__The dreaded checkout page…__ Say you find a new online shop for neon sneakers. You might abandon the cool kicks in your cart if you’re too lazy to fill in your credit-card info (or if you don’t trust the retailer with delivery). Enter __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__: it’ll widely [roll out](https://www.reuters.com/technology/amazon-widely-launch-buy-with-prime-says-offering-improved-merchant-sales-2023-01-10/) its “Buy with Prime” feature to third-party merchants this month. 

- __Merchants__ that don’t sell on Amazon (think: your fave swimsuit site) can leverage the ecomm giant’s payment, fulfillment, and delivery services. 
- __Less #friction:__ Amazon said BWP increased shopper conversion rate by an average of 25%, meaning fewer people abandoned their carts when buying with Prime was an option. 
- __Prime members__ get the benefits of Amazon’s speedy payment and free next-day delivery on *non*-Amazon sites. FYI: Last year, Prime went up from $119 to $139/year. 
- __Amazon__ gets more $$ (it charges merchants to use BWP). It said payment processing, fulfillment, and storage fees can vary by inventory. 

__No longer in its prime…__ The new revenue from Buy with Prime is a welcome addition as Amazon deals with slowing sales growth in its core retail and cloud businesses. The pandemic boom has died down, and it recently made its largest round of layoffs. The company’s also faced growing regulatory backlash over how it uses customer data to compete with third-party sellers (think: making a cheaper Amazon Basics version of a popular product). Psst: Amazon will still collect data from those who use Buy with Prime. 

Prime from all? (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

__This could be Amazon’s octopus moment…__ BWP could make Amazon even more ubiquitous than it already is, allowing it to widely spread its retail tentacles beyond its platform. It’s also a major threat to ecomm payment titans like __[Shopify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHOP/)__ and __[PayPal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PYPL/)__. Shopify has [reportedly](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/01/shopify-warns-sellers-against-using-amazons-buy-with-prime-service.html) told merchants that are trying to install the BWP button that it violates its terms of service. Amazon has the household edge: a recent survey [found](https://chainstoreage.com/most-trusted-brand-america) it to be the most trusted retailer in America.

Amazon’s “Buy with Prime” button on non-Amazon sites could be an actual game changer

__Like a coming-of-age flick...__ __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX/)__ is going through changes. Last year, the streamer lost 1.2M subscribers over two quarters and saw its stock drop by half. Now it’s trying to drum up fresh revenue and subs with its cheaper [ad-supported](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6PVC1g1zTkOIWMAOCz5HPI/articles/5vY9oa4kPmmqecFo3pry1C/) tier, which launched in November. Investors hope a turnaround is coming: the stock is up ~90% over the past six months as Netflix bolsters its ad biz and cracks down on password mooching. Efforts might be paying off: analysts expect the streamer to announce strong subscriber growth when it reports on Thursday.

__Aisle all-stars…__ The company behind household staples like Tide, Charmin, Crest, and Head & Shoulders shampoo was in the money last year, with price hikes helping __[Procter & Gamble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PG/)__ beat sales and profit expectations. But now higher transportation and materials costs may be taking their toll on P&G's bottom line. What's more, execs expect lofty costs will continue into this year. The Ohio-based company is expected to reveal declines in sales and profits this week. 

Events

Coming up this week

__Non-compete clauses…__ could become non-existent. The Federal Trade Commission proposed a rule that would end legal agreements that keep workers from switching to rival companies after leaving their jobs. From C-suite execs to security guards, nearly 30M US workers are under non-compete agreements, and breaches can lead to pricey fines and lawsuits. Meanwhile, workers who do comply can miss out on higher pay and better working conditions. A ban could boost US wages by nearly $300B/year and help close the racial and gender pay gaps.

__Adding insult to injury…__ there’s more trouble for crypto lenders. Last week the SEC [charged](https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/01/12/gary-gensler-sec-winklevoss-silbert-gemini-genesis/) __Gemini__ and __Genesis__ with selling unregistered securities through their lending program. The crypto cos had offered returns (aka yield) as high as 8% via Gemini Earn — then it went south. Before it went bankrupt, __BlockFi__ paid $100M after the SEC said its interest-bearing accounts were unregistered securities. Going forward, crypto lenders may be forced to register their products as securities or face the costly consequences.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching

- __[GPT](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/64ZuFLHX6YfnQ8QQYZICfn/articles/5EDobF4dEXa3d5APRhq1hn/):__ __[Microsoft’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT/)__ reportedly in talks to invest $10B into __OpenAI__, the company behind viral genAI tools like ChatGPT and DALL-E. It could incorporate the AI tech into its search engine, Bing, or its Office software. 

- __[Augment](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2RAMcvZH7Vv5M7DNfIJWJJ/articles/fxsDMWL8rpHSrnrXfySNc/):__ __Apple__ could (finally) launch its mixed-reality headset this year, which would position it against rivals like __[Meta’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META/)__ Quest VR. But the reality of success for pricey face gadgets looks iffy.

- __[CEO](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/349vN9seEikUONVdVtRvP0/articles/uMbh670ekDujd6duoyTol/):__ As the US’s fastest-growing group of entrepreneurs, Black women are increasingly leaving corporate roles to launch their own companies — but funding challenges are hampering growth.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

Martin Luther King is the only American, other than George Washington, with a national holiday observed in his honor

🐙 Amazon’s octopus moment

__Quitting the 9-to-5…__ to be your own boss. Black Americans are more likely to start businesses than any other group, and women of color start businesses at [4.5X](https://www.forbes.com/sites/elizabethmacbride/2021/05/23/white-men-are-now-the-minority-of-business-owners-in-the-united-states/?sh=526047ae1582) the rate of the overall population (as of 2021, white men comprised the *minority* of business owners). As the US’s fastest-growing group of entrepreneurs, Black women are increasingly [leaving](https://www.businessinsider.com/black-women-leaving-corporate-america-entreprenurship-startups-2022-12) corporate roles to launch their own companies. A few factors boosting this trend:

- __Discrimination:__ Many are worn down by the effects of implicit or explicit bias in corporate America. [Nearly half](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2023/01/04/dei-policy-are-companies-just-trying-to-check-a-box/?sh=2241c7ae750a) of job seekers say they feel discriminated against during the hiring process, and 55% continue to experience discrimination after getting the job.

