with investments too:

- __Berkshire hasn’t made a big acquisition__ since 2016, opting to hoard its nearly $150B cash pile and invest in companies it already holds. In his popular shareholder letter last month, Buffett complained that nothing looked attractive. 
- __Despite its conservative approach,__ Berkshire has [beat](https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2021ar/2021ar.pdf) the overall market when compared against the S&P 500. Last week its Class A stock surpassed $500K/share (not a typo), and has hit a new high on the Allegheny deal.

The Oracle of Omaha makes a $12B comeback [Scott Olson/Getty Images]

Oracle

__Slow and steady wins the race…__ at least for Buffett. The Oracle of Omaha’s 60-year investment strategy focuses on un-sexy but reliable industries like insurance and utilities — and, yes, even fossil fuels. Rule #5 of Berkshire's acquisition [criteria](https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2000ar/acq.html): invest in "simple businesses (if there's lots of technology, we won't understand it)." Before the Allegheny deal, Berkshire was [doubling down](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/investing/berkshire-hathaway-warren-buffett-occidental-petroleum/index.html) on OG investments like __[Occidental Petroleum](https://robinhood.com/stocks/OXY)__. As high-growth tech stocks have plunged, Berkshire has been more resilient thanks to its more defensive investments like oil and insurance.

Berkshire shows its dedication to old-school industries in Buffett's biggest deal since 2016

__Date night on a school night…__ there’s an app for that. Yesterday __[Match](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTCH)__ [launched](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/match-stir-is-a-new-dating-app-for-single-parents.html) Stir, a dating app for single parents. Match owns over a [dozen](https://mtch.com/ourcompany) matchmaking apps, like Tinder and Hinge, which together reach [16M](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-bumble-become-the-next-match-group)+ paying users worldwide. Now Match is targeting the [20M](https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/21/match-group-launches-its-latest-dating-app-stir-aimed-at-single-parents/) single US parents.

- __Penciling in:__ Stir’s “me time” feature lets busy parents create a calendar-like schedule so that potential matches can see the best time to meet between work and soccer practice.
- __Sans-swipe:__ Users can scroll from a roster of local singles, but the Tinder-esque swipe is gone. 
- __Freemium:__ Stir is free to download and use, but for $40/month you get bonus features like “super likes” to let people know you’re *really* into their profile pic.

__Balancing act…__ The US has the world’s highest rate of one-parent homes, but it’s a market overlooked by dating services. A quarter of single parents say coordinating schedules prevents them from dating. On mainstream apps, singles with kids have a harder time connecting to those without: over [half](https://www.fastcompany.com/90732580/match-launches-a-new-dating-app-designed-for-single-parents) say they’ve been ghosted after a first date. With Stir:

- __Match can grow its Western user base,__ which is recovering faster compared with Asian countries, where Covid lockdowns have been blocking meetups.
- __Match has been building__ a suite of dating apps based on relationship type (hook up vs. committed), age, race, and religious preferences — now it’s targeting based on family structures.

__You can go wide or you can go niche…__ While rival __[Bumble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BMBL)__ is expanding into platonic relationships (like: Bumble Biz and Bumble BFF), Match is going all in on romance with a segmentation strategy. Picture: apps like Hawaya, which caters to Muslim singles, and OurTime, aimed at singles over 50. The timing seems right: last quarter Match’s sales grew 24% — but paid users fell for the first time since the pandemic began.

Match launches a dating app for single parents, as the Tinder owner continues to niche-ify the dating pool

Cable-TV providers lost another 4.7M customers last year to cord-cutting

👓 Buffett’s back

__When you blink and gas is $5...__ Your move, J-Pow. Two months ago, the Fed thought conditions were ripe for hiking interest rates to fight inflation: Covid in retreat, a strong labor market, and a rebounding economy. Then Russia invaded Ukraine.

- __Surge:__ Sanctions against Russia have sent the prices of commodities like oil and wheat soaring. 
- __Change of plans:__ Last week, the Fed hiked rates by a quarter point, half of what some expected pre-war. 
- __Soft landing:__ The Fed’s still worried about inflation and signaled six more hikes this year. But it’s also worried rapid hikes could slow growth.

__A ’70s economic monster could return…__ its name: stagflation (aka inflation + stagnant growth). Typically, inflation and recessions don’t happen simultaneously. But when they do, profits can shrink, assets like stocks can tumble, and workers can lose jobs. When stagflation last reared its head in the 1970s after an oil shock, economists weren’t sure what to do and markets slumped for a decade. Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker intervened by raising rates to historic levels, which led to a painful recession.

- __Echoes:__ The war keeps pushing oil higher, and since it still fuels the world, that could contribute to a recession.
- __Outlook:__ __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS)__ [estimates](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html) that the odds of a US recession are as high as 35%, and it’s already [cut](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/goldman-sachs-cuts-us-growth-forecast-commodity-prices-bite-2022-03-11/) its growth forecast for this year. 
- __Pocketbooks:__ Higher rates = higher borrowing costs for consumers. E.g.: the rate on a 30-year mortgage just ticked above 4% for the first time since 2019. 
- __Limits:__ While rate hikes can curb inflation, they can’t [fix](https://www.ft.com/content/f0a6303f-336b-49e8-a253-f21a101dd029) geopolitical jolts.

