__’Tis the season to splurge…__ and inflation-stressed US shoppers still have the urge: shoppers spent a [record](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/26/black-friday-online-sales-top-9-billion-in-new-record.html) $9B online on Black Friday, and yesterday’s Cyber Monday sales were expected to hit a record $11B. Thanks partly to deep discounts, sales of __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL/)__ MacBooks, __Dyson__ gadgets, drones, and gaming consoles soared, while toy sales quadrupled. 

- __Mobile mania:__ Consumers did nearly half their Black Friday shopping from their phones — a new record.
- __Buy now, pay later__ payments rose 78% from the previous week as consumers continued to grapple with high prices.

__Holiday hype may not last…__ Strong post-Thanksgiving sales were a bright spot for retailers, which had given cloudy forecasts for this holiday season: __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT/)__, __[Macy’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/M/)__, __[Nordstrom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JWN/)__, and others reported slow sales in October and early November as consumer sentiment dipped. Now retailers are trying to unload their inventory — and stay rid of it:

- __Deeper discounts:__ This year the average Black Friday discount ticked up to 30%+, __[Salesforce](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CRM/)__ data showed. Translation: retailers want to ditch piles of summer goods.
- __Stricter returns:__ About 60% of retailers surveyed are adopting stricter policies to cut costs (think: fewer free returns).

The store might be empty, but the e-cart is full (Leonardo Munoz/Getty Images)

Click

__More sales ≠ more profits…__ because discounts mean slimmer margins. Despite this past week’s strong (cough, inflated) sales, analysts actually expect holiday sales to fall this season when adjusted for inflation — which would be the first holiday drop since 2009. That could spell tough times ahead for mega-retailers like Target and __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT/)__, which may end up with punier profits if they’re forced to keep slashing prices to move merch.

Black Friday sales break online records as Americans keep click-shopping while margins get slimmer

__Eruptions in the east…__ From Beijing to Shanghai, thousands of Chinese residents took to the streets (and social media) over the weekend to protest the country’s strict zero-Covid policies. Some called for President Xi to step down. China has extended lockdowns and tightened restrictions in certain areas after reporting 253K+ Covid cases over the past three weeks. Now things may be reaching a breaking point: 

- __On Thursday__ a fire in China's western city of Urumqi killed 10 people trapped in a high-rise building, which was under partial lockdown and reportedly [inaccessible](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/26/asia/xinjiang-urumqi-china-lockdown-protests-intl-hnk/index.html) to first responders.
- __It’s a big deal:__ The deadly fire sparked mass protests to Xi’s authoritarian government on a scale not seen in decades.
- __In markets, stocks sank yesterday__ while oil fell to its lowest level since January, as investors feared that China’s domestic conflict could jolt the global economy.

__The Covid fallout…__ Earlier this month China said it would ease some quarantine rules to curb the economic damage. But its plans have been thwarted by outbreaks in 80 of its cities, which generate half of China’s GDP. It’s hurting the economy:

- __Last month,__ China’s retail spending shrank by 0.5% from a year ago, the first decline since May. Meanwhile, China's exports dropped for the first time since 2020.
- __China's economy is expected to__ grow about 3% this year — nearly half of the 5.5% expected in March.

Fallout

__China could be at a tipping point…__ While its strict Covid policy has crippled global supply chains and companies including Apple, it’s affecting Chinese citizens the most. Though some analysts say the unrest could cause Xi to crack down even further, others are optimistic that the protests could spur the government to unwind some of its policies.

China's “zero-Covid” protests send jitters through global markets as the second-largest economy falters

🤧 *Like when your coworker shows up to the office with the flu…*

Because crypto's so [interconnected](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5oS3vfl3q3m34Ud64MuTOf/articles/6GVY28qbI5kcW4Y5gvzbIM/), one big incident (like a bankruptcy or hack) can act as a "contagion" spreading across the industry and getting others sick. Case in point: crypto lender BlockFi filed for [bankruptcy](https://www.wsj.com/articles/blockfi-files-for-bankruptcy-as-latest-crypto-casualty-11669649545) yesterday, citing "significant exposure" to the contagion of bankrupt exchange __FTX__.

DEFI(NE)

Heard on the Block: "contagion"

Black Friday sales break online records as shoppers click-splurge — but margins are slimmer

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano — the world’s largest active volcano — is erupting for the first time since 1984

📦 Black Friday goes cyber

__MVP of the season…__ “companion content.” Sports shows like __Netflix’s__ “Drive to Survive” (about Formula 1 racers) have become hugely popular as younger sports fans seek new ways to engage. Now, more media giants are looking to capitalize on the companion-content craze: 

- __Working overtime:__ This month __Amazon__ struck a deal to stream games of high-school b-ball league __Overtime Elite__ on Prime — and produce a companion docu-series.
- __Hail Maverick:__ Also this month, the NFL teamed up with __Skydance Media__ (the studio behind “Top Gun: Maverick”) to make original sports content like docs and shows. 

__Getting in the game…__ is more important — and more expensive — than ever. As __Netflix__, __Amazon__, __Apple__, __Disney__, and __Comcast__-owned Peacock compete for streaming supremacy, they’ve struck pricey live-broadcasting deals with the NFL, MLB, and MLS to attract subscribers. The amount paid for US sports broadcasting rights surpassed $21B this year, a 26% jump from 2019.

- __Bidding bonanza:__ Netflix recently lost its bid for Formula 1 streaming rights to Disney, which lost a *separate* bid for Indian cricket rights.
- __Joining the little leagues:__ To save money, Netflix has reportedly considered streaming more niche sports like pro surfing and cycling.
- __More bang for less buck:__ For streaming titans, sports-adjacent content could bring the popularity of live sports without the big broadcasting price tag.

A winning formula? (Jeff Spicer/Getty Images)

Punt

__Adjacency = opportunity…__ because fans love to get up close and personal with their favorite stars. Social-media-adjacent businesses like __OnlyFans__, __Patreon__, and __Cameo__ succeeded by giving superfollowers an exclusive peek (beyond the social page). Gaming-adjacent Twitch took off by giving fans interactive access to top gamers with livestreams. Streaming giants are betting on sports-adjacent content for the same reason: they know fans love getting an inside look. 