- __Job losses:__ Black women were the most affected by pandemic-related job losses. In 2020, the labor-force participation rate of Black women dropped sharply and is expected to keep falling, though it’s still higher than the rate for white women.

- __FYI:__ Diverse companies tend to outperform more homogenous orgs, both in profits and in innovation. For companies, losing Black female employees is a worrying trend. 

__Mind the gap…__ While the rate of Black entrepreneurship is high, bias and funding gaps pose roadblocks to growth. As of January 2022, just [4%](https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-leading-through-the-crisis/charting-the-path-to-the-next-normal/growth-is-elusive-for-many-black-owned-brands) of Black businesses were still open after 3.5 years, compared to the national average of 55%. Fewer than half of Black businesses were considered healthy before the pandemic, versus 73% for white-owned businesses. Lack of capital is a major factor hampering growth for Black businesses.

Breaking out of the 9-to-5 (MoMo Productions/Getty Images)

Venture

__Closing the gap is key to unlocking growth…__ Loans and venture capital are critical to business growth, but Black startups (especially those run by women) tend to have less access to funding. Black individuals and communities have traditionally been the most likely to be denied access to capital. That’s partly why the racial wealth gap is still so wide: the typical white family has [8X times](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/disparities-in-wealth-by-race-and-ethnicity-in-the-2019-survey-of-consumer-finances-20200928.htm) the wealth of the typical Black family.

Black women are America’s fastest-growing group of entrepreneurs, but funding challenges are hampering growth

__Coming in hot…__ during crypto winter. Last year saw a record $20B+ in illicit crypto transactions, [according](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-12/criminal-activity-thrived-in-otherwise-tough-year-for-crypto) to a Chainalysis report. Those came in the form of dark-net market sales, ransomware payments, scams, and hacks. Cross-chain [bridges](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/f8suYXqPD4YTOYUaoKShp/articles/75PhXHd2sIDVNK6TcV8jy4/) alone saw hundreds of millions stolen in hacks (most notably __Ronin__ and __Wormhole__). Note: that $20B+ doesn't include any crypto lost to failed exchanges like __FTX__ or bankrupt crypto lenders such as __Celsius__. 

__Getting bigger…__ while staying small. The total dollar value of illicit crypto transactions has been trending up for years. In 2017 it was $5B. In 2019 it hit $12B. And in 2021 it broke $18B. But that rapid climb doesn't tell the entire crypto-crime story. That's because criminal transactions have remained a relatively small percentage of the ~$1T crypto market: 

- __Not so big time:__ Last year's $20B crime record was just 0.24% of all crypto activity that year, and 2% of crypto's total market cap.

- __For some time:__ Illicit transactions have remained under 2% of total crypto-transaction volumes since 2017.

Coined

__Crypto winter didn't freeze crypto crime…__ but there wasn't a huge growth spurt either. Last year's market downturn saw $2T in investor value wiped out, which led to [trouble](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5yKJ21nHWy8FlNAUn6e6yJ/articles/10KCJCjTVi37CddnkJSB65/) at behemoths like __DCG__ and __Gemini__. In this contracting environment, it's surprising that crime rose at all. But zooming out, that record high looks like crypto business as usual.

Crypto crime had a banner year as the industry stumbled, but it’s still a small slice of the pie

📸 __Flashy…__ The SEC [charged](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/technology/sec-crypto-gemini-genesis.html) lender __Genesis__ and exchange __Gemini__ with offering unregistered securities. Regulators said 340K Gemini customers are out $900M that was sent to Genesis' lending program. 

🌶️ __Spicy…__ Disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried [launched](https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/12/23551718/sam-bankman-fried-substack-newsletter-ftx-fraud-charges) a Substack newsletter while awaiting trial on fraud charges related to his exchange's collapse. In his first post SBF denied stealing customer funds.

🎤 __Braggy…__ __Binance__ CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao said the 8K-person exchange is [planning](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/11/binance-plans-15-30percent-hiring-spree-in-2023-even-as-rivals-cut-jobs.html) a hiring spree. As other exchanges like __[Coinbase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN/)__ announce fresh [layoffs](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/64ZuFLHX6YfnQ8QQYZICfn/articles/1R6BZzWQMJunSLoZpN1Ozj/), CZ said Binance expects to pump headcount by up to 30%.

Blog

The Crypto Catch-Up…

Black women are the US's fastest-growing group of entrepreneurs, but funding remains scarce

250K+ people attended MLK’s “I Have a Dream” speech at the Lincoln Memorial

💵 The funding gap

__$500 park tickets…__ for a five-hour Splash Mountain line. __[Disney’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS/)__ [revamping](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/disney-makes-it-easier-for-loyal-customers-to-visit-theme-parks.html) its perks and reservation policies as Mickey lovers return to a packed Magic Kingdom. New sweeteners include free overnight parking for resort hotel guests and digital downloads of screaming ride pictures for Genie+ pass holders (no more sneaking a blurry pic on your phone). There are also changes to Disney’s controversial reservation system, which was introduced during the pandemic:

- __In Florida:__ Walt Disney World Resort’s annual passholders can enter most parks at 2 p.m. *without* a reservation.
- __In California:__ Disneyland visitors with park-hopper tickets can switch parks as early as 11 a.m.
- __FYI:__ Disney’s parks and experiences biz makes up a third of its annual revenue. 

__Not-so-happiest place…__ Last year Disney’s parks biz exceeded prepandemic attendance levels and notched record sales after it hiked ticket prices *twice*. But the Mouse House has faced growing criticism for lofty prices and unusually long lines. Case in point: up to half of Disney World park guests splurged on its Genie+ line-skipping pass last year. 