Protesting rising food prices in 1973, during a time of “stagflation” in the US Credit: [Keystone/Getty Images]

Slug

__The Fed faces a delicate balancing act…__ Powell’s job is to tame inflation, but not so much that it slams the brakes on growth. The US has been experiencing “boomflation”: inflation that’s bearable because wages have been rising and employment is high. But now the shadow of stagflation is creeping in — especially in Europe, because of its dependence on Russian energy. And in a globalized economy, struggles in one country can quickly become another’s.

Some economists are worried about “stagflation” — and it’s bringing on ’70s-era déjà vu to the market

__Late fees...__ After a slew of Western sanctions, Russia’s hurtling toward default as it struggles to pay off foreign debts in USD. Moscow said it [paid](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/world/europe/russia-bond-payment.html) $117M due in interest last week, avoiding its first default since 1998. But it’s unclear whether Russia will make its $2B payment in April. Experts [say](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-03-15/what-if-russia-defaults-on-its-debt-ukraine-war-sanctions-risk-150-billion) a default likely won’t drag down global markets as it did in ’98, since banks have reduced Russian exposure. Still, [Russia’s central bank](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/18/world/ukraine-russia-war#russia-central-bank-economy) says sanctions will cripple the country’s economy. Russian-linked entities [owe](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/investing/russian-debt-payments/index.html) international banks $121B. 

__The golden honor…__ This could be the year __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ breaks its Oscar curse. The streamer’s favored to nab its first best-picture trophy on Sunday for “The Power of the Dog.” A win for the Flix would be a milestone for the Oscars, which have been slow to recognize streamer-made films in top categories. Another scoreboard to watch: ratings. Last year’s Oscars drew 10.4M viewers — 60% fewer than a year earlier (and 80% fewer from 1998’s high). ABC paid $1B in 2016 for rights to the Oscars, which now get a quarter of the viewers of NFL playoff games.

Stories we’re watching...

__Checking the “LOL” tab...__ while waiting for __[BuzzFeed’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BZFD)__ first earnings. The 16-year-old digi-media pioneer has evolved from a cat-meme extraordinaire to a Pulitzer winner. But its shares have plunged by half since its December SPAC IPO, as investors doubt the profitability of virality. The company did [report](https://www.wsj.com/articles/buzzfeed-revenue-jumps-51-ahead-of-public-listing-11631202114) a 51% jump in annual revenue ahead of its listing. BuzzFeed is still reliant on third-party sites like __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ and YouTube for more than two thirds of its audience. We'll see if that dependence has eased when BuzzFeed reports Tuesday.

__China’s shutdown...__ means your iPhone might be [delayed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1hYpHIVc5P8AlsMMvgrYCo/). A week ago China locked down Shenzhen. The city is home to __[Tencent](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TCEHY)__ and [ships](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/61f1B3p6bwLVtvt34XMAtW/) 90% of China’s exports from __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ supplier __Foxconn__ and others, and the shutdown’s weighing on an already strained global supply chain. US-listed Chinese stocks then took their worst [tumble](https://www.ft.com/content/243bcb9a-6a49-4345-9348-1b3825dbad2d) since 2008 as investors worried about China’s “zero Covid” strategy and Beijing’s Moscow ties. We’ll see whether Chinese businesses took a hit when US-listed __[Tencent Music](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TME)__, __[PetroChina](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTR)__, __[China Life Insurance](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LFC)__, __[Nio](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NIO)__, and __[China Petroleum](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNP)__ report this week.

Events

Coming up this week...

- __[Gap](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3w02cADofNMb268YLFTys5/):__ Women earn 82 cents on the dollar compared to men. Now, in a push for transparency, states from Colorado to Connecticut are passing laws that make employers include pay ranges in job postings.
- __[Sun](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6ht9xmeiakqWmxNZxauISJ/):__ Hold your clocks: The Senate unanimously passed a bill to make daylight-saving time permanent. While the vast majority of Americans want a single time system, there’s still [disagreement](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/well/live/daylight-saving-time-standard-time-debate.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-daylight-savings&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_1&block=storyline_top_links_recirc) over which one.
- __[House](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6ht9xmeiakqWmxNZxauISJ/):__ 1900s “company towns” are having a comeback. Resorts like __[Vail](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTN)__, where rents [spiked](https://www.9news.com/article/money/markets/real-estate/mountain-living-more-expensive-part-timers-stay-longer/73-ceca7bf5-6e32-4464-b7c5-d2c663308faf) 20% during the pandemic, are building housing for workers to make living more affordable in WFH hotspots.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

The S-word: Why some economists are worried about stagflation

Netflix has brought back “Servant of the People,” a fictional show starring former actor and current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, for US viewers after airing it from 2017 to 2021