The NFL and Amazon invest in sports-adjacent content to lure fans with “companion” shows

__Like an Advent calendar…__ Instead of chocolate, the surprise is labor market #s. On Friday, the Labor Department will release unemployment data for November. In October, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% and stocks reacted positively (bad news = good news). While unemployment’s still near historic lows, we saw a fresh wave of layoffs this month,  from Twitter to Amazon to __Meta__ (__Google__ might be [next](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/11/21/alphabet-seeks-to-cut-10000-poor-performing-googlers/?sh=79725c8e2704)). But tech openings are still above prepandemic levels, and widespread layoffs across industries remain low. That could be changing: last week’s jobless claims hit their highest level since August. 

__Not-so-silver cloud lining…__ Shares of __Salesforce__, __Snowflake__, and __Workday__ have lost nearly half their value this year as higher interest rates curb cloud spend. Salesforce's revenue rose 22% last quarter, but it cut its full-year forecast as the strong US dollar (and slowing demand) pressure profits. But as tech layoffs pile up, companies are still investing in cloud software to help them do more with less. Cloud spend is forecast to grow 21% next year, but analysts aren’t expecting breakthrough results when the cloud companies report this week.

Events

Coming up this week...

__Status-symbol cuffs are in…__ Despite global gloom, luxury jewelers like __Cartier__, __Bulgari__, and __Tiffany__ are growing as branded bling booms. Last year the luxe jewelry market grew 7% from prepandemic totals. Bulgari’s planning to double production at its massive Italian jewelry factory, and Cartier is looking to open two new plants next year. Even fashion-focused __Prada__ is launching its first jewelry collection. Branded pieces like Cartier Love bracelets are driving demand more than nameless gems.

__FTX-tra messy…__ Lawyers for bankrupt crypto exchange __FTX__ went to court last week to explain just how bad the company's books are. Think: a "[substantial amount](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftx-lawyer-says-substantial-amount-of-crypto-firms-assets-stolen-or-missing-11669134521)" of customers' crypto was stolen or is just straight up missing — *that* kind of bad. The Bahamian-based exchange owes $3B+ to its top 50 creditors (but hasn't publicly identified them). If they're institutional players (like crypto lenders), that bad debt could supercharge [contagion](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5oS3vfl3q3m34Ud64MuTOf/articles/6GVY28qbI5kcW4Y5gvzbIM/). Meanwhile, customer funds remain frozen, and experts say sorting through FTX's mess could take years.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

- __[Bobs](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2GLZub1cHXTZXSoOZHM85W/articles/2XkVuT54tkaSmCn0gj9trv/):__ The old Bob gets his old job: Disney icon Bob Iger shocked the entertainment industry by announcing his return as CEO (Bob Chapek is out). The surprise move proves brand makers are hard to replace. 
- __[Offside](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2GLZub1cHXTZXSoOZHM85W/articles/4QHnAyVtv5SFiECOs7aUuh/):__ World Cup host Qatar has kicked off controversy, from anti-LGBTQ+ moves to alcohol bans in stadiums. Despite vocal opposition, sponsors like __Budweiser__ and __Adidas__ aren’t willing to ditch one of the world’s top advertising opportunities. 
- __[Fitch](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/XD4mGtAm3M6SA5C4JIHfC/articles/3ldFSDbQ9YlRuEnW9XhkTk/):__ __Abercrombie's__ back with a cologne-scented vengeance: Abercrombie and __American Eagle__ shares soared last week after the tween-friendly retailers posted uplifting results as they overhauled inventories.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

The 2022 World Cup is expected to attract 5B viewers, up from 3.5B in 2018

🏈 Streamers’ sports-verse

__Stop trying to make Fitch happen…__ It’s already happening. __[Abercrombie & Fitch](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ANF/)__ was long known for overpowering cologne scents, shirtless mall models, and a [dubious](https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/new-netflix-documentary-takes-down-abercrombie-fitch-n1294716) corporate culture. In the early 2000s, it was the go-to “cool brand” for tweens everywhere. Then Abercrombie logos became very *un*cool and it fell off the map. After a major rebrand focused on inclusivity, Abercrombie’s back with a denim-twinged vengeance: 

- __Abercrombie shares surged 20%__ yesterday after it reported a surprise quarterly profit and beat sales expectations as demand for office jeans and date dresses rebounded. 
- __That’s so Fitch:__ While Abercrombie’s global sales ticked down, US sales were up from last year and its namesake brand saw 10% global growth. 
- __Cali casual < East Coast chic:__ Hollister makes up more than half of Abercrombie’s total sales, but revenue for the casual sister brand fell 12%.

__Pre-Black Friday flex…__ Abercrombie isn’t the only retailer wowing investors with its preholiday quarter. __[American Eagle](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AEO/)__ stock soared 17% yesterday after the Aerie-owner beat quarterly profit estimates while toning down its inventory levels (think: higher markdowns). AE’s inventory was up just 8% from last year, compared to *36%* in the previous quarter. While sales and profits at AE and Abercrombie fell, right-sizing inventory helped them exceed expectations.

The old Fitch (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Model

__Black Friday is an opportunity…__ for retailers to get their inventories right. First, the problem was too *little* merchandise as pandemic supply-chain snags collided with rebounding demand. Then it was too *much* merch as inventories recovered while demand sagged (picture: piles of unsold summer dresses in December). AE expects this holiday season to be “highly promotional,” which reduces profit margins. But clearing out supplies can help retailers stay relevant with shoppers — and reduce profit-draining overstock long term.