Packed Mouse House (Jacqueline Nell/Getty Images)

Magic

__You can’t buy loyalty, but you can reward it…__ As prices pick up, Disney has to offer better perks to keep guests splurging on Cinderella Castle suites and $12 corn dogs. Fresh benefits (even small ones) could help customers justify extra time and money spent — and help companies keep them loyal.

Disney boosts park perks to restore some loyalty magic amid price hikes and long lines

__Crypto winter isn't coming…__ it's here. But HBO embraced the cold this week, launching a "Game of Thrones" non-fungible-token collection on Nifty's digital marketplace. The 5K "hero box" NFTs — minted on ethereum and palm (an ethereum sidechain) — contain "GoT" characters like White Walkers and Free Folk. They were roundly mocked as poorly designed, but still sold out within seven hours — for $150 each. 

__Like "GoT" season eight…__ NFTs are in a slump. Once the talk of the tech town, NFTs receded from public consciousness as crypto scandals (think: TerraUSD, __FTX__) sucked up all the industry's oxygen. Trading volumes plummeted 97% from January to September of last year. And “wash trading” (picture: buying and selling to yourself to create the illusion of demand) is estimated to have represented over half of that dwindling pie. Even so, some non-techy NFT mints have managed to draw interest:

- __NFTrump:__ Last month 44K Donald Trump-themed NFTs minted on polygon sold for $99 each. (Trading volume has since tanked.) 
- __NFTennis:__ The Australian Open plans to sell 2K+ tennis-themed NFTs ahead of next week's tourney. Last year the Open's mint of 6.7K NFTs sold out.

HODLOR

__It's not tech culture — it’s pop culture…__ NFTs are no longer a buzzword. Last year they were supplanted by web3, which itself seems like a distant fever dream as investors now froth over genAI (cough, [ChatGPT](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/64ZuFLHX6YfnQ8QQYZICfn/articles/5EDobF4dEXa3d5APRhq1hn/)). But HBO's seemingly successful "GoT" mint suggests there's still an appetite for some NFT projects, assuming they have a strong mainstream hook.

HBO’s "Game of Thrones" NFTs sell out even as crypto collectibles lose their sheen

Disney boosts park perks to restore some magic amid price hikes and long lines

“Top Gun: Maverick” was the highest-grossing US release last year with $719M in ticket sales

🏰 Disney perks up

__Microsoft Word meets artificial intelligence…__ We’ve come a long way since Clippy. __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT/)’s__ Office Assistant used to be a cartoon paperclip — now it could be a sophisticated AI brain. Microsoft has been in talks to invest $10B in __OpenAI__, Semafor [reported](https://www.semafor.com/article/01/09/2023/microsoft-eyes-10-billion-bet-on-chatgpt). OpenAI is the company behind [genAI](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3WEG5SgBgeQScK91kmZwOc/articles/6gWjpZswZYcdRi0vcvZQos/) tools like ChatGPT and DALL-E, which generate articles and images from text prompts.

- __Excelling:__ ChatGPT went viral upon its [release](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1tqjd2M4HaTR4MDXIMoYcr/articles/7IJUQSHnMsihoZe3E8Wbv2/) in November. OpenAI said 1M+ people signed up to test the chatbot in the first five days.

- __Power points:__ Microsoft would reportedly get to keep 75% of OpenAI’s profits until it recoups its investment. After that it would own a 49% stake in the company.

- __Outlook:__ The funding would value OpenAI at $29B, up from $20B in October. The deal could fall apart, but it’s apparently targeted to close by year’s end.

__Microsoft’s edge…__ Microsoft invested $1B in OpenAI in 2019 — and also sells the cloud infrastructure that the tech runs on. According to founder Sam Altman, OpenAI spends a few cents in computing power each time someone uses ChatGPT. That goes straight into Microsoft’s pockets. By deepening its involvement with OpenAI’s tech, Microsoft would gain an edge over cloud titans like __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ and __Google__. Also: 

- __Search:__ Microsoft could incorporate ChatGPT’s chatbot or DALL-E’s image generator into its search engine, Bing, to better compete with Google.

- __Office:__ Microsoft could also include OpenAI’s tech in programs like Word and Outlook (think: using ChatGPT to help you write emails). 

Microsoft has entered the chat (Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images)

__Acquire (relationships) early…__ Right now OpenAI is still free to the public (though it charges developers for licenses). But one day it could disrupt Google’s search dominance and rake in billions. Microsoft got in early to build a dependent relationship, and it could reap the benefits. Still, OpenAI has fierce competition — and its commercial success is far from guaranteed.

Microsoft's reportedly in talks to invest $10B in OpenAI (it's all about the ChatGPT edge)

__Under the weather…__ US crypto exchange __[Coinbase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN/)__ said it's laying off 950 people. In his announcement, CEO Brian Armstrong called out "unscrupulous actors" in crypto (an apparent reference to [SBF](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3kOsGkEHbBt1CqkaBXzvxc/articles/6NgSN4kssplfENc3RTUY6p/)) and mentioned last year's struggling macro economy. It isn't the exchange's first big cut: 

- __Cost cutting:__ As crypto winter set in and trading volume dried up, Coinbase shed 1K+ employees in June and 60 in November.

- __Cost pumping:__ Last week Coinbase was hit with a $50M fine from NY regulators and agreed to spend another $50M on its compliance programs (think: [KYC](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2RAMcvZH7Vv5M7DNfIJWJJ/articles/6kDN2z3N79j0yx4afvat76/)). 