Abercrombie and American Eagle post uplifting results ahead of Black Friday as inventory trends improve

__Giving thanks with Uncle Bob Evans…__ Thanksgiving traditions are being tested this year with high food prices [bumping](https://www.axios.com/2022/11/22/thanksgiving-restaurants-dining-turkey-inflation-takeout) the cost of a home-cooked feast by 20%. It's more than just pricey potatoes: according to a __[Wells Fargo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WFC/)__ analysis, when you factor in cooking and cleaning time, dining out on Thanksgiving might be a better deal than hosting. Inflation-weary shoppers are taking note, even if they don't want to make a resto reservation: 

- __A home-*delivered* meal:__ 45% of surveyed consumers plan to order in at least some of their Thanksgiving eats (think: less family recipe apple pie, more Applebee's).
- __Green bean coupons:__ Chains like __[Chipotle](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CMG/)__, __[Bob Evans](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BOBE/)__, __[Ruth's Chris Steak House](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RUTH/)__, and KFC are pushing Thanksgiving promos to lure shoppers on the side-dish sidelines.

__A night on the town is a treat…__ but a night on the couch is no steal, either. While dining out is typically still pricier than eating in, inflation hasn't struck evenly across the cutting board. The cost of eating out has jumped less than 9% from last year, but the cost of groceries is up more than 12%. In other words, the *relative* value of ordering turkey takeout this Thanksgiving (versus buying a raw bird) has increased.

Gobble

__Versatility is a secret sauce…__ Restaurants are well served for success this holiday season because they have scale *and* speed. Big chains like __[Yum Brands'](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YUM/)__ KFC can lock in supply deals in advance, helping them weather inflation's storm. Meanwhile, mom-and-pop joints can more quickly shift ingredients and menu prices as costs dictate. With food prices expected to continue rising next year, restos will need to lean on flexibility.

Turkey takeout rules the roost as food ’flation makes eating out a holiday deal

Abercrombie and American Eagle shares soar ahead of Black Friday as inventory woes ease

The Pakistani city of Sialkot produces about 70% of the world’s soccer balls — including the official ball of the 2022 World Cup

👖 Abercrombie is Fitch again

__“Game of Thrones: Magic Kingdom” edition…__ __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS/)__ icon Bob Iger shocked the entertainment industry by announcing he’d return as chief exec for two more years. Iger had stepped down as CEO in 2020 and was replaced by then head of parks Bob Chapek. In June, Disney's board voted to extend Chapek's CEO contract until 2025. But internal complaints from senior execs reportedly prompted a U-turn. Now, Disney’s ousting Chapek while the board looks for a more permanent replacement.

- __“Succession” IRL:__ Conflicting loyalties may’ve played a role, because Chapek and his inner circle were said to be caught off guard by the decision. 
- __Disney shares jumped 6%__ yesterday, but are down 38% this year. Disney execs say Iger is "uniquely situated" to direct the company at this time.

__Mouse House divided…__ Though Chapek helped Disney survive the pandemic, his tenure featured some public controversies. Last year Scarlett Johansson launched a lawsuit against Disney claiming breach of contract for “Black Widow.” In April, Chapek narrowly avoided a worker revolt following his delayed response to Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill.

- __On the #s side:__ Disney stock experienced its biggest plunge in 21 years this month after its park and resorts revenue underwhelmed and profit disappointed.
- __Disney+ added__ more subs than forecast, but Disney’s streaming biz posted nearly $1.5B in operating losses.

Old Bob is new Bob with his old job (Michael Loccisano/Getty Images)

Bobs

__Brand makers are hard to replace…__ Iger spent 15 years growing Disney into Hollywood's most powerful media conglomerate. That's the kind of household-name leadership that investors and execs like to bank on in a downturn. We’ve seen it before: Steve Jobs returned to __[Apple's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL/)__ helm in 1997 after 12 years away, and __[Starbucks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SBUX/)__ founder Howard Schultz returned in April as interim CEO.

Bob Iger’s surprise comeback as Disney CEO proves brand makers are hard to replace

__Kicking themselves…__ Sponsors are losing the PR game at the FIFA World Cup. In the years leading up to this tournament, host country Qatar has been [criticized](https://www.axios.com/2022/11/21/world-cup-qatar-controversy) over corruption, exploitative labor practices, and its anti-LGBTQ+ laws (homosexuality is illegal there). Controversy escalated this week after FIFA threatened teams who were planning on wearing rainbow armbands in support of the LGBTQ+ community, while Qatar banned beer sales at stadiums. 

- __Sponsors = hit hard:__ __[AB InBev](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BUD/)__-owned Budweiser, the World Cup’s exclusive beer partner since 1986, paid $75M to sponsor this tourney but now won’t be able to sell alcohol (it’ll sell booze-free Bud Zero instead).
- __FIFA = unfazed.__ Soccer’s governing body, FIFA, made a record $7.5B from 2022 sponsors (FYI: FIFA officials have been charged with accepting Qatar-related bribes).

__Hot-button hosts…__ are nothing new. The organizers of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and the 2018 World Cup in Russia were also criticized for ignoring local human-rights abuses. Now, 2022 World Cup sponsors like __[Coke](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO/)__, __[McDonald’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD/)__, __[Visa](https://robinhood.com/stocks/V/)__, Hyundai, and __[Adidas](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ADDYY/)__ are getting heat for participating despite Qatar’s human-rights record. Meanwhile, “anti-sponsors” are on the rise: 

- __UK brewery BrewDog__ [launched](https://www.brewdog.com/uk/anti-sponsor-qatar) flashy ad campaigns and special brews condemning Qatar, but has itself been criticized for signing a beer-distribution agreement with the country. 

B(ad)

__Eyeballs may matter more than mouths…__ when it comes to corporate profits. Despite vocal opposition to Qatar’s conduct, none of the World Cup’s 70+ major sponsors have backed out. Few are willing to ditch one of the world’s top advertising opportunities: this year’s Cup is expected to attract a record-shattering 5B viewers (aka: more than half of all humans).

As World Cup host Qatar kicks off more controversy, Budweiser and other sponsors stay the course

📜 *Like a crypto constitution, but the founders are anonymous…*

Crypto and blockchains come from somewhere. At the most basic level, that somewhere is often a white paper. Typically, white papers are foundational documents laying out technical specifications and core principles of a new cryptocurrency or blockchain. The __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC/)__ [white paper](https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf) was first published 14 years ago by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto.