__Crypto’s cold season…__ Coinbase isn’t the only one sick with crypto [contagion](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2jcHshKduiGTXGoK1BTLfi/articles/4DpxcHuAdNYuFZJgwOGiNL/). Last year, the industry shed 26K+ roles. More recently, big players stumbled after __FTX__'s November implosion. Crypto lender __Genesis__ laid off 30% of staff this month, in its second round of cuts, and is now said to be considering bankruptcy. FYI: it also reportedly owes $900M to customers of crypto exchange Gemini. Meanwhile, crypto mega bank __[Silvergate](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SI/)__ cut 40% of its workers last week following an $8B+ [bank run](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7aN8BRAzCXDnsbfVDy7Wtq/articles/AJUGTZjQvUMrUwWVa1rPY/).

Sick

__Contagion comes in waves…__ When a big fish like FTX sinks, it can send ripples across the crypto pond. Those ripples aren't necessarily all felt at once, because it can take a while for other big fish to get hit by the wake. Coinbase’s Armstrong said there might be more contagion coming. But contagion's waves could ultimately leave the overall industry stronger — or more centralized — by washing out crypto's weaker players.

Coinbase lays off 20% of its employees as another wave of contagion hits the crypto industry

Climate disasters in the US racked up $165B in damages last year

🤖 Microsoft GPT?

__Ripe for launch…__ After seven years of development, __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL/)__ could release its mixed-reality headset this year, Bloomberg [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-01-08/when-will-apple-launch-the-reality-pro-mixed-reality-headset-apple-2023-devices-lcnfzkc7?sref=q3KSFp38). The device, apparently dubbed “RealityPro,” aims to augment a user’s environment (think: graphic overlays), not completely immerse you in a virtual world, like Meta’s headsets. While the official use cases are still TBD, it could eventually be used for everything from playing games to hosting virtual work events. 

- __How it started:__ Apple unveiled its AR ambitions in 2017, with plans to hit the market as early as 2019, but development snags have kept launches on the back burner.
- __How it’s going:__ Apple’s built a new operating system for the tech and has recently sent headset prototypes to software developers. While the headset could be ready for consumers by fall, kinks may muddy the timeline.

__Big Tech reality check…__ Headsets would be Apple’s first new major product category since the Apple Watch — and could position it against rivals like __[Meta’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META/)__ Oculus and __[Sony’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SONY/)__ PlayStation VR. But so far it seems as if consumers aren’t going gaga for expensive gadgets to sport on your face. Last year global shipments of VR and AR devices [dropped](https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/01/06/vr-headset-sales-underperform-expectations-what-does-it-mean-for-the-metaverse-in-2023/?sh=251b23c934f5) over 12%. 

- __Headsets are tech's holy grail__, but every effort’s flopped so far: __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL/)__ Glass was an epic fail, and __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP/)__ lost $40M on 300K unsold AR Spectacles.

Apple vision (Christoph Dernbach/Getty Images)

Hooky

__Apple might be bucking a trend…__ of people trying to be more connected to real-world experiences. Read: less glued to tech. We’re seeing this play out, from the underwhelming adoption of Meta’s Horizon Worlds to Gen Z [ditching](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/07/technology/digital-cameras-olympus-canon.html) iPhone lenses for point-and-shoot cameras and even Polaroids. After pandemic years of being cooped up with gadgets, spending on IRL experiences like travel and dining is soaring. But if anyone can make headsets succeed, it could be the company that got the world hooked on its ecosystem of hardware and apps. 

Apple could (finally) launch its mixed-reality headset, but the reality of success looks iffy

__Downward dog days…__ Athleisure icon __[Lululemon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LULU/)__ was a pandemic winner as people donned its comfy sets for home workouts and couch chillouts. Lulu’s flexible fortunes continued well after Covid restrictions ended, but its luck might be stretching thin. While Lulu raised its sales expectations, investors had a problem with its profit forecasts: 

- __Lulu shares sank 9%__ yesterday after it [said](https://www.wsj.com/articles/lululemon-warns-of-falling-fourth-quarter-margins-11673270772?mod=business_lead_pos2) that profit margins would shrink for its holiday quarter (ending January 29). It also issued disappointing earnings targets. 
- __Piles of styles:__ While Lulu said visits to stores and sites continued to grow, high inventory levels and markdowns could weigh on its bottom line. 
- __$130 leggings now $70:__ Last quarter, Lulu had 85% more inventory than it did a year earlier. Also: over 40% of items were on sale in November, up 10%. 

__The mirror cracks…__ Discounted leggings aren’t Lulu’s only profit-draining problem. In July 2020, when stocks were soaring and athleisure sales were booming, Lulu [bought](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/q4J6y6mMs3jtkXwdTmJlG/articles/3H03bXAENNJQMZaqbIocvY/) home-fitness startup __Mirror__ for a cool $500M (its first acquisition). Think: a monthly workout subscription where trainers pump you up from a reflective screen (hence: mirror). Lulu’s CEO said that Mirror continues to be a drag on profits and is likely experiencing less adoption than anticipated.

Stretched

__Boom spending is a bust bug…__ What a company splurges on during healthy boom times can come back to bite it in a downturn (think: buying a __[BMW](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BMWYY/)__ when your portfolio’s soaring, then losing your job and still having to make payments). Lulu was far from the only one to make an optimistic splurge in 2020. One example: __[Salesforce](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CRM/)__ bought Slack for $28B when the good times were rolling. Last week it said it was cutting 10% of its workforce.

Lululemon’s winning stretch may be ending as markdowns and Mirrors weigh on profits

☎️ *Like calling all your new babysitter's references…*

Crypto loves anonymity. Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, used a pseudonym, and many advocates champion the asset class for financial privacy. That core principle runs headfirst into US-based exchanges' "know your customer" (aka KYC) obligations. Think: regulatory requirements to run customer-identity checks. Now, that tension's [come to a head](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/09/crypto-spending-compliance) as exchanges are hit with fines and crypto companies spend more on compliance. 

DEFI(NE)

Heard on the Block: "KYC"

Rolls-Royce sold a record number of cars last year at an average price of $534K

👓 Apple’s mixed vision

__Oh the weather outside is frightful…__ but the December jobs report is apparently delightful. Stocks rallied Friday after fresh labor data [showed](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/06/jobs-report-december-2022-nonfarm-payrolls-rose-223000-in-december-as-strong-jobs-market-tops-expectations.html) a slowdown in wage growth. Normally, that wouldn’t be a great sign, but in this “good is bad” economy it serves as more evidence that inflation is cooling. Read: the Fed’s rate-hiking crusade is working. 

- __*But also:*__ The job market’s still red hot. US employers added a stronger-than-expected 223K jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% (near historic lows). 

- __But *still*:__ Investors celebrated cooling wages, which can translate to cooling prices, which *could* translate to the Fed being less aggro with rate hikes. 

__Everyone’s worried about jobs…__ and no one’s worried about the job market? We’re seeing this paradox playing out: Americans are on edge over job security, but in November there were 1.7 openings for every available worker. Still, job growth is losing steam (employers are adding fewer roles each month) and mass layoffs are only heating up. 

- __Tech layoffs are happening at the fastest rate__ since the pandemic: last week __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ announced plans to lay off 18K+ employees and __[Salesforce](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CRM/)__ said it’s cutting 8K. Online styling service __[Stitch Fix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SFIX/)__ said it would let go of 20% of staff, while struggling crypto lender __Genesis__ slashed 30%.

- __Not just tech:__ While tech is a rate-sensitive industry, others like __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS/)__, Dodge maker __[Stellantis](https://robinhood.com/stocks/STLA/)__, and __[Redfin](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RDFN/)__ have announced big cuts.

About 125K US workers lost their jobs last year (Johannes Eisele/Getty Images)

Wrong

__The labor market needs to get more wrong to feel right…__ The strong job market is the last remnant of the pandemic-stimulus era (recall: near-zero interest rates, fat checks). Job data is a lagging indicator, and we’re finally starting to see hawkishness catch up to it. But Fed officials said they’d need to see *sustained* cooling before easing up on hikes — a scenario investors are hungry for. At least the trend is moving in the right (cough, wrong) direction.

Investors celebrated cooling wages, but the layoff-laden labor market’s still too hot for comfort

__Securing the vault…__ __[Chase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM/)__, __[Wells Fargo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WFC/)__, __[Bank of America](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BAC/)__, and __[Citi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/C/)__ kick off bank earnings this week, and all eyes are on lending. So far, higher rates have boosted banking profits, since banks are earning more on deposits and loans (think: mortgages). In October, Chase reported that quarterly revenue jumped 10% to $33B while profit surged 34%. Bank of America and Wells Fargo also topped revenue estimates. While economic woes could hurt loan demand, delinquencies are still low, and analysts expect more growth when banks report. 

__Ready for takeoff…__ As __[Southwest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LUV/)__ went into a tailspin, __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL/)__ soared. Last month the Atlanta-based airline predicted its earnings would nearly double this year from last, jetting past expectations. CEO Ed Bastian said the post-Covid travel boom hasn't petered out, as people prioritize “experiential” spending over material goods. Delta seems to believe the good times will keep rolling: it agreed to multiyear raises for pilots and is adding customer perks like free Wi-Fi. We'll see if the highflying industry optimism lands in reality when Delta reports. 

Coming up this week...

__Crypt*owned*…__ Customers of bankrupt crypto lender __Celsius__ got more bad news: a judge [ruled](https://www.wsj.com/articles/celsius-network-wins-ownership-rights-to-customer-crypto-deposits-11672865422?mod=business_minor_pos5) that the $4.2B in crypto they'd deposited into 600K interest-bearing accounts *belongs to Celsius*. Now those customers will be last in line to get repaid. The biz's terms of service, updated eight times, sealed the deal (lesson: *read the TOS*). The ruling could set the tone for customer compensation in other crypto-related bankruptcies (think: __FTX__, __BlockFi__). Meanwhile, the New York attorney general accused Celsius' founder of fraud.

__From phone screens to flat screens…__ stream-ification is coming for TV. Dongle icon __[Roku](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ROKU/)__ said it’s [launching](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5yKJ21nHWy8FlNAUn6e6yJ/articles/3ogaCF6xZxf0H3Cnahar5k/) its own “streaming-first” TV sets. It’s good timing: in July streamers got more TV view time than cable networks for the first time as cord-cutting continued — and 87% of US households had a streaming sub last year. While televisions aren’t likely to go the way of cable, they *could* play a key role in a future where consumers toggle between services like __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX/)__ and __[Disney+](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS/)__, changing streamers instead of channels. 

Stories we’re watching...

- __[Fold](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7aN8BRAzCXDnsbfVDy7Wtq/articles/6YKevppGSztYU76NseEC9p/):__ __[Bed Bath & Beyond](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BBBY/)__ shares plunged 47% last week after the embattled retailer said it might file for bankruptcy. OG category-killers are struggling to compete against online options (ahem, Amazon). 

- __[Elon](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2l0dURsrtymAdOJZNwh8A2/):__ __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA/)__ delivered a record 1.3M cars last year, but the stock posted its worst drop in over two years after #s fell shy of targets. Now investors worry Musk is too focused on __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR/)__ — to Tesla’s detriment. 

- __[Run](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7aN8BRAzCXDnsbfVDy7Wtq/articles/AJUGTZjQvUMrUwWVa1rPY/):__ __[Silvergate](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SI/)__, the bank that helped fuel the crypto boom, plans to cut 40% of its staff after wary customers pulled out $8.1B. Since Silvergate is a key crypto player, the wider industry could feel the fallout. 

Last week's highlights...

Investors celebrated cooling wages, but the layoff-laden labor market’s still too hot

For the first time since 2014, Google and Meta no longer have the majority of US digital ad spend

🇺🇸 Labor’s right wrong turn

__Throwing in the (bath) towel…__ Shares of __[Bed Bath & Beyond](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BBBY/)__ lost over a quarter of their value yesterday after the embattled retailer [said](https://www.npr.org/2023/01/05/1147067967/bed-bath-beyond-warns-that-it-may-not-keep-operating) it might file for bankruptcy. Refresher: BB&B has racked up big debts over the years and has struggled to attract new shoppers online and in stores. Now the home-goods legend says it may not have enough $$ to cover key expenses.