Heard on the Block: "white paper"

Gamblers are expected to wager over $160B on the World Cup

🏰 Disney’s Battle of the Bobs

__One-two contagion punch…__ As the crypto industry reels from __FTX's__ [collapse](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2jedAlq0iN3kyZjhRJ7QXZ/articles/1enAKmQ2NnWWzq409J1MHk/), the billion-dollar question is, who might be next? We may know soon, as __BlockFi's__ [reportedly](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-16/blockfi-said-to-plan-imminent-bankruptcy-filing-amid-ftx-fallout) planning to file for bankruptcy. The crypto lender, which held nearly $4B in customer assets, paused withdrawals this month, citing "significant exposure to FTX." It also had loans out to __Alameda Research__, FTX's so-called sister firm. It's not the first time contagion’s come for BlockFi:

- __Terra-part:__ The TerraUSD stablecoin [melted down](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/CZLtSSO02dkWUNfYSsz7D/articles/40vJyepmLGsyVSkxrAJx2M/) in May, wiping out $40B in investor value. The resulting chaos felled crypto hedge fund __Three Arrows Capital__ (3AC), which in turn threatened BlockFi, which had made loans to 3AC.
- __FTXtra Life:__ BlockFi was saved partly by a $400M credit line from FTX. Now FTX might be its undoing. 

__FTX's bankruptcy is a powerful blow…__ because crypto is a highly leveraged industry (think: using borrowed assets to make trades). That causes ripple effects when big players fall. __Liquid__, an exchange that FTX acquired this year, froze withdrawals last week. Crypto lender __Genesis__ suspended new loans and redemptions. __Gemini__, the Winklevoss-helmed exchange that used Genesis to offer a yield product, also paused some redemptions. Retail exchange Genesis Block said on Friday that it would cease trading. And there's fear contagion could spread even further:

- __Crypto.com__ (picture: Matt Damon Super Bowl ads, Lakers’ stadium-naming rights) tried to reassure investors it would not follow FTX. 
- __Nine exchanges__ now say they'll offer up "[proof of reserves](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2jedAlq0iN3kyZjhRJ7QXZ/articles/5LZm0DXxBdnT4jdK7CApd8/)" to show they still have customers' assets.

Coin-tagion (Chesnot/Getty Images)

Sneeze

__Contagion thrives because crypto's interwoven…__ with leverage as the thread. If a crypto lender or exchange lends its customers' assets to a hedge fund (like: 3AC or Alameda), which then uses those assets to generate yield (aka: earn crypto interest) and make potentially risky bets… one wobbly domino risks toppling the whole lot. FTX’s bankruptcy isn’t the end of this story: __Binance__ CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao says he’s "very worried" about some forms of crypto leverage — and [regulators](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5vc5yehi8D6UyFME7P6v6r/articles/u28ZR9jrs0HLSaD0qErHN/) are on high alert.

FTX “contagion” spreads, highlighting the crypto industry's interdependence

__“Power casual” [Lulu](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LULU/) fit…__ Workers are slowly returning to offices, and there’s less room for __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM/)__. While office occupancy is still lower than prepandemic, 88% of employers are offering workers incentives to return IRL. The number of workers returning to cubicles is rising, and 9 in 10 companies surveyed said they planned to require workers in offices (at least part time) by 2023. That hurts pandemic powerhouses like Zoom, which reports today. Last quarter it cut its sales forecast as growth majorly slowed from the pandemic Zoom boom.

__Forks up, sweatpants on…__ wallets out. Thanksgiving is on Thursday, but grocery prices are already eating into budgets. A third of Americans plan to spend less on their feasts this year, with the average meal for 10 hitting $64, up 20% from last year. Turkey is up 21% while stuffing mix has soared 70%. Some retail giants are gaining customers by keeping prices (relatively) low: __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT/)__ says it’s keeping Thanksgiving meal prices the same as last year, and more higher-income shoppers turned to the retailer last quarter for discounts.

Events...

Coming up this week

__Ready for flu szn…__ As Americans look for easily accessible healthcare, retailers are racing into the industry. Last week __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ launched its first virtual healthcare clinic to treat patients for everything from allergies to acne. Amazon also agreed to buy clinic chain __[One Medical](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ONEM/)__ in July. Last year, __[Walgreens](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WBA/)__ took a $5B stake in VillageMD and is now opening an average of one clinic every three days. Meanwhile, __[CVS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVS/)__ has grown its HealthHUBs, where shoppers can meet with medical pros in stores. Retailers could help capture 30% of the primary-care market by 2030. 

__Credit cards are red hot…__ because swiping is *soaring*. Card balances rose 15% last quarter from last year — the fastest jump in two decades — as cash-strapped shoppers leaned on plastic for inflated expenses. But as the Fed hikes rates, IOUs have gotten pricier: some cards have interest rates of 30%+ (translation: a $1K purse would cost $700+ in annual *interest* if you didn’t pay off the full balance on time). With 60% of Americans now living paycheck to paycheck, historically low delinquency rates are starting to rise.

- __[Swift](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5vc5yehi8D6UyFME7P6v6r/articles/5r2wLR5a5WqbnjdLLxxeP4/):__ T-Swift’s world tour crashed Ticketmaster as millions of fans (and resellers) rushed to the __[Live Nation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYV/)__-owned platform. Swifties may have bad blood, but Live Nation’s music dominance makes it hard to escape. 
- __[Hunt](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2mdUwkwlkcBgMX8vZOTUP/articles/3bE3btkX7UxXzJSURZiUif/):__ As more shoppers “treasure hunt” for bargains, discount retailers like Marshalls owner __[TJX](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TJX/)__ and __[Ross](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ROST/)__ are humming along — while mid-tier (not discount, not luxe) chains like __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT/)__ and __[Kohl’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KSS/)__ suffer. 
- __[3BR](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2mdUwkwlkcBgMX8vZOTUP/articles/3YKml8vvfQzRLMGQotIps4/):__ As wild mortgage rates and prices depress home-buying demand, __[JPMorgan](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM/)__ said it’ll build $1B worth of single-family homes for renters. With mortgage revenue down, JPM hopes to capitalize on the “rent-aissance.”

Federally owned Amtrak hasn’t earned a profit in its five-decade history

🦠 Crypto contagion

__Found a $30 [Michael Kors](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KORS/) bag…__ under a shoe rack. __[TJX](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TJX/)__ — the discount retailer behind TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods — is humming along as consumers scour its aisles for cute deals. This week, TJX beat quarterly sales expectations and boosted its outlook, because there’s no better feeling than finding perfectly fitting __[Levi’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LEVI/)__ for $11 after hours of scavenging. 

- __The “exciting treasure-hunt shopping experience”__ is still resonating, TJX’s CEO said. Same-store sales at Marshalls and TJ Maxx were up 3%. And while the S&P 500 is down nearly 18% for the year, TJX stock is also up 3%.
- __Dress for less:__ Yesterday, rival rack-rummaging destination __[Ross](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ROST/)__ also delivered better-than-expected results, despite declining sales and profit. Shares popped 13% after it issued higher-than-anticipated guidance for the holidays.

__It’s the “affordable splurge” vibes for me…__ and the unaffordable splurge for others. While discount retailers are banking on low prices, luxury retailers are enjoying resilient demand. Bloomingdale’s owner __[Macy’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/M/)__ raised its annual profit forecast as higher-income shoppers scooped up designer blazers and fancy beauty products. Macy’s isn’t the paragon of luxury, but it does stock more luxe goods than department rivals like __[Kohl’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KSS/)__. Interestingly: 

- __While Macy’s same-store sales were down__ for the quarter, its higher-end brands grew. Bloomingdale’s revenue was up 5%. Meanwhile…
- __Its luxury beauty retailer, Bluemercury,__ enjoyed *14%* sales growth as shoppers splurged on pricey serums and designer foundations.

The unmatched thrill of bargain-hunting (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Hunt

__The middle is an awkward spot…__ during an economic downturn. Lower- and middle-income consumers are moving downmarket to discount retailers like TJX and __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT/)__, while wealthier consumers are sticking with luxury brands. Meanwhile, more middle-of-the-road retailers are hurting: this week Kohl’s withdrew its annual forecast after sales fell 7% and __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT/)__ cut its holiday outlook as demand slackened.

As more shoppers bargain-hunt, TJ Maxx and Marshalls grow while “in-between” retailers suffer

__Big Banks join the rent-aissance…__ Fewer people are buying houses, so banks are shifting their focus from home loans to rental properties: this week __[JPMorgan](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM/)__ [said](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/jpmorgan-forms-new-joint-venture-for-1-billion-in-rental-houses) it’s teaming up with property giant __Haven Realty Capital__ to build $1B worth of single-family homes for renters. As US homes sales continue sliding, JPM is preparing for a rental surge:

- __Bettin’ on the ’burbs:__ JPM and Haven plan to buy 250 “built to rent” homes in the Atlanta area, and then develop entire communities of new suburban rental homes.
- __Renting, revamped:__ Last month, JPM started testing a platform that aims to help landlords digitize monthly rental payments — 78% of which are still paid by check. 

__Renting is the new buying…__ because many can’t afford to buy right now. Mortgage rates have more than doubled in the past year, making the long-term cost of homeownership prohibitive for many. While banks are earning higher interest, mortgage demand has plunged 40% from a year ago.

- __It’s bad for buyers…__ *and* for banks: JPM issued $15B of mortgage loans last quarter — 46% less than a year ago. JPM laid off mortgage workers this year as slumping revenue dented profits.
- __Rival [Wells Fargo’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WFC/)__ mortgage volume has fallen 90% since last year, and it’s also laid off mortgage workers. __[Rocket Mortgage](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RKT/)__, __[Redfin](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RDFN/)__, and __Better.com__ have also cut staff, and some mortgage startups have gone bankrupt.

__It pays to be pragmatic…__ JPM could capitalize on America’s housing-affordability crisis by capturing a new generation of renters. Builders first popularized the build-to-rent model during the Great Recession as a way to keep building even when people weren’t buying. Now builder confidence is at its lowest level since 2012, thanks to soaring rates and construction material costs. By shifting strategy banks could see another build-to-rent boom.

JPMorgan invests $1B in rental homes as pricey houses kick off an American rent-aissance

- __🧹Messy…__ Former __FTX__ CEO Sam Bankman-Fried apparently cursed regulators in a DM-based [interview](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-cryptocurrency-effective-altruism-crypto-bahamas-philanthropy) with Vox and said his "biggest" mistake was filing for bankruptcy. Meanwhile, FTX's new CEO called the mess "[unprecedented](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ceo-overseeing-ftx-restructuring-calls-it-an-unprecedented-mess-11668707836)" (and he oversaw the Enron bankruptcy). 
- __🌶️ Spicy…__ An FTX investor is [suing](https://variety.com/2022/digital/news/ftx-lawsuit-larry-david-tom-brady-stephen-curry-crypto-1235434627/) Larry David, Tom Brady, and Steph Curry, among others, alleging their paid promotions for the now bankrupt crypto exchange lured "unsophisticated investors" into a "Ponzi scheme." 
- __🤖 Techy…__ Crypto hardware wallet makers __Ledger__ and __Trezor__ saw booming sales last week after FTX froze customer withdrawals. Hardware wallets let crypto “hodlers” self-custody their coins (no exchange required).

SBF'D

The Crypto Catch-Up…

Average 401(k) balances fell for the third straight quarter, down 23% from last year

🛍️ Marshalls’ treasure-hunt win

__Alexa, play “Bad Blood”…__ Taylor Swift fans have major beef with Ticketmaster. On Tuesday, the __[Live Nation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYV/)__-owned ticket platform suffered outages after *millions* of Swifties tried buying tickets to Taylor’s 2023 “Eras” tour, her first in five years. Presale tix were going for $49 to $500 on Ticketmaster, but resellers quickly began listing seats for as much as $21K+ on third-party sites like __StubHub__. Some police stations warned fans about a surge in ticket scammers.

- __Fans said__ they were forced to wait hours for site access — and many still couldn't complete their transactions, despite having a presale code.
- __Ticketmaster said__ the problems were a result of “historically unprecedented demand,” and it extended the presale event for an extra day.
- __FYI:__ Swift’s “Midnights” became __[Spotify’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT/)__ most-streamed album in a single-day when it dropped last month.