- __Looking back:__ In September, BB&B [announced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/70AWukI131xlHFLP88EM8T/articles/6EIEdveXK2qaTduU5Hv0ex/) lifeline plans to close 150 stores, slash 20% of its workforce, and raise $500M in financing. Update: it still needs help.
- __Moving forward:__ BB&B expects its net loss will soar 40% to $386M for the third quarter (which includes Black Friday). Q3 sales are forecast to sink 33% from last year.

__Private label, public problems…__ During the pandemic shopping boom, BB&B focused on creating private-label brands to compete with cheaper offerings from __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ and __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT/)__. Yet the pivot resulted in shoppers struggling to find recognizable brands they actually wanted (think: __[Keurigs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KDP/)__ and __KitchenAid__ mixers). Last year, BB&B said it had lost $175M in sales because of out-of-stock items. Now it’s still exploring non-bankruptcy options like restructuring and raising cash, but it could be too little too late.


So long to long coupons (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Fold

__Category-killers are getting killed…__ Old-school category-killers like __[Barnes & Noble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/bks)__, Blockbuster, and BB&B snatched sales from small businesses as they spread across America. BB&B *used* to be the go-to for dorm hauls and bathroom makeovers. Now shoppers have a wide variety of online retailers (cough, Amazon) to choose from, and OG category-killers are dying. Case in point: __Toys R Us__ filed for bankruptcy in 2017 and __[JCPenney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JCPNQ/)__ followed suit in 2020. 


Bed Bath & Beyond could go bankrupt as the coupon king loses its category-killer crown

__Mega bank run…__ The California bank that helped fuel the crypto boom is feeling crypto winter's wrath. __[Silvergate](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SI/)__ [announced](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-05/silvergate-tumbles-after-bank-posts-loss-fires-40-of-staff) yesterday that it's cutting 40% of its staff following an $8.1B bank run — which the biz says forced it to sell assets at a $718M loss to cover. That's more than its total profit since 2013 (ouch). That news, plus word that Silvergate's halting its digital-currency plans (down the drain: $196M spent on __[Facebook's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META/)__ Diem tech) led to a nearly 50% decline in Silvergate stock. Now its execs say the biz could be a takeover target.

 __High roller…__ with a low-key profile. Silvergate greases the crypto industry's wheels by helping big businesses move big bucks in and out of crypto platforms. 90% of the bank's deposits are crypto-related. It’s provided banking services to __[Coinbase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN/)__ and __Gemini__ and held deposits for both __[FTX](https://robinhood.com/crypto/FTT/)__ and its sister hedge fund, __Alameda Research__. Once it got into crypto, it blew up fast: by 2019 it served 1.6K miners, exchanges, and crypto custodians. As of last year, it held $16B in deposits — up from $2B in 2020. Now it’s blowing up again, in a bad way:

- __Crypt-no:__ Silvergate execs said yesterday that its customers were closing accounts and pulling out of crypto altogether. 
- __SBF’d:__ Last month lawmakers questioned the bank over any possible role in the loss of billions in FTX customer funds. 


__Big bets mean big risks…__ Silvergate put most of its eggs in the crypto basket, helping it grow from a relatively small SoCal bank to an industry player. But as crypto winter set in and investors ran for sunnier pastures, that basket has come back to bite it — and the wider industry could suffer from the fallout. Silvergate’s expected to report this month. 

Crypto mega bank Silvergate sheds staff and bails on digital-currency plans as customers pull out billions

- 🤹‍♀️ __Quirky…__ NFTs are [heading](https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/technology/hermes-and-the-metabirkins-creator-are-set-to-go-to-trial/) to a US court this month after luxury designer Hermès sued an artist over his digi assets depicting Birkin bags (meet: MetaBirkins). The trial could set the tone for how courts treat NFTs.

- 🪙 __Coins…__ A judge [ruled](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-judge-says-celsius-network-owns-most-customer-crypto-deposits-2023-01-05/) that bankrupt crypto lender __Celsius__ *owns* the $4.2B that customers deposited into 600K interest-bearing accounts (putting them last in line for repayment). Also, the NY attorney general [sued](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/05/technology/attorney-general-mashinsky-crypto.html) Celsius's founder, accusing him of fraud. 
- 🌶️ __Spicy…__ Sam Bankman-Fried [pleaded](https://www.wsj.com/articles/sam-bankman-fried-pleads-not-guilty-to-fraud-and-other-offenses-11672774004) not guilty to eight criminal charges related to __FTX’s__ collapse. His trial is scheduled to start in October, but two former colleagues have already pleaded guilty. 


NFTRIAL

Last year Ford sold, on average, one F-Series pickup every 49 seconds

🛀 Bed Bath & Bankrupt?

__The dongle has company…__ Ding-dong: it’s a TV. Streaming staple __[Roku](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ROKU/)__ is launching its own line of television sets. Refresher: Roku’s software-connected dongles are a cheaper alternative to Apple TV’s sleek black controllers. A third of America’s televisions run Roku software. But now it’s doubling down with its own small-screen hardware. 

- __Flat stream__: Roku aims to launch its TV lineup this spring, and it’s not skimping on options. Think: 11 models ranging from 24 to 75 inches, with prices starting at $119 all the way up to $999. 
- __Fire competition__: Fire Stick rival __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ began selling its Fire-branded 4K TVs in 2021 to Amazon-ify your streaming experience. Picture: telling Alexa to stream Amazon Prime on a Fire TV. 
- __Roku stock__ jumped 4% yesterday but is down 81% over the past year. It has struggled with an ad downturn and shrinking profit margins. FYI: Roku makes most of its $$ from ads on The Roku Channel and other channels. 