__Pop-star performances…__ at Super Bowl prices. The live-music industry has had a show-stopping comeback since the pandemic hit. Last quarter, Live Nation’s revenue climbed 63% from 2019, and it’s on pace to notch record ticket sales this year. But as more Americans splurge on experiences over objects, concert prices have surged nearly 15% from prepandemic. It's good news for Ticketmaster, which is said to make up 70%+ of ticketing services for major venues like __[Madison Square Garden](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSGS/)__.

It’s hard to shake it off (John Leyba/Getty Images)

Swifties

__It's hard to be a hater of the top player…__ Music fans may be mad at Live Nation, but its live-music dominance makes it hard to escape. In January, Live Nation was accused of snubbing venues that didn’t use Ticketmaster. Meanwhile, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez [tweeted](https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1592587226801934336) that Ticketmaster was a "monopoly" after the Swift drama. But the backlash hasn’t curbed demand: Ticketmaster sales for 2023 shows are already on track to surpass this year’s.

T-Swift’s world-tour rush crashed Ticketmaster, highlighting the reach of Live Nation's concert empire

__Place your right hand…__ on the crypto white paper? Sam Bankman-Fried has been called to testify. The House Financial Services Committee said the __FTX__ founder is expected to [speak](https://decrypt.co/114816/house-committee-sbf-binance-testify-ftx-collapse) to lawmakers next month about his now bankrupt exchange's spectacular collapse. SBF was a regular on Capitol Hill, lobbying for centralized-exchange-friendly regulation. He spent $40M in the last election cycle, mostly on Democratic candidates and causes. Now the so-called wunderkind could be forced to explain how customer funds disappeared (reportedly up to $2B):

- __FTXtradition:__ American and Bahamian law enforcement (FTX is Bahamas-based) are said to be in talks to bring SBF to the US for questioning — separate from the House hearing. 

__Mr. SBF goes to Washington…__ but this time he’s in the hot seat. Before FTX imploded, lawmakers had been working on the SBF-favored Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA). The bipartisan bill would give commodities regulators (aka: the CFTC) additional crypto oversight. But critics said it would prop up centralized exchanges like FTX while hurting decentralized ones like __Uniswap__. Now the bill's future is in doubt:

- __SB-effed:__ The Blockchain Association, a crypto trade group, said the DCCPA has SBF's stink on it, and predicts elected officials will want to distance themselves. And yet…
- __Better than nothing:__ Sens. Debbie Stabenow and John Boozman, the bill's backers, are doubling down, saying FTX's fall hastens the need for regulation.

SBFED

__The sunk-cost fallacy is a powerful motivator…__ and so is embarrassment. FTX's bankruptcy left elected officials in an awkward position: do they push forward regulation once championed by crypto's now “[villain](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/technology/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-crypto-bankruptcy.html)” du jour, or walk away from months of efforts only to start anew? Stabenow and Boozman have chosen the latter. Meanwhile, __Binance’s__ CEO is also calling for regulation — just not through the DCCPA.

Lawmakers want SBF to testify as FTX's collapse puts crypto regulation in the spotlight

T-Swift’s world-tour rush crashed Ticketmaster, highlighting Live Nation's concert empire

NASA’s Artemis I rocket successfully launched yesterday, becoming the most powerful launch vehicle to ever lift off from Earth

🎤 T-Swift’s Ticketmaster drama

__Clear aisles, full carts, can’t lose…__ America’s largest retailer is seeing the bright side of dark times. __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT/)__ shares spiked 7% yesterday to a six-month high after it delivered surprisingly strong quarterly sales (up 8%) and boosted its forecast. The MVP of earnings: groceries. Kitchen staples like canned beans and hot dogs carried the quarter. 

- __In the cart:__ Food was the fastest-growing category with double-digit sales growth as more shoppers turned to Walmart for its “everyday low prices.” 
- __In the storeroom:__ Discretionary items like TVs, air fryers, and clothing were weak. On the plus side, Walmart unloaded some of its excess inventory piles. 
- __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT/),__ which reports today and is also a grocery go-to, could echo these trends. 

__$6 Hu chocolate to $1 [Hershey’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HSY/)…__ Americans are trading down. Walmart’s CFO said customers have been turning to less pricey protein sources like hot dogs, beans, and store-brand peanut butter. __[Tyson’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSN/)__ lackluster report this week confirmed that demand for premium beef and pork is dropping. But it’s not just lower-income customers trading down: 

- __More high-income customers__ turned to Walmart last quarter for cheaper groceries. 75% of its market-share gains in food came from households making $100K+. 
- __With grocery prices up 12%__ from a year ago, discount retailers like __[Dollar General](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DG/)__ and __[Grocery Outlet](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GO/)__ have also [gained](https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurendebter/2022/11/15/walmart-attracting-wealthier-customers-looking-for-cheaper-groceries-as-inflation-rages/?sh=447b83843e8d) wealthier customers. 
- __It’s a theme:__ In its latest earnings, __[McDonald’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD/)__ said it attracted more higher-income customers who opted for fast-food over pricier sit-down restaurants.

Seeing the cart as half full (Gilles Mingasson/Getty Images)

PB&J

__Tough times can be growth times…__ or an opportunity for big companies to grab a larger slice of the pie. Walmart gained US grocery market share as inflation spurred higher-income shoppers to browse its aisles. Corporate titans like Walmart, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__, and McDonald’s can afford to keep prices relatively low during downturns to grow their market share (McD’s did [just that](https://slate.com/business/2009/08/how-mcdonald-s-won-the-recession.html) in ’08) while smaller or pricier players could suffer.

Walmart stock spikes as higher-income shoppers boost its grocery market share

__Prefab(ulous) homes…__ coming to a lawn near you. This week __[Airbnb](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABNB/)__ cofounder Joe Gebbia [unveiled](https://www.wsj.com/articles/airbnb-co-founders-new-business-is-building-small-homes-in-backyards-11668414543) his newest venture, __Samara__, which plans to sell small homes for backyards. Samara’s accessory dwelling units (aka: ADUs) start at $289K for studios and $329K for one-bedrooms. Samara hopes homeowners will use its little abodes not just as rental properties but as extra space for themselves. 

- __Guest-house vibes:__ Each ADU has a spacious bathroom, kitchen, and washer/dryer. You can even splurge $10K for solar panels.
- __FYI:__ The mini homes will first be available in California, where new laws have made it easier for residents to build on their lots. But Samara has plans to expand.

__Back to WFMH…__ work from mom’s home. More Americans might start turning garages into guest houses as sky-high prices box out would-be buyers (average home sale price = $542K). As of July, more than half of young adults (age 18 to 24) were living with their parents. And last year nearly a fifth of Americans were living in multigenerational homes. As US housing affordability hits its lowest level since 2012, mini homes are gaining popularity: 

- __CA issued nearly 20K ADU__ building permits last year, up 58% from 2019. The US tiny-home market is expected to grow at a [record](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/tiny-homes-platform-market-to-record-a-yoy-growth-rate-of-3-88---technavio-identifies-north-america-as-key-market-301614953.html) pace this year.
- __Mobile homes are hot too:__ From 2016 to 2021, the median price of trailers surged 34%.

Cozy

__If you build it, they could come…__ Experts say there’s a nationwide housing shortage of up to 6M new homes. By one estimate, there’s room for 1.5M backyard homes in CA, which could help ease some of the state’s crunch. But with rising interest rates and inflation cutting into homeowner budgets, it could be a while before they become mainstream.

Airbnb cofounder launches a tiny-home biz to tackle California’s housing shortage as Americans are crunched for living space

Household debt grew at its fastest pace in 15 years last quarter as credit-card balances ballooned

🌭 Walmart’s hot-dog quarter

__Chilling in Miami with the heat…__ Not enjoying the Florida sunshine: FTX. The bankrupt crypto exchange had signed a 19-year, $135M deal for naming rights to the Miami Heat’s home arena last year. Now Miami-Dade County and its NBA team say they’re “immediately taking action” to [end](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/35004915/miami-heat-cut-ties-bankrupt-ftx-rename-home-arena) their relationship with FTX. The exchange had paid $14M up front and was scheduled to make a $5.5M payment in January.

- __Bye, FTX Arena:__ It’ll still be referred to as FTX Arena for Saturday’s Heat game, but social-media [pics](https://twitter.com/shiv2268/status/1591195099199049729) suggest the FTX logo is already being dismantled. 
- __Hi, [insert name here] Arena:__ Miami said it would work with the Heat to find a new naming-rights partner for the arena. 

__From the NBA to the MLB…__ FTX has a stacked portfolio of sports sponsorships. Last year, Major League Baseball signed a five-year deal to name FTX its official crypto-exchange partner (think: FTX.us patches on umpire uniforms).

- __Racing:__ FTX also had a long-term sponsorship deal with __[Mercedes’](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MBGYY/)__ Formula One team — that’s now been scrapped (no more FTX logos on F1 cars). 
- __Esports:__ FTX had struck a naming-rights deal with US esports giant __TSM__, among other esports players. Brazilian org Furia tweeted that it’s ending its deal with FTX. 
- __Football:__ Last year UC Berkeley struck a $17.5M, 10-year naming-rights deal with FTX for its football stadium. TBD if it’s getting a new name.

New name coming in hot (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Defense

__Crypto has covered its bases…__ in sports. Crypto brands spent $130M+ on NBA sponsorships alone last season, up from ~$2M in the previous season. Five crypto companies — including FTX, __Crypto.com__, and __[Coinbase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN/)__ — were responsible for 92% of NBA sponsorship spending in the crypto category. Crypto.com’s Lakers’ stadium-naming deal alone is reportedly worth $700M. But now that the Enron-style “[naming-rights curse](https://protos.com/has-the-naming-rights-curse-finally-hit-crypto/)” has hit FTX, sports orgs might need to cover their bases too.

Miami ditches “FTX Arena” as sponsorships with the bankrupt exchange haunt sports orgs

__Big opening weekend for Wakanda…__ __[Disney’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS/)__ “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” just [raked](https://www.axios.com/2022/11/14/black-panther-sequel-box-office-momentum) in $180M in North America, the second-biggest box-office haul of the year and the highest-grossing November debut ever. 

- __It’s a much-needed win__ for Disney, whose sales and earnings fell short of expectations last quarter despite rebounding attendance at its parks.
- __Big shoes to fill:__ “Wakanda Forever” was the first flick to crack $100M since July. But the super sequel fell short of the original “Black Panther,” which featured the late Chadwick Boseman ($202M on opening weekend). 

__It’s Marvel’s universe…__ we’re just living in it. The only movie that’s outperformed “Wakanda Forever” this year was another Marvel flick, the latest “Doctor Strange.” In fact, 9 of the top 15 domestic debuts in history are now Marvel films (not adjusted for inflation). 

- __Marvel mania:__ The seven Marvel movies that Disney’s released in the past two years have grossed $2.3B, more than a fifth of total box-office sales in that period. 
- __Well-versed:__ Disney uses its Marvel-verse to cross-promote shows, parks, and merch. It plans to build an Avatar-verse around its new “Avatar” film, which opens next month.

Versed

__It’s the “-verses” versus everyone…__ Disney has invested heavily in “theatrical universes” like the Marvel-verse and the “Star Wars”-verse, whose recognizable characters still attract large audiences even as theater attendance slumps. Last month, rival Hollywood heavyweight __[Warner Bros. Discovery](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WBD/)__ released “Black Adam” to bolster its growing DC-verse. But as studios focus on a few mega-blockbusters, theater chains like __[AMC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMC/)__ are suffering: US box-office sales this year are still a *third* below prepandemic levels.