__Laptop < flat screen…__ Streaming accounted for only a fourth of America’s TV viewing time in mid-’21. Read: most Americans were streaming from their laptops or phones, not TV sets. Things have changed: in July streamers got more TV view time than cable networks for the first time. As cord-cutting continues, 87% of US households had a streaming sub last year.

Pre-dongle era (Lambert/Getty Images)

Dongle

__Streamers could replace channels…__ Companies like Roku and Apple are trying to make TV a streaming-first experience vs. a cable-first experience. Roku’s CEO said that its new TVs “are designed to be streaming first.” Instead of surfing channels, the goal is to have users toggling between streamers on Roku’s interface. TVs aren’t likely to go the way of cable; instead, they could play a key role in a future where consumers switch between __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX/)__, __[Disney+](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS/)__, __[Apple TV+](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL/)__, and other services — changing streamers instead of channels.

Dongle icon Roku unveils its own TVs as streamers vie to make television streaming-first

__Social net worth…__ The president of US crypto exchange __Gemini__, Cameron Winklevoss (refresher: sued Mark Zuckerberg over __[FB](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META/)__'s origins), has new public beef. On Monday, Winklevoss accused Barry Silbert, the CEO of crypto conglomerate __DCG__, of "unconscionable" behavior. Winklevoss says that DCG's crypto-lending subsidiary, __Genesis__, won't return $900M that belongs to his Gemini customers. He gave Silbert a Sunday deadline to commit to making his customers whole. 

- __Salad days:__ Earlier this year, Gemini customers could authorize the exchange to lend out their crypto to earn interest potentially as high as 8%. Gemini lent that crypto to Genesis, which lent it out again. 
- __Pallid haze:__ After __FTX__'s collapse in November, Genesis paused loan redemptions (aka repayments), leaving Gemini customers' money in limbo. 

__Crypto lending meets contagion…__ Crypto is a highly leveraged industry (think: using borrowed assets to make trades). So when big players implode, contagion can spread. Genesis isn't the only crypto lender to freeze up during crypto winter. In June, __Celsius__ paused redemptions on customer loans with advertised yields up to 18% — and filed for bankruptcy a month later. And in August, Singapore-based lender __Hodlnaut__ froze customer withdrawals. 

Drama

__Crypto stopped being polite…__ and started getting real. Crypto winter and subsequent contagion could deal final blows to the industry's WAGMI ("we're all gonna make it") ethos. Now, at the very real risk of not making it, it's every firm — and customer class-action lawsuit — for itself. Winklevoss' public calling out of Silbert "for the final time" is what happens when the crypto tide goes out and everyone scrambles for a boat. 


Gemini's Winklevoss issues a $900M deadline as contagion drama becomes dirty laundry

Elon Musk is the first person to lose $200B in wealth

📺 Roku’s TV revolution

__’Twas Elon-g year…__ Between launching rockets, running __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA/)__, and buying __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR/)__, it was a very long year for Elon Musk. Tesla kicked off the brand-spanking-new year by reporting its latest delivery numbers. The EV pioneer [unloaded](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2022-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html) 1M+ cars for the first time, but Wall Street wasn’t impressed with the final tally: Tesla stock plunged 12% yesterday — its worst drop in over two years.

- __Tesla Wrapped:__ Elon’s baby delivered a record 1.3M cars last year, up 40% from 2021. The impressive growth still fell shy of the 50% target Tesla had set. 
- __UnMuskular:__ Fourth-quarter deliveries were up 18% from the previous quarter, to 405K cars, disappointing analysts’ (already lowered) expectations. Demand for Teslas has softened as rising interest rates bite consumers.

__Less editing mode, more Ludicrous mode…__ Some investors saw the disappointing results as confirmation that Musk is too distracted with running Twitter — but Tesla’s year was a mixed bag of wins and losses:

- __Attraction:__ Tesla’s growth rate [beats](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/02/business/tesla-fourth-quarter-sales.html) all its major rivals, it’s one of the most profitable carmakers, and it’s boosting production at new digs in Texas and Germany.

- __Traction:__ Tesla had to halt production numerous times at its largest factory, in Shanghai, as China’s strict Covid policy continued. Meanwhile, electric-car maker BYD surpassed Tesla’s sales in China, casting doubt on its future dominance. 
- __Distraction?__ To some, Musk appears to have been preoccupied with revamping Twitter, which he bought in October for $44B. He sold billions worth of his Tesla shares to help finance the buyout.

Blue checkmarks on the brain? (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Distraction

__Doing the most comes at a cost…__ because even Elon Musk can’t be everywhere all at once. Last year Tesla stock sank 67% as many investors lost confidence in the company’s future. Some worry that Musk may be focusing too much energy on Twitter — to Tesla’s detriment. The billionaire entrepreneur also runs rocket company __SpaceX__, tunnel transportation enterprise __The Boring Company__, and brain-implant startup __Neuralink__.

Tesla unwraps a yearly record, but fails to deliver a confidence boost as Elon’s Twitter era takes focus

__The cancellation before Christmas…__ Holiday festivities may be over, but lots of travelers are still recovering from a __[Southwest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LUV/)__-flavored hangover. ICYMI: the Dallas-based airline [canceled](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/southwest-cancellations-stabilize.html) over two-thirds (think: 15K+) of its Christmas-week flights after a historic winter storm overwhelmed its operation systems and left hundreds of thousands of fliers stranded. The Department of Transportation said it’s investigating the meltdown and will hold Southwest accountable for reimbursing affected travelers. 

- __The good:__ On Monday, Southwest said its schedules were almost back to normal after it reduced capacity to recover from the cancellations.
- __The bad:__ There are still mountains of unclaimed luggage. Southwest is working with __[FedEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FDX/)__ and __[UPS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UPS/)__ to return lost bags.
- __The ugly:__ The fiasco could cost Southwest $700M after covering ticket refunds and expenses like hotels and rental cars.