Disney’s “Black Panther” sequel broke a November box-office record — another win for the Marvel-verse

*📊 Like if your banker did a show-and-tell, but left half the presentation at home…*

Crypto exchanges are in the spotlight after FTX’s bankruptcy. Now nine exchanges are rushing to reassure everyone that they've actually got customers' assets. __Binance__ said it would issue "[proof of reserves](https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/11/14/binance-promised-transparency-proof-of-reserves-crypto-ftx/)": cryptographic proof it holds the coins it claims. But proof of reserves has been criticized because it's only one part of an exchange's financial health. Another part: proof of *liabilities* (how much the exchange *owes*).

Heard on the Block: “proof of reserves”

The human population has doubled in just 48 years, hitting 8B this week

🏀 FTX Arena bounces

__The midterm hangover…__ isn’t over. It’s still too close to call, but the US might get a split government, with one GOP-controlled chamber of Congress. Stocks plunged Wednesday after midterm results didn’t show clear gridlock. Investors generally prefer when power’s shared, because historically that’s meant less legislation (it’s harder to agree on things). That can mean fewer potential blockers for business, regardless of which party’s in power. 

- __Democrats maintained__ their slim majority in the Senate after key victories in Nevada and Arizona over the weekend. Georgia’s runoff election is slated for December 6. 
- __If Republicans take the House__ (which they’re favored to) that’s enough to unlock gridlock. Either way, majorities will likely be slim within both chambers.  

__Ballot bubbles giving SAT flashbacks…__ From choosing lawmakers to voting on propositions, Americans’ ballot decisions could have big implications. A few sectors that could be affected:

- __Energy:__ Republican lawmakers have supported US energy independence, and that could lead to easier access to drilling permits if the GOP takes the House. 
- __Cannabis:__ Voters in Maryland and Missouri legalized recreational marijuana, joining 19 other states and DC. Meanwhile, Colorado voted to decriminalize and regulate some psychedelic substances (think: magic mushrooms). 
- __EVs:__ California voted down an extra tax to build EV infrastructure. __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT/)__ was the biggest backer of the prop, since the funds would’ve helped it meet the state’s requirements. 
- __Gambling:__ CA voters also struck down a prop that would’ve allowed gambling companies like __FanDuel__ and __[DraftKings](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DKNG/)__ to offer online sports betting.
- __Tobacco:__ And CA became the largest state to ban flavored-tobacco products after voters upheld the state’s ban. Tobacco titans like __[Philip Morris](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PM/)__ and __[RJ Reynolds](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RAI/)__ had spent big in hopes of overturning it.

Wall Street’s waiting (Kena Betancur/Getty Images)

Voted

__Investors care more about the Fed right now…__ Because the central bank has the levers to influence rates and inflation. Inflation was voters’ [most pressing](https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1134832876/inflation-is-top-issue-in-this-weeks-midterms) issue in these elections (two years ago it wasn’t on the radar). Markets rallied hard Thursday after news that inflation cooled more than expected last month, which suggests the Fed might slow its rate hikes (top of mind for investors).

How midterms could affect the markets, from inflation to energy to cannabis

__Major whiplash…__ Crypto exchange __FTX__ (including FTX US and 130 affiliated companies) filed for bankruptcy Friday after a whirlwind week revealed an $8B balance-sheet hole — and rival __Binance__ bailed on its takeover plan. Oh, *and* FTX halted customer withdrawals — but that didn’t stop $515M from being moved out of the exchange Friday night in a possible hack. Sam Bankman-Fried, the exchange's now former CEO, had been a Capitol Hill regular lobbying for industry-friendly regs. Now, that regulation's in doubt. Meanwhile, investors fear FTX's "contagion" could spread. One sign that it may have already: __BlockFi__ (which got bailed out by FTX in June) suspended withdrawals, citing FTX's downfall. 

__Googling “packing hacks”...__ to avoid the $50 luggage fee. Budget airlines are booming as more travelers turn to no-frill flights to hit the inflated skies. Last week, Irish airline __Ryanair__ reported record passengers and profits for its summer quarter. Meanwhile, US-based __Frontier__ saw sales jump 35% as passengers paid extra for perks (think: bearable legroom). Travel is still hot: even with airfare forecast to be the priciest in five years, half of Americans plan to travel this holiday season.

__Xi Jinping saw his shadow…__ and Chinese stocks may have six more weeks of winter. China’s tech giants posted their slowest growth *ever* in August as Beijing’s zero-Covid policy raised costs and hurt demand (because: more lockdowns). Chinese stocks popped this month on reopening rumors. But as Covid cases surged last week hawkish President Xi said he planned to “hold fast” to the strict policy (though he relaxed *some* rules on Friday). We’ll see how wounded giants __Alibaba__, __JD.com__, and __Tencent Music__ are faring when they report this week.

__Jingle bells in November…__ Retailers are getting into the holiday spirit early. __Walmart’s__ sales jumped 8% last quarter, but profits were squeezed as inflation-fatigued shoppers avoided big-ticket items like TVs. __Target’s__ profits fell 90% as it offered steeper discounts on overstocked goods. Still, holiday sales are expected to rise from last year, and retailers are already setting up festive displays to hype demand. But an unmerry combo of discounts and high costs could keep Walmart and Target from wowing investors when they report this week.

- __[HitTok](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4gOzlWfuufbhkgNYnGBQA1/articles/6WbU0NDw8OQzavUs2zgGWp/):__ From __Sony__ to __Universal Music__, the largest record labels want a bigger cut from __TikTok__ as the app becomes a hit-maker. While TikTok needs the music industry, the industry increasingly needs the Tok.
- __[iSag](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1rIPKyj7VdAtV8FpwShSUE/articles/gRGR2FVnkico17JfZqUlQ/):__ __Apple's__ expecting a drop in iPhone shipments this holiday season (picture: 3M fewer iPhone 14s than anticipated). Last week, China’s Covid policy triggered a weeklong shutdown at the main iPhone assembly site. 
- __[Alexa](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4sSb6rTTRHcOl77ZhrZz2R/articles/4s4UBkKJDUcEfl5DFMLZsx/):__ __Amazon's__ reportedly looking to cut costs, and Alexa could get downsized. But instead of __Meta__-sized layoffs, Amazon is said to be pushing workers to find roles in more lucrative divisions of the company.

China is nearly as wide as the US, but the entire country officially has just one time zone