__Old system, new snags…__ Airlines have been historically slow to adopt new software, because bugs can lead to grounded planes and passengers. Over the years Southwest’s pilot and flight-attendant unions have complained about the airline's outdated tech. They argued that it left the company vulnerable and that updating it should be a higher priority than shareholder perks (picture: dividends). Analysts expect the holiday tailspin to slash nearly a tenth of Southwest’s earnings when it reports this month.

Baggage

__Failure to upgrade can mean a major downgrade…__ Some experts say Southwest and other airlines have prioritized upgrading customer-facing systems (like: reservations and loyalty programs) over its back-end systems. While tech hiccups aren't usually a deal breaker in daily airline operations, they can be catastrophic when combined with outside disruptions like last month's massive storm. Southwest's fallout could spur other airlines to update their systems — or risk being grounded by customers.

Southwest’s holiday meltdown could cost it $700M — and serve as a cautionary tale for other airlines

📠 *Like an office worker endlessly scanning and uploading docs…*

Crypto lives on the blockchain, but some smart contracts depend on real-world (aka "off-chain") data. An oracle is a third party responsible for providing off-chain info like sports scores, weather, and the price of gold to smart contracts like prediction markets or digital casinos. Oracles are increasingly seen as a crypto security [weak spot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-28/crypto-trader-charged-with-fraud-in-110-million-alleged-mango-markets-scam).

Heard on the Block: "oracle"

Tesla unwraps an annual record, but fails to deliver an investor-confidence boost

80% of people who make a New Year’s resolution give up by mid-February

🚗 Tesla’s mixed delivery

- __AI gets (scary) creative…__ [Generative AI](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3WEG5SgBgeQScK91kmZwOc/articles/6gWjpZswZYcdRi0vcvZQos/), which can convert text prompts into images and articles, made a splash last year. __OpenAI__ [released](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1tqjd2M4HaTR4MDXIMoYcr/articles/7IJUQSHnMsihoZe3E8Wbv2/) its futuristic chatbot, ChatGPT, to the public last month, shortly after launching its image generator, DALL-E. The impressive tools caused shock and awe — *and* raised fears they could replace creative professions like copywriting and design (__Jasper__, a genAI tool used for marketing copy, hit a $1.5B valuation). Some teachers are convinced genAI will kill homework too. While unknowns abound, investment is booming as companies seek innovative ways to automate work. 

- __Crypto rediscovers its roots…__ The [collapse](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5oS3vfl3q3m34Ud64MuTOf/articles/6GVY28qbI5kcW4Y5gvzbIM/) of centralized crypto players like __FTX__ and __Celsius__ breathed life back into crypto's core conceit: decentralization. Decentralized exchanges (think: not run by a biz) like __[Uniswap](https://robinhood.com/crypto/UNI/)__ saw activity spike — briefly surpassing centralized __[Coinbase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN/)__ in ether trading — as people sought greater control of their crypto. Makers of self-custody hardware wallets (picture: no exchange needed) reported soaring sales, while decentralized-finance transaction volumes jumped 68% from October to November. The decentralized momentum could get a boost as bipartisan lawmakers push tighter crypto regs.

Jetsons vibes (MR.Cole_Photographer/Getty Images)

NEXT YEAR

The future is now…

- __Transpo goes auto…__ Transportation goes autonomous — of packages *and* people. First, drone deliveries could go mainstream. Last month __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ began dropping parcels with its Prime Air service. __[Walmart’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT/)__ expanding its DroneUp network while __[Google’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL/)__ Wing teamed up with __[Walgreens](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WBA/)__ for Dallas deliveries. Below the skies, autonomous freight trucks are expected to hit roads by next year. On the passenger side, __Cruise__ and __Waymo__ are boosting driverless rides in cities, while __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER/)__ and __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT/)__ partnered with __Motional__ to start robotaxi ride-hails next year. “Auto transpo” could ease driver shortages and backlogs.
- __A psychedelic renaissance...__ Psychedelic-drug startups (think: shrooms, LSD) have seen record investing in recent years as more health experts explore the benefits of hallucinogens. Last year, Johns Hopkins said one of its psychedelic treatments eased depression symptoms, and other experts say trippy treatments could help with anxiety and PTSD. While still illegal federally, psychedelics are decriminalized in [several](https://www.leafly.com/news/politics/where-are-psychedelics-legal-or-decriminalized-in-the-us) US cities and are approved for recreational use in Oregon and Colorado. Now the psychedelic-substances biz is predicted to grow 5X to $10B+ by 2027 — which would outpace the legal-pot industry.

IN FIVE YEARS

Around the corner…

- __The nuclear revolution…__ The future of clean energy could be nuclear. Last month scientists made a huge [breakthrough](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7BujElyo2t6JbWrNXJ6eKK/) after successfully using a nuclear-fusion reaction to generate 50% more energy than what was required for its creation — aka "net energy gain.” Nuclear fusion releases 4M times more energy than burning oil, coal, or gas and can unlock "virtually limitless" carbon-free power. While commercial use for fusion tech (think: electricity, heating homes) is still decades away, the overall market could be worth $40T down the road. It could be a green solution to prevent energy crises.
- __Central bank digital currencies take off…__ Last year the Treasury Department kicked the [CBDC](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1A2u0znpU82FzymAPSjQXf/articles/1L1NHg7KzXFnkMFjrjfx21/) can down the road, saying it would reevaluate the need for a government-backed digital dollar (possibly powered by crypto) in 5+ years. When it does, it may need to play catch-up. China began its CBDC test in 2020, India started testing one last year, and the European Central Bank says it's looking into CBDCs. Meanwhile, the Fed is set to launch a real-time interbank payments system this year, which suggests a digital payments overhaul of some kind is already in the works.

IN 10+ YEARS

Down the road…

6 trends that could shape the futuristic economy, from creative AI to drone deliveries

India is set to overtake China as the most populous country by 